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Orioles Outlook '23
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Mark P
The Triple O (also known as the Orioles Offseason Outlook) is up, so now it's time to chat about the O's!  Let's jump into your questions...
The future
Do you think the orioles will prioritize acquiring an ace or a big veteran bat this off season?
Mark P
Pitching is the most obvious need, as if the O's did get a veteran bat, it might be an Aaron Hicks type on just a one-year deal.  Baltimore doesn't really have many (any?) holes around the diamond anyway, and they don't want to block a position with so many position player prospects on the way up
What do you think will be done about Anthony Santander? What is his trade value?
Am I on this team next season?
Mark P
With just one year of arb control left, Santander does look like a decent trade candidate, since Kjerstad and company might be ready for a bigger spot already.

As to what Baltimore might get in return, the Jays' trade return for Teoscar Hernandez (a good controllable reliever in Erik Swanson) last winter could be a comp.  Teams generally aren't too eager to overpay for one year of a good but not great corner outfielder, and it can be argued that Hernandez had more value than Santander.

Now, what becomes interesting is if Baltimore trades Santander AND a prospect as part of a larger deal.  For instance, if you're a Guardians team that badly needs outfield help and has Shane Bieber maybe available, Santander + prospect might get that deal done.  The prospect in question would naturally be more of a 15-20 range type of guy.
Oriole nut
Thr Orioles in my opinion need to extend Santander… trading him is a step back and you could extend him for 4 or 5 years while that would be before younger stars start making more money.. You can probably trade one of your outfielders depending who is valued more and open a spot for younger players.. I don’t want to see Orioles without Santander .. needs extension
Mark P
This isn't an unreasonable take, as the O's already known what they have in Santander.  But given how wary this team seems about spending, I find it hard to believe they'd extend Santander when there are a lot of other higher-priority extension targets
What are the chances the team doesn't make any big moves this offseason?  From where I sit, ownership won't allow any big expenditures on free agents.  And Elias still needs more time to evaluate the up and coming talent.  So we're looking at just a few waiver pick-ups for the bullpen, right?
Mark P
They spent $23MM last winter on Gibson, Frazier, and Givens.  So if they're willing to make a similar expenditure, that could bring in a higher level of a one-year free agent or two.
But, your thought of a relatively quiet winter is possible, just because Elias (whether due to ownership restrictions or due to his own caution) hasn't really done much to enhance this roster.  In fairness, the O's have been so great at rebuilding from within that Elias might not know the big weak spots yet, and it's worth noting that he's been quite good at finding unheralded gems like Cano or O'Hearn.
Are the Orioles a sleeper in the Mike Trout trade talks? Would a package headlined by Cedric Mullins and Joey Ortiz be enough for Trout at this stage in his career?
Mark P
To be clear, the "Mike Trout trade talks" might be non-existent.  We won't known anything about Trout's future until we see what happens with Ohtani, and if Ohtani leaves Anaheim, even then there's no guarantee that Trout demands a trade, or that the Angels are willing to move him
And since the O's don't seem likely to be absorbing Trout's big contract, they'd have to give up much more prospect capital to convince the Angels to eat more (most?) of Trout's deal

I realize that it's Mike Trout and he's awesome, but one would think that if Baltimore did make a big all-in type of swap, it wouldn't be for a player with Trout's injury history
Baby birds
can you rate the probability and guess potential deals this off-season for extensions for Adley, Gunnar, and Grayson?
Mark P
If you believe John Angelos, zero percent chance.
Who is more likely an oriole at the start of the year Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber, or one of the marlins pitchers?
Mark P
Burnes or Bieber seem likelier just because we don't know what direction the Marlins will take yet under their next GM.  

For the Brewers and Guardians, presumably they will want to contend in 2024, so either would fit for a deal of pitching for some MLB-ready young talent (which the Orioles have in abundance)
If the Os sign absolutely nobody this off-season, what place do you think they’ll be expected to finish in the AL East?
Mark P
They'd still be a strong contender to at least make the playoffs, and maybe very well finish first again.  The other AL East teams have more pressing problems in my view than the Orioles, who might be better based on internal improvements alone.
Jackson Holliday
When am I up with the big club? Opening day? Past Supet
Mark P
The PPI gives the Orioles some temptation to just start Holliday right away, but my guess is they keep him in the minors a couple of extra weeks for the purposes of gaining another team of control.

