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Klawchat 2/20/25
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Keith Law
1:01
I'm tripping, I'm sliding, I'm riding through the back like Klawchat.
Mjay
1:02
I bought and enjoyed both of your books. I know you’re busy but I live in hope that you’re planning another. I’m don’t have hope for much else right now
Keith Law
1:02
I don't have one in the works yet, but this is definitely the year for me to start one.
davealden53
1:02
Who will be at shortstop for the Dodgers on Opening Day 2026 (next year)?  Mookie Betts, Alex Freeland, or the field?
Keith Law
1:03
Not Betts, I hope. He's just not good enough to play there. Freeland is probably the best bet for a single name - he was on my top 100 this year and is pretty close to the majors. I'd like to get a better read on his defense at SS in AAA.
PhillyJake
1:03
How do you explain the fall of of Henry Davis. I don't expect players to duplicate their AAA numbers in the majors, but a drop of OBA from .401 to .283 and a slugging drop of .555 to .212 is an outlier!  One would think both of these should be at least .100 points higher.
Keith Law
1:04
I really think pushing him to a new position (RF) in the majors derailed his development, especially because he wasn't good there at all, and that leaked back into his at bats. The gap between his high-minors performance and his major-league performance has no other clear explanation.
davealden53
1:04
Many projections put 2025 starts for Noah Schultz at a half-dozen.  Over or under?
Keith Law
1:04
Under.
Mike
1:04
Klaw, Love your chats. Its why I subscribe to the Athletic. Question on the Mets. They have so many position players that overlap. I know not everyone will pan out, but are they best off trading one of Jett, Acuna, Gilbert or even Mauricio as they overlap?
Keith Law
1:05
Yes. Probably not Mauricio until he's back and shows he's healthy enough to play somewhere on the dirt.
Dr. Bob
1:05
You always argue against promoting a player based on ST performance. I understand the reasons. However, how does a team fill roster spots that have not already been decided? ST has to factor in there somehow.
Keith Law
1:06
I think teams should enter ST with a preference list for each of those spots, and then use the exhibition games to see who's healthy, who's in the best shape, who might have changed something (new swing, new pitch, better pitch/batted-ball data) that would upend that order. I don't think using superficial ST results like batting average or homers should impact the decision at all.
Mike
1:06
Klaw, what are your thoughts on both automated balls/strikes or the challenge system? I have seen the challenge system in minor league games. I like it. Quick answers on a challenge.
Keith Law
1:06
Yes. Yes to all of it.
Nils
1:07
I often hear of prospects' ceilings, in terms of high ceiling, low ceiling, unlikely to reach ceiling, etc.  I know we can assume the stars in the league have reached their ceiling but I would be curious of what big leaguers are/were stars yet didnt even reach what you thought of as their ceiling and vice versa what every day players reached their respective ceilings.  Any examples?
Keith Law
1:09
Carl Crawford comes to mind - I mentioned that in passing in his son's (Justin) writeup last offseason and people took it to mean that I thought Carl was a bad player. I just think he had HoF upside. I remember seeing him at 20 and being astounded by his athleticism and how easy he made the game look on both sides of the ball. But he never seemed to work at his craft and at some point he didn't keep up his conditioning. He had one superstar-level season, his walk year (7.0 bWAR), at age 28. The remainder of his career he produced just 3.6 bWAR and he was effectively done at 32.
Buckner86
1:09
Can Bobby Miller still be a #1 starter?   What do you want to see from him this spring and what do you expect?
Keith Law
1:10
Health first, then some semblance of the control he showed in the minors.
Mike Trout
1:10
Is there any hope to convincing people Trump's actions are bad, especially when they sound good? For example the Gaza ceasefire, ending the Ukraine war, and DOGE seem well-received but all it takes is a little extra thought to see each is setting up more problems.
Keith Law
1:10
I don't think you're convincing true believers that anything this Administration does is bad. It's the people who are getting hit by these actions - people who've lost their jobs because of these arbitrary job and program cuts, or know someone who lost their job from them - who are going to be the most open to rational arguments.
Nervous Flyball Pitcher
1:11
Would you ever publish a top 200?
Keith Law
1:11
Absolutely not. I'm one person. I couldn't do that well, and I think it would be more clickbaity than informative.
CK
1:11
What sort of package would it take for the Cubs to get Cease back?
Keith Law
1:11
Sorry, I don't know the answers to questions like those. We have other writers who are more plugged into the trade market.
Afterthought
1:11
It seems like some teams will pick multiple players from a college (sometimes across several years). Is this just coincidence, or is there an implication that teams rate the colleges' player dev especially high or low?
Keith Law
1:12
It could also be that certain colleges are very good at recruiting or developing specific types of players. Any team that drafts a lot of college guys is going to see a lot of SEC/ACC schools pop up again and again. You could also have a scenario where a team feels like they have particularly good connections to a college so they get better access to the players and know their makeup well.
Jason
1:12
What are your thoughts on Jesus Made? Future star? Better than Chourio?
Keith Law
1:13
The answer to that is in the top 100 and in the Brewers org report (same player capsule in both places).
Billy
1:13
I know you don't pay attention to other lists, but there was a mention that Blake Mitchell has poor plate discipline on another list. I've seen his chase rate was around 19-20% this past season which seems more than good to me. Am I missing something? Is it more his swing decisions need work or is that evaluation just incorrect?
Keith Law
1:13
I don't know who said that or why, so I can't comment.
Braydon
1:14
If you knew a draft prospect would become a Top 10 closer (or high leverage reliever) during most of their control years but have no chance to start, what would be the draft range of that prospect?
Keith Law
1:14
Second round. Maybe the comp round in a thin year.
Corey
1:14
Is a true 6 man rotation sustainable for a full season like what Boston is likely to attempt ?   Likely there are injuries which is the point but in the event they all stay healthy ?
Keith Law
1:15
Why wouldn't it be? It might be the future if it means starters can pitch deeper into games more effectively - we'll see if the times through the order penalty is mitigated at all by the regular extra day of rest - and I don't see the downside risk.
James
1:15
Is there any MLB team that actually loses money? Not fancy accounting trick losses, but actual losses?
Keith Law
1:16
I highly doubt it. Maybe the A's and Rays if you take out their revenue sharing, but they are anomalies. The first team is trying to move, and the second is ... well, trying to move, just in a different way. MLB is very bad at accepting that some markets don't work. It's like this New Orleans/NHL rumor - that's a worse idea than an MLB team in Vegas. Good luck putting a hockey team in a city with no real history with the sport, a very small population, and a good chance it'll be underwater in 10 years.
Luke
1:16
Next country to have its first MLB player?
Keith Law
1:17
Uganda. Pirates have a reliever from there, David Matoma, just 18 years old but a prospect. If they had a weaker system he would have made their list.
Ross A.
1:17
Would *you* have given Vlad $500M+?
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