JotCast | Klawchat 9/7/17

Klawchat 9/7/17

Keith Law

1:00

Things were good when we were young. Klawchat.

Chris

1:00

I'm IN on Plawecki. Is that nuts? Low K rate and better D than d'Arnaud make me a believer.

Keith Law

1:01

Not nuts; I've liked him in the past, too, before Teflon Terry decided it was smart to trash his own young player to the press.

Connor

1:01

Corey Ray, Isan Diaz, Lucas Erceg, Trent Clark, Marcos Diplan all had down years at Carolina. Coincidence or organizational issue?

Keith Law

1:02

Doubt it's a coincidence when that many hitters all scuffle at one level. Clark hadn't really hit well last year either, so I might take him out of the equation, but the others all came in with track record and/or pedigree and fell totally flat. That said, Gatewood and Harrison both had breakout years for the same club - but both had been handled very conservatively and given lots of time to fail and adjust.

Todd

1:02

Where would you assign AJ Puk to start next season, and what is his ceiling and the probability of him getting close to it?

Keith Law

1:03

Probably back in AA. Maybe a #2 ceiling, but low probability of getting the command and control required to reach it.

Chris

1:03

You see anything promising from Jhoan Urena or David Thompson?

Keith Law

1:04

I do not.

EricVA

1:04

My wife and I have lived in the DC area for a long time. We love the culture and culinary options that come with DC but hate the high cost of living. Now we pay child care that's equal to the cost of our mortgage. We've always been looking to relocate. Recently I was looking at the Wilmington area as an option. Is there enough going on that we wouldn't be bored? Is Philly the closest option for entertainment?

Keith Law

1:04

Philly is the closest option for much of anything. Delaware's cost of living is low, and the state's politics generally align well with my own, but you aren't moving here for the food or entertainment scenes. I'm 35 minutes from downtown Philly, though, so I have access to it.

Josh

1:04

The Orioles just called up Austin Hays. He has performed tremendously at both high-A and AA this year (in scarily identical fashion). What do you expect him to become long-term?

Keith Law

1:05

I like Austin Hays and think he's a regular, but you can't call a 4.5% walk rate for a corner outfielder performing "tremendously." He's going to have to tame the aggressiveness - he's not a hacker, but MLB pitchers aren't going to give him as many pitches to drive early in the count.

Steve

1:05

Of the many paperbacks/hardcovers you read, which do you keep, and how do you organize them in the bookshelves in your home?

Keith Law

1:06

I keep maybe a quarter of them - books I absolutely loved, books by certain authors (Wodehouse, Greene, Waugh, Chandler), books I think my wife or daughter might want to read. I sell or donate the rest. I so rarely re-read anything that it doesn't make sense to keep a book just because it looks nice on the shelf.

Erix

1:07

Thoughts on Nate Pearson's start yesterday?

Keith Law

1:07

I wasn't there.

Raphael

1:07

Why does age matter more for hitting prospects than pitchers?

Keith Law

1:08

The short answer is that past studies have shown it matters much more for hitters - that performing when young for a level is a huge positive indicator, and being old for a level is a strong negative - than for pitchers. I think a longer scouting answer would include the possibility that a younger pitcher already has major-league quality stuff whereas very young hitters are still developing their approaches even if they're physically mature.

Dodger fans

1:08

Oh, so that's what regression to the mean is.

Keith Law

1:11

Like Cheryl C told Tastee-Taste, it's a motherfucker.

Marc

1:11

Thoughts on Flaherty's first few starts? Why will he eventually be better than Weaver, who's been impressive in small sample?

Keith Law

1:12

Don't like judging anyone on two starts - or one, as I saw with Gohara yesterday on my internets - but I think Flaherty has several advantages over Weaver, the biggest of which is an above-average to plus breaking ball. I think he's a 2 or 3, whereas Weaver is a 4.

Josh

1:12

Do you sleep? I highly appreciate all the wide ranging content you generate, but I have no idea how I could be that efficient. I have only read 5 and listened to 8 books so far this year, for example.

Keith Law

1:13

I read fast, I don't watch a lot of TV, and I rarely do 'nothing.' I can't even mow the lawn without a podcast (Grierson & Leitch - one episode almost exactly gets me through the whole half acre) or an audiobook going.

Dr. Bob

1:13

Indulge me a moment regarding a Mike Trout trade. Why couldn't a team like, say, St. Louis put together a package. The Angels have no farm system and not enough talent at the major league level. The Cardinals (and other teams might fit as well) have tremendous depth, though no real standout players and in need of a shakeup. Why couldn't they put together a package of 8-10 players that would help re-stock both the Angels' big club and the minor leagues? They would still have core players to add to Trout to build a competitive team.

Keith Law

1:14

The obstacle has always been the Angels' owner, who doesn't want to trade his Mickey Mantle. With the team on the edge of a playoff berth this year, I doubt he'll change his mind any time soon.

Dan

1:14

Did the Phillies break an unwritten rule in flipping Nicasio to the Cards when Huntington pretty much said he wouldn't deal to them because they lowballed him? Does this affect their ability to do deals with teams?

Keith Law

1:14

I'm not a fan of unwritten rules, but I don't think the Phils broke one here anyway.

1:14

In the wake of some fans' response to the Michael Bennett incident, and to Colin Kaepernick and other athletes who take action, and as I watch guys like Jose Reyes and Aroldis Chapman not only awarded the privilege of professional athletics but touted by teams' social media depts., based on your front office experience, is their anything the average fan can do to force teams in all leagues to be more actively socially responsible? I've long since given up on the NFL, but my kids still like it and I don't want to completely eliminate all sports from my life, but I'm feeling like no other option exists but to tune out. Thanks for the chats and for tackling tough issues like this and others.

Keith Law

1:14

Sports teams and leagues recognize one language, that of the dollar. If people stop watching and stop attending, the entities will change their policies.

Jack

1:15

Overall, what do you think of the pitching in the Phillies system?

Keith Law

1:16

Ton of depth in arms who might be starters. Good chance there's no one there who's more than an above-average starter. You can dream a little on Sixto with the 80 fastball.

Terrence

1:16

After that exchange with Avisail Garcia, Bauer seemed to pitch better while angry. Fangraphs had an interesting article about that, and how normally people want their pitchers to be calm on the mound. Are there some guys you just let them be as mad, weird, crazy as they want as long as it helps?

Keith Law

1:17

I saw Johan Oviedo (STL) pitch for State College the other night, and he was really disappointing - 89-91, overusing the CB, not much of a CH - but did touch 93 once. I asked around, and was told sometimes he'll show that 93-95 after giving up a homer or other big hit. So if it's in there, and what he's showing most of the time isn't good enough (it's not), maybe he'd be better if he were just regularly pissed off.

addoeh

1:17

Where should the "blame" go for Yankees-Red Sox stealing signs fiasco? Is the line drawn where modern technology shouldn't be used, but all else is more or less fair game? Should teams do a better job of changing up their signals?

Keith Law

1:17

Boston's biggest mistake was getting caught.

Adam

1:17

Do you have more faith in Jo Adell or Heliot Ramos long term?

Keith Law

1:17

That sounds like a question of probability, so I'd say Ramos. Adell has a much higher ceiling.

Lee D, LA

1:18

Keith -- I know about SSS and all, but would the D-Backs be favored over the Dodgers in a 7 game series right now?