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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat with Steve Adams: 4/28/25
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Steve Adams
12:24
Good afternoon all! We'll get this going at 1:30pm, but feel free to send in questions ahead of time.
1:30
Good afternoon!
Let's get going
GBS42
1:30
Is the era of the opener over, or at least the practice greatly diminished from its peak? Maybe I haven't been paying close enough attention, but it seems like openers aren't used very often any more.
Steve Adams
1:32
I don't think it's over by any means, but maybe it's not quite as en vogue as it was in the past. We also see teams more comfortable just trotting out bullpen days as opposed to the pure opener/bulk reliever setup. Brandon Eisert, Ben Casparius, Bryse Wilson, Keegan Akin and Justin Topa are among the relievers to "start" games this year.
Cat Herder
1:32
When Alex Cobb, or Ty Madden, are ready to come of the IL, is Kenta Maeda done in Detroit?  Yes, they owe him money but that roster spot of valuable.  They played a DH on Saturday and he was the only man not to come out of that pen and only had ONE low-leverage, but high-stress inning in a 7 run game on Sunday.
Steve Adams
1:33
It'll depend on the health of the rest of the roster, but between Maeda's struggles and usage (or lack thereof), yeah I think he's definitely at risk if they get healthier and avoid other injuries.
Jimmy Racer
1:33
Miles Mikolas has a 5.7 ERA, and a 3.09 FIP along with a 1.521 whip. Can you please explain how his FIP stat looks so good but the rest of his stats don't? Is the Cardinals defense that bad when Mikolas pitches? Is he unlucky? Or is the FIP stat not that relevant? Or something else? Thank you having the chat!
Steve Adams
1:35
FIP isn't giving him a ton of credit based on the Cardinals' defense. Mikolas has .321 BABIP, which is higher than average by about 30 points, but the bigger driver of that ERA/FIP discrepancy is his strand rate and lack of home runs allowed.

Strand rate for all pitchers tends to stabilize around 72%, give or take a percentage point. Mikolas is at 55% this year, so FIP is largely saying he's had some poor (but not egregious) luck on batted balls and that he's not likely to keep allowing this many of the men he puts on base to score.
1:36
But, FIP is also inherently flawed in other ways. For instance, it doesn't normalize home run/fly ball ratio. Mikolas hasn't allowed a single homer this year, which isn't sustainable, but FIP will treat it as though he can continue on with that all season
1:37
Metrics like xFIP (5.04 for Mikolas) and SIERA (5.20) will take that home run regression into account and project as if he were sitting around league average in HR/FB (about 11% this year)
FIP is still much more predictive year-to-year than ERA, but like any metric it has its flaws.
M’s Fan
1:38
Can Cal Raleigh be a top 4 MVP candidate if he hits .220/.310/.450 with his usual clutch HR and elite catcher defense
Steve Adams
1:40
That's pretty close to what he did last season and he finished 12th. I think if the M's had sneaked into the playoffs, he'd probably have gotten a few more votes. We also can't assume we'll see a trio of seasons as good as we did between Judge, Witt and Soto atop the ballot, so he could benefit a bit from that as well.

I still think top-4 would be a bit tough based on that slash line, but I also think Raleigh's capable of out-performing those rates and find it totally plausible that he's a top-5 finisher in MVP voting this year. He's a beast.
Bored at Work
1:40
Any players with horrible BABIP luck that you expect to improve over the course of the season? LaMonte Wade Jr. stands out to me with his .135 BABIP and getting robbed a couple of times during the Giants' latest homestand.
Steve Adams
1:44
Yeah, Wade is a good one. If you really want to find some positive regression guys, you can split by batted-ball type on FanGraphs' leaderboard and check who's gotten particularly unlucky on line-drives early on. Ezquiel Tovar is hitting .353 on his 17 liners this season, which sounds fine at first, but league-average BABIP on liners is .693, so he's actually been extremely unlucky on them. Yordan Alvarez (.500), Randy Arozarena (.462) and Anthony Santander   (.500) have been robbed of some line-drive hits, too.

