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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 3/23/18
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Jeff Sullivan
9:03
Hello friends
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
Bork
9:04
Hello, friend!
Jeff Sullivan
9:04
Hello friend
Jordan
9:04
It seems like every publication is underestimating the Jays, they seem to be solid across the board if unspectacular, currently projected for 5th best record in the AL which amounts to a second wild card but when I see publications of contenders they are nearly omitted.
Is there something I’m missing that’s causing them to be completely overlooked?
Jeff Sullivan
9:05
Many publications put a lot of weight on previous season record and offseason activity. The Jays are coming off a bad record, and they didn't have an astonishing offseason. So it goes
9:06
Obviously, the projections around here like them just fine. But the Twins made the playoffs and have been super active, and the Angels have Trout and added Ohtani, so you can see how the Jays get lost in the media mix
DJ
9:07
Who would balk MLB or MLBPA:
Kids drafted out of HS are controlled by the drafting team for 10 years and kids drafted out of college are controlled for 8 years regardless of how much time they spend in the majors. Maybe give the players the option of becoming a free agent if they haven't been in the majors after half their time served.
It would eliminate this silly service time game and reward teams and players for having the most efficient player development system.
Obviously something would have to be worked out for international players too (10 years once they debut in the US?).
Jeff Sullivan
9:09
I think the general idea could be workable, but those numbers might have to come down, because you'd be penalizing the players who fly through systems and get to the majors fast. Someone like Kershaw, who was picked out of high school in 2006 and debuting in the majors two years later. You'd be increasing team control for the most talented young players, which is the opposite of what ought to happen
Sonny
9:09
You have Posey or Sanchez as the 2nd best catcher in MLB behind Zunino?
Jeff Sullivan
9:10
It's like with center fielders. Zunino is so much better than everyone else it's not even worth acknowledging they're alive
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
9:10
Why is the universal DH considered inevitable? There are enough pitchers who like hitting for the players to avoid lobbying for it. For the owners, I'm not sure of the net effect of paying for a DH vs not losing pitchers to stupid injuries. Without agreement from both sides, who is going to make a concession for it?
Jeff Sullivan
9:11
I don't think there are really that many pitchers who still love hitting, and guys get injured as batsmen every year. Look at what happened to Jimmy Nelson, the most valuable pitcher in the Brewers organization. Pitching is already dangerous enough -- teams shouldn't want to keep the risk higher than it needs to be
Throw in the fact that, Bumgarner aside, all of them suck, and it just doesn't seem like something that's long for this world
9:12
But I could be wrong! Tradition, and whatnot
THE Average Sports Fan
9:12
On the CF list, where you more surprised the Mets were 3rd or that the Twins were 6th?
Jeff Sullivan
9:12
The Mets came up quicker than I expected, but the projections pretty heavily regress baserunning and defense, so I see how Conforto wound up elevated above Buxton. Buxton's best skills are likely to be underappreciated by a projection system
Bork
9:13
If all center fielders are losers compared to Trout what does that make us? What does that make Prince Fielder?
Jeff Sullivan
9:13
We can't be losers if we're not even playing
9:15
And Prince Fielder is basically my age but he has an extra roughly $250 million. Money by itself doesn't make a soul brighter, but at least if Fielder has things to worry about, he doesn't have to worry about trying to fix them
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
9:15
Why is your chat the only one where the queue is not open prior to the start?
Jeff Sullivan
9:15
I've never had a problem getting enough questions. Guess I don't see the point
Jack
9:16
It looks like Joey Wendle might get to play a whole bunch of second base for the Rays, so can you give me any reason to feel good about that?
Jeff Sullivan
9:16
no
9:17
Well, I guess, if someone else emerges, it wouldn't be too hard to find playing time
Ross
9:17
Will Jose Bautista ever play another MLB game?
Jeff Sullivan
9:17
Sure
9:18
But will he play another 100? That I'm far less certain about
CamdenWarehouse
9:18
The As have had pretty bad luck with pitcher injuries over the last half decade or so.  At what point do you start wondering if it's not luck but something the organization does?  This probably applies to the Mets too.
Jeff Sullivan
9:19
I don't know exactly when you start to worry; talking to people around the game, everyone considers pretty much every single pitcher a ticking time bomb. Every pitcher kind of expects to get hurt eventually. It's not so much bad luck when pitchers get hurt, but good luck when they don't
9:20
That being said, a theory: Maybe the A's are willing to accept pitchers with worse medicals than average, because it's a way to get cheaper talent. They always have to worry about keeping costs down, and perhaps they invest in talent over health
Doesn't explain something like, say, Puk. But, welp, he's a pitcher. Pitching sucks
Jack
9:20
How has Miguel Cabrera looked in Spring Training?
Jeff Sullivan
9:20
Good
It's too early for him to be hurt yet
Tim
9:21
Aside from Holland which free agents are you most surprised at being unsigned less than a week from Opening Day? Who are you most annoyed by them not being signed?
Jeff Sullivan
9:23
I don't know. Scott Feldman? Seth Smith? Matt Holliday? There's not really...I don't think any of the remaining FA are all that appealing. Several of them have their potential uses, but none of them project to be actually good. No point in signing Matt Holliday for his track record, if you have someone younger and more athletic who could also be about an average hitter
9:25
Someone like Holliday can still hit the ball hard, but he doesn't do anything else. Teams want their players to be able to move around
Jose Bautista, I did expect to find a job. Forgot about him
Hae-Lo Dee
9:27
It's been discussed in multiple places that the juiced ball era has helped players with low to middling power more than it has traditional sluggers.

In the steroid era, we saw multiple sluggers putting up crazy seasons of 50, 60+ homeruns. In theory, both a juiced ball and a stronger human result in higher exit velocity, which results in more homeruns. What is the difference that is creating this difference in homerun distribution, or is the difference only perceived?
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