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MLBTR Chat: 3/1/23
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Anthony Franco
6:01
Hey everyone, hope you're all having a good evening!
AJ
6:01
Do you see the Orioles being a perennial contender in the near future a la The Astros? If so, what’s the window and when do you think they should open the wallet in free agency?
Anthony Franco
6:02
Astros level is a little more than I'd project. They've done an incredible job with player development. There's not a ton of overlap between their 2017 and 2022 rosters. They just pretty seamlessly transitioned from one championship core to another
6:04
That said, Baltimore's position player core looks like one that could compete for the bulk of the coming decade. Not quite as sold on the pitching but obviously Grayson Rodriguez has a chance to be really good and sometimes pitching kind of pops up out of nowhere with unexpected players taking steps forward from a velocity perspective
6:05
I think they should've dipped into free agency more to address the rotation this offseason but spending by next winter is a must
Sue Shi
6:05
Who wins the Reds SS job?  Barrero obviously doesn't have it and De La Cruz doesn't look ready yet for big league pitching in the early going. A veteran like  Newman or  a youngster like McLain?
Anthony Franco
6:06
I assume it's Newman as a stopgap for a couple months. If Barrero hits well in Louisville, maybe he gets one last chance before De La Cruz eventually takes the job towards the end of the season or early in '24
6:07
McLain has always felt more like a utility guy than an everyday shortstop to me. Just a little too much swing-and-miss for a guy who doesn't have overwhelming raw power because of his size
Best 2023?
6:07
Arizona, San Francisco, or North Side Chicago? All on the good/bad mediocrity bubble but each took their own path to get there. Cubs have the upper hand because of their weak division?
Anthony Franco
6:08
I think you're right to tier them together, could see a reasonable case for ordering them any way. Guess I'd lean towards San Francisco at the top of the group but they all feel .500-ish
Kevin
6:08
If Tyler O'Neill proves healthy enough to play CF for an extended stretch, does he surpass Bryan Reynolds as a trade target for CF needy teams?
Anthony Franco
6:09
Reynolds has a safer profile given the more consistent on-base numbers and an extra year of club control. He's more valuable even if O'Neill can play center
Jake Taylor
6:10
It's inevitable at this point that the Padres are going to sign Profar, right?  Preller's not going to let one of his guys hang out to dry when he has a bottomless supply of cash to spend.
Anthony Franco
6:11
They have Soto/Tatis lined up for corner outfield work with Carpenter and Cruz at designated hitter. Don't think Profar fits on the roster anymore
I know that hasn't stopped the Padres in the past but I can't see how they'd make this one work
B Snit’s Bongos
6:11
Which non-roster invite is best positioned to START on Opening Day?
Anthony Franco
6:12
I'd probably come up with something better if I had more time to look back at where every NRI landed but the first one that comes to mind is Harold Castro in Colorado
6:13
If Brendan Rodgers has to start the year on the IL after dislocating his shoulder yesterday, feels like it's either Castro or Alan Trejo to start the year at second base
Raleigh
6:13
Will the A's DFA Christian Pache?  Or will they keep him not wanting to accept the serious error they made in obtaining a CF who can't hit a lick?  Thanks.
Anthony Franco
6:14
I don't think we're at DFA level yet -- he can really defend and is still only 24 -- but they're obviously in a bit of a catch-22 with him being out of options but clearly not an MLB-caliber hitter right now
6:15
Guessing he just sticks on the active roster as a fourth outfielder and gets like 250-300 PA's to see if he can take any kind of step forward at the plate
Rocky
6:16
The Gavin Lux injury looks bad.  The Dodgers have a couple of young players who could step in, but look like a down grade - especially given that Trea Turner was SS last year.  Will the Dodgers look for a lower cost veteran in a trade, try to acquire a young prospect from a team with a surplus (Guardians come to mind), or ride it out with what they have?
Anthony Franco
6:18
No matter what they do, it's going to be a downgrade from Trea Turner obviously. Think they just start with Miguel Rojas now -- he's a viable if lower-end regular based on the defense, and that trade looms pretty large now. Could try again at the deadline (maybe Tim Anderson or Amed Rosario come available) if it's not working
Elysian
6:18
With Pitchers throwing continually harder, new restrictions on the pitcher clock, and more base stealing attempts, it seems like premium Catchers will now be more valuable than ever before.
Anthony Franco
6:19
I think an electronic strike zone, which feels like it's coming a couple years from now, will eventually diminish the receiving aspect of the position. But yeah, arm strength is more important now than it has been in years
6:20
The game-calling/leadership aspect of it is always significant but not something that's really quantifiable for people outside the organization
Raleigh
6:20
JJ Bleday for Puk.  As with many of the A's trades of late, I do not understand.  What do the A's see in Bleday that seemingly no one else does.  And what do they not like about Puk that Miami can't see?  Thanks.
Anthony Franco
6:23
Yeah the Bleday/Puk deal was the most perplexing of any of the A's trades for me. I did something for Front Office subscribers on it a couple weeks ago but I'm with you, don't really share their optimism on Bleday. He had a great draft year at Vandy and walks but hits a ton of balls in the air (which doesn't feel like a great thing in Oakland) and swings and misses a lot
Chris
6:23
Hi Anthony, who do you think are 5 Hall of famers that are currently playing that aren't necessarily obvious?
Anthony Franco
6:24
Hmm, this is an interesting. I don't think I'll get to five but a few people come to mind.
6:25
Paul Goldschmidt probably gets there now that he's got the MVP. Needs a couple more years to boost the counting stats but the rate production is right there for a HOF first baseman
6:27
José Ramírez and Xander Bogaerts aren't in there right now but feel like guys who could play their way into the conversation with a couple more star-level seasons in their early 30's
6:29
As far as later-career guys go, I'll be curious to see what the electorate feels about Evan Longoria. I don't think he gets in -- seems like more of a Hall of Very Good type to me -- but he's 19th in career bWAR among third basemen and had an incredible start with Tampa Bay. Seems like someone who could get decent support from analytically inclined or peak-focused voters and hang around the ballot for 10 years
Paul
6:29
Do you think because of the Taylor injury Sal Frelick or Tyler Naquin will make the Brewers opening day roster?
Anthony Franco
6:30
Naquin more so than Frelick. Naquin's more of a veteran stopgap call if Taylor's out for the first few weeks of the season. Once you call up Frelick, the hope is he's playing every day from that point and never heading back to Nashville
Barry Bonds and his Fish and Chip Adventure
6:31
Going by Spring Training, do you think the pitch clock will be a good addition?
Anthony Franco
6:32
Fully on board. It'll lead to some awkwardness for the first few weeks and then fade into the background while moving things along
Buster
6:33
Good afternoon. In thinking about player stats, which do you value more that gives a good profile for a hitter and for a pitcher? What do execs look at?
Anthony Franco
6:35
If you're looking for just one catch-all number, I'd take wRC+ for a hitter. But assuming I have access to more than that, then broadly I'm looking at the player's contact rate, chases on pitches outside the strike zone, and consistency of hard contact when they put balls in play
6:36
For a pitcher, my starting point is essentially swing-and-miss rate. Obviously the quality of the pitcher's stuff (velocity, movement, etc.) matters, but the ability to miss bats -- particularly inside the strike zone -- is a hell of a starting point
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