Also could look at grounders for some egregiously low marks. Dansby Swanson runs well but is hitting .100 on grounders. That won't last. League average is .244. Tommy Edman and Andres Gimenez are hitting .114 on grounders. They're in a similar boat.
Roman Anthony
1:45
What happens when I join inevitably join the team?  Cedonne Rafaela to the bench or to Worcester?  How soon will it be?
Steve Adams
1:48
I don't think they need to send Rafaela to AAA. He can just start a game per week at like 4-5 positions and get largely regular playing time. Give him starts in CF, the corners, at 2B and at SS, and you can get his glove and speed in the lineup more often than not while also keeping a bunch of other guys fresh.

Plus, it's not like Trevor Story is a bastion of durability at shortstop. (Though the Sox also have Marcelo Mayer ripping AAA apart.) Whenever the Red Sox are comfortable bringing Anthony up, they'll just find more creative ways to get Rafaela into the game.
Lu Bob
1:49
Do you think the White Sox trade Luis Robert regardless of whether he rebounds this first half, simply to get SOMETHING before they have to pay him his option years?
Steve Adams
1:50
I'm not going to assume he'll have trade value. Robert is hitting .152/.275/.272 in 111 plate appearances. He's struck out at a 31.5% clip. Since last August, he's hitting .201/.266/.291 in 308 plate appearances with a 30.5% strikeout rate.
1:51
He's not hitting the ball hard. His chase rate is way higher than average. His contact rate is down, both off the plate and on pitches within the strike zone.
1:52
If he keeps playing like this, he's not going to have trade value and the Sox might just decline his 2026 option.
Blooming in Stl
1:52
Who does Chaim trade first? Maton, Helsley, Fedde, Matz, or maybe Arenado? That would bring back a nice haul and they’ll have Donovan and Nootbar to trade the next year if the rebuild continues.
Steve Adams
1:56
It's still John Mozeliak heading up baseball operations for this season. I've had that made clear to be even by people within the Cardinals organization; Bloom's focus still remains on the player development and player performance revamp. Player personnel stuff is still generally headed up by Mozeliak. Of course there's a collaboration there, but Bloom isn't going to be running point on trade talks or have final say.

Helsley and Fedde should've been gone this offseason. Fedde's stock is probably already down. He's missing way fewer bats.

I do expect each of Maton/Helsley/Matz/Fedde to be on the block this summer, but I worry for the Cardinals that they might've hampered their returns on Helsley and Fedde.
Rosario & Anderson
1:56
Why are we back in Atlanta? Does AA actually know what he's doing, or did he just get lucky in 2021 and is hoping bringing the same players back will recreate that magic??
Steve Adams
1:59
I don't understand the process here, but I haven't understood the process since their insane series of trades to acquire Jarred Kelenic in the first place.

As for Anthopoulos, he can both A) Be very good at his job and B) Have gotten crazy lucky with a series of deadline fliers in 2021.

He'd probably admit as much, that he was extremely fortunate with regard to how Rosario, Soler, Joc and Duvall performed that summer. You just don't see a GM go 4-for-4 like that when they're clearly taking a volume approach.
2:01
But I've also thought Anthopoulos is too willing to double down on that prior success. Every executive has some affinity for "his guys," but Anthopoulos seems more willing to bet big on past players than many of his peers.

He's not quite at AJ Preller-with-former-Rangers-prospects levels, but he's not too far off.
Sons of Pitches
2:01
At what point do fringe contenders like Arizona start to worry about a slow start? It's still early, but being buried in the NL West doesn't bode well for the September outlook when Central and East must be considered as well...
Steve Adams
2:03
I wouldn't really call The D-backs a slow-starting team this year. They're also not buried in the West. They're two games over .500 and just 3.5 out of first -- and that's with shaky performances from Zac Gallen and Corbin Burnes thus far. (Plus Jake McCarthy already having been optioned due to his own struggles.)