Between Westburg, Urias, Mateo, and Ortiz, the O's can claim that they don't "need" Holliday since they're already covered at the two open infield positions
Orioles Fan
Likelihood that we see Hicks, Mullins, Hays, and Santander all back? Who is the most likely extension candidate of the list?
Mark P
As noted, Santander is the likeliest to be dealt for salary alone.  But, Mullins or Hays being moved also shouldn't be ruled out.

Frankly, I'm not sure I see any staying beyond 2025.  Kjerstad, Cowser, Stowers, Beavers, Fabian, Norby can play some corner OF.....Baltimore can just slide its next generation in place
Big fan of him, but how long (or short) is the leash on Jorge Mateo?
Mark P
Not long in terms of being a starter, per se, but very valuable as a bench player.  I see Mateo as likelier to be kept than Urias, since Urias' better bat makes him more attractive as a trade piece for another team
Ohtani to the Orioles yes helps with starting pitcher and outfielder \dh
Mark P
The Orioles aren't going to suddenly splurge on a $500MM contract.

And's remarkable how kinda plausible this would be, in a world where ownership was willing to spend.  The O's are spending so little on payroll that even if Ohtani was suddenly added at $50MM a year or something, they're still maybe middle of the pack among MLB payrolls.  Talk about a revenue boost, as well.

That said, if the Orioles did decide to spend, locking up Rutschman, Henderson, Rodriguez, etc. to extensions would be the first priority
Just joining in, so apologies if this has been asked earlier.  Thoughts on the "need" for acquiring an ace SP?  I don't see it.  Look at what the staff did after the ASB, and Bradish and GRod are only getting better.
Mark P
Obviously the hope is that Rodriguez can quickly become a frontline ace, and Bradish's development is fantastic for Baltimore.  Between these two, Means, and Kremer, that's a solid starting four right there.

That said, adding someone like a Corbin Burnes obviously makes this rotation a lot better.  Even if the O's aren't willing to sign a free agent pitcher to a big long-term deal, going to get a one-year splurge like Burnes or Bieber makes a lot of sense
With a start of Burnes for Mayo, what has to be added from either side to make a fair deal?
Mark P
If the O's were willing to part with Mayo for one year of Burnes, really, not much else?  Mayo and a lower-level prospects or two?
What are the odds that the O's sign a 1 year deal to extend their lease at Camden Yards and continue to agree to work toward a longer lease? If the O's sign a 1 year deal, the whole MOU was a PR sham right?
Mark P
There was already talk that a one-year extension might be required as a stopgap, while they finalize all the many details of this larger 30-year agreement.
Hi Mark!  Hard to believe we are almost done with the Outlook Series.  They've been great!  Can you explain how Felix Bautista is owed $2 million through 2025 please?  Baseball Reference lists no contract.  He only has 2 years of service time so one more year of minimum MLB wage then arbitration.  Did the Orioles sneak an extension in there?  Why?  Relievers are so volatile?
Mark P
The O's signed Bautista to a two-year extension in late September, when they announced his TJ surgery
It covers Bautista's first arb year, and gives him a bit of a payday (and the O's a slight discount) as he recovers from surgery
Kevin Costner
If the orioles seek controllable young pitching, which teams best align as a trade partner?
Mark P
Guardians, Mariners, Giants, Dodgers....that last one with the caveat that LA is looking for veteran pitching this offseason, and they probably won't move any of their youngsters until they've gotten an experienced arm or two to plug their rotation holes
Brining Hicks back at the minimum salary seems like a no brainer, but do you think someone offers him a multi-year deal since they get him for free in year 1?  Maybe something like the minimum in year 1, and then a vesting option or even guaranteed dollars for year 2 once the Yankees are off the hook?  Switch hitting veterans who can play CF and hit a little (Yankees tenure non-withstanding) would typically sign for something like Aaron Frazier money, no?
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