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MLBTR Chat: 3/29/23
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Anthony Franco
5:58
Good evening everyone! Happy Opening Day eve
Excited to kick off the final chat of the offseason
baileyman
5:59
Lukes over Lopez....r u surprised
Anthony Franco
5:59
Not really. I think Otto's just a depth infielder and they've got a decent amount of second base options right now
Swung and Missed
5:59
I'm confused about how the new rule changes deal with service time manipulation.  Has the Kris Bryant problem been solved?  Will we see teams holding hot prospects in the minors for the first couple of weeks?
Anthony Franco
6:00
Too early to say that definitively but the Mariners carrying Julio Rodríguez, Tigers with Spencer Torkelson and Cardinals with Jordan Walker would all be decent signs for the PA in that regard
6:01
I generally agree the provisions they put in for service time manipulation aren't that likely to move the needle for teams. An extra draft pick at the back end of the first round isn't worth what an additional season of control over Julio Rodríguez would be (if they hadn't extended him anyways obviously)
6:03
But I also think the service time arguments take on an outsized importance compared to how few players it actually affects. It's a huge deal for the Bryant-level talents obviously, but for the majority of rookies, extracting a seventh year of control isn't that significant
Keylockman
6:03
If the Yankees pick up Donaldson's contract option for next year does that lower the AAV and get the Yankees under the tax for this season and allow them not to be a two time offender?
Anthony Franco
6:04
The option's a separate decision. Can't lower this year's AAV by picking up next year's option, no
6:05
They could agree to a separate contract that does that, although I imagine the league wouldn't allow them to just guarantee an extra $10MM for 2024 to diminish the immediate CBT hit. They'd probably have to make more of a commitment, which they won't want to do
Raleigh
6:05
The coming DFA/trade of Christian Pache seemed totally predictable given his performance and one option available.  The failure to keep a significant piece in the Matt Olsen deal seems like a major failure on the part of the A's management.  Thoughts?  Thanks
Anthony Franco
6:06
Yeah I don't see any other way to view it than as a huge miss
6:07
If Langeliers turns out to be a good catcher, they'll have still gotten something out of it. But for the #2 player in the Olson trade return to be DFA and traded for a minor league reliever within 12 months is a disastrous outcome for Oakland
B Snit’s Bongos
6:07
Which Manager(s) will be on the hot seat if their club is below .500 at the end of May?
Anthony Franco
6:09
Phil Nevin's that guy for me. I think every other manager either is a new hire, is on a team that doesn't expect to be good, or has built up enough of a track record that their teams wouldn't consider moving on after two bad months
6:10
Maybe Torey Lovullo falls in there too but I think it'd have to be a disastrous two months for Arizona to do that. If they're like two games under .500, can't see why they'd move on with how much they seem to love him
B Snit’s Bongos
6:10
Which bad contract is most likely to be DFA’d before the All-Star Break?
Anthony Franco
6:11
Madison Bumgarner or Marcell Ozuna would be my pick, at least among guys who are under contract beyond this year
Guest
6:11
If Daniel Murphy shows he can still hit is he better than Vogey?
Anthony Franco
6:11
Ha, we've got a long way to go before we get to that point. Murphy was a worse hitter than Vogelbach for his last two seasons in Colorado and hasn't seen an MLB pitch in two years
6:12
It'd be a cool story to see him come back out of retirement and play his way into another MLB shot, but the chances that he ends up as a regular on a big league team this season (particularly a contender) are less than 5%
Dodger Dude
6:13
Now that there are 12 postseason teams (ugh!) do you think that will further stop mid and small market teams from spending? The Pirates, A's, and O's were the three lowest spending teams last year (Spotrac) but were the 8th, 5th, and 4th most profitable (Forbes). There has been talk but do you think a salary floor would work?
Anthony Franco
6:14
Not a salary floor proponent, no. It'd require a dramatic overhaul of the revenue structure around the league (presumably with some kind of cap as well) and I don't think it'd legislate out rebuilding regardless
6:16
Feels like what would happen is teams in situations in which Oakland or Cincinnati are now would acquire other teams' underwater contracts to "buy" minor league talent while meeting the floor. I don't think that'd make for a more compelling product than we have now
Old Fart
6:16
Whine Alert - I'm one of those traditionalist but I got use to the ONE wild card team in each league. Now there are THREE (ugh!). Last year the NLCS had two teams that were a combined 36 games behind their divisional winner. I know anything can happen in a short series but with a long 162 game schedule it doesn't seem right that three teams with over 100 wins are forced to play a team who finished 3rd in their division with 87 wins. I know because of money there is no going back but please tell me 12 postseason teams is as far as we are going? Thanks for letting me vent.
Anthony Franco
6:17
I doubt it stops here permanently. Postseason expansion just seems to be an upward trend for leagues. It's more TV revenue which can trickle down into player salaries, and the league and Players Association are ultimately making decisions they expect to be most profitable for their constituencies
6:18
The PA was resistant to 14 teams last time around and can't just agree to push playoff expansion in every CBA negotiation. There needs to be some incentive for teams to upgrade their rosters that goes beyond an inherently very random playoff setup
6:19
But the long-term trend is that this stuff goes up over time. I see no reason to think that 12's the magic number, just enjoy this while it lasts
I liked 10 btw
Armchair GM
6:19
Out of last year’s teams that were worst in their division, which team will be the first in their division in the future?
Anthony Franco
6:20
So this is Boston, Kansas City, Oakland, Washington, Pittsburgh, Colorado
I think it has to be the Red Sox. They're at least trying to compete immediately and they have such a larger margin for error than those other teams from a payroll perspective
6:21
Pittsburgh's in the best spot of the rest of the group, I think, but it's an uphill battle with a bottom five payroll
Big Tex
6:21
How about them rangers see them making the playoffs
Anthony Franco
6:22
I think they'll hang around the Wild Card mix but ultimately come up a little short. I don't like the outfield and the bullpen's still iffy
They're markedly better than last year but still the #4 team in a tough division for me
Wizard
6:22
Who’s the odd man out in the cardinals outfield? Seemed crowded before Walker got the call to mlb
Anthony Franco
6:23
Looks like Dylan Carlson for now (with Alec Burleson and Juan Yepez pushed to the minors) but someone will get hurt eventually and it'll sort itself out
Armchair GM
6:23
if you could be a GM of any team, which team’s current roster would give you the easiest job in being successful?
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