So, I suppose you can say the team has some slow starting players, but the record is fine despite those struggles, and if/when they get Burnes and Gallen on track, it's easy to argue there's more in the tank here.
Rox
2:04
Who would you rather have as your franchise catcher over the next five years (not fantasy related): William Contreras, Cal Raleigh, Adley, Sean Murphy, or someone else? Thanks!
Steve Adams
2:06
Oof. It's pretty close between Contreras and Raleigh. I would lean toward Cal... switch-hitter, elite defender, big numbers in a pitcher-friendly park.

I wouldn't fault anyone for taking Contreras, especially since he's 13 months younger, but Raleigh gets the slight nod for me.

Also, that's not a knock on either Rutschman or Murphy, who are both talented in their own right. Adley's bat has just cooled a bit since his first couple seasons and Murphy is already 30, so the five-year term in question here puts  him on the bottom of these options for me.
Andy Friedman
2:06
With both Muncy and Conforto struggling, plus Hye-Song and Pages looking better. Do you think one of Max or Michael get moved to the bench so Kim can play super utility player from the left side.
Steve Adams
2:08
Not after a month of the season, no, but if they're still floundering like this with no real signs of improvement come mid/late May, yeah I think either could be moved to a more limited role. They're both on one-year commitments. Muncy has a pretty long tenure and thus a long leash, I'm sure, but his K% is through the roof and he has a career-low contact rate on pitches within the strike zone
2:09
Conforto hasn't been as worrying in terms of under-the-hood numbers. But I didn't love that signing at the time, either.
Simpleton
2:10
The White Sox have an interesting situation this year, where Vaughn is simply not hitting (yes, he has good peripherals but we've heard that for years), and Tim Elko is on fire in Charlotte yet was not ranked in top 30 prospects in any service this year.  I think most Sox fans would love to see what the 26 year-old Elko could do with the .354/.432/.732 slash in AAA, but I wonder if the Sox front office is less inclined to do so because of his lack of 'prospect' status and still high K rate.  Also - I'm sure they would LOVE for Vaughn/Dalbec/Benintendi to show anything that might lead to a deadline deal for a lottery ticket at least.
Steve Adams
2:14
Elko's lack of prospect status is due in no small part to the K% you referenced. He's fanned in at least 29% of his plate appearances at every minor league stop. That's not a MLB-caliber hit tool, and he doesn't have much (any) defensive or baserunning value.

To your point, if Vaughn hits at all between now and July, they'll trade him for what they can get, and Elko probably gets a 2-month look down the stretch.

I'd have just non-tendered Vaughn and signed a cheap stopgap 1B (or just kept Sheets) to pair with Elko in the 1B/DH mix. I think one way or another, this is Vaughn's last year with the Sox and that Elko will get a late-season look, so long as he is healthy.
Alex Anthopoulos
2:14
If Ozzie Albies keep struggling like he has, is plausible that I don't pick his 7 million option for 2026?
Steve Adams
2:17
There's a $4MM buyout on Albies' $7MM club option next year. They're not cutting him loose for a net $3MM, no matter how much he struggles. Feasible that they could trade him and go another direction, I suppose.

All that said, I don't think it'll continue being an issue. Albies has the lowest strikeout rate of his career and his second-best walk rate. Career-best contact rate on pitches in the zone. Batted-ball quality is down a bit and was never elite to begin with, but he's just not going to keep hitting this poorly with an approach this good at the plate. His .233 BABIP is a career-low, and while some of that is because he's had a little spike in pop-ups, I still expect Albies to turn it around.
Kokonuts
2:18
Do the Reds have a good shot at getting Austin Wynns and his split contract passed through waivers again if they DFA him when Stephenson comes back from the IL?
Steve Adams
2:23
I don't have the details on his rate of pay in the minors -- I could look into it, certainly -- but generally don't think a team is going to look at 33 PAs from Wynns and think he's suddenly an offensive behemoth who must be claimed. No one thinks he can keep hitting .400 with plus-plus power. Maybe a catching-desperate team makes a claim, but the smart money is on a career .240/.287/.352 hitter coming back down to earth in rapid fashion anyhow.

If Wynns hit waivers, I would lean toward expecting someone to claim him just because he's been passed around waivers before and teams clearly like his glove and game-calling, but I wouldn't have high extremely high confidence in him being claimed.
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