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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 1/15/16
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Jeff Sullivan
Hello friends
Welcome to baseball chat
As far as I know this is the only baseball chat
Right now
Fun Fact : Jeff, you once wrote about Christian Guzmans rookie season. David McCarty's rookie season was also worth -3.1war but he did it in an astounding 98 games/471 PA. Wow!
Jeff Sullivan
Here's to the bad ones!
Have we ever talked about Ruben Sierra?
Between 1993 - 2000, Sierra didn't have a single season in which he finished with a positive FanGraphs WAR
Through the age of 26, Sierra had 4512 plate appearances, and a +19.7 career WAR
From 27 on, he batted 4270 times, with a -5.8 WAR
So that's today's Ruben Sierra take
Hi Jeff. What would be reasonable to expect from Raisel Iglesias and how soon does he show it? What's the ceiling?
Jeff Sullivan
I liked a lot of what Iglesias did and obviously he got better down the stretch as he gained experience. As is customary, though, I don't buy him quite yet against left-handed hitters, and to some extent that's been hidden with him playing in the NLC
He can be murder on righties and that alone can make him a reasonable starting pitcher but there's development left to go. Easily one of the most interesting Reds, and one of the young ones with a high ceiling
An alternative to signing Chris Davis would be to try to trade for Joey Votto, which if the team took on all of his contract, could cost less than a first rounder that Davis would cost. What are the pros and cons to each and which would you rather have?
Jeff Sullivan
A lot of the Davis stuff is being fueled by Peter Angelos, who loves him, and if Angelos doesn't feel the same about Votto then he might be less willing to pay the price and maybe have it come from a "separate" budget
There's also the matter of Votto maybe or probably not wanting to play in Baltimore
Not that he loves what's going on in Cincinnati, of course, but you figure there will be options down the road
I'd rather have Votto than Davis because I trust Votto to age better, but it's not as easy as just making that decision from the Orioles' perspective
Prince Wednesday
Enjoyed your piece on Lucroy. Different scenario, obviously, but do you think the haul ATL got for Miller has changed Milwaukee's perception of what Lucroy is worth (or what they can get for him)?
Jeff Sullivan
The Brewers were asking for an impossible return even before the Miller trade happened
And these are just two very different scenarios. Miller is a talented, young, cost-controlled starting pitcher who got moved around the height of the starting-pitcher market. Lucroy is a catcher with question marks. The catcher market hasn't been very active
So if Baltimore signs Cespedes/pulls offer to Davis, is it plausible Davis takes a 1 year/32 million dollar deal with the Astros and then re-enters the market as the best FA in the 2016 class? Don’t forget he is from Texas and the Astros are projected for an 86 million dollar payroll, which isn’t acceptable for this market size.
Jeff Sullivan
As much as I feel like the Orioles are almost inevitable for Davis, if they DO end up with Cespedes instead then I still don't feel like Davis will have to settle for one year. He won't get that 7/154m, and honestly he should take that today, but Boras would be able to work something out with some owner somewhere
Like, say, if the Tigers don't get Cespedes back, I could see Ilitch making a move for Davis. He's not a real corner outfielder but he could play there for a year or so before shifting
With the Reds signing Alfredo Rodriguez they can't sign any IFA for over 300K for the next two signing periods. Is it worth it? If not, how badly are they screwing this whole thing up?
Jeff Sullivan
To be clear: I am not an expert on these matters and it's not like I have a personal scouting report on Rodriguez. With that said: my impression right now is I don't like what the Reds are doing
Rodriguez reads like a defense-heavy shortstop who'll probably always have a questionable bat and those aren't difficult players to find, even if they do have real value. I mean, even today, what's the difference between Rodriguez's peak and Brendan Ryan?
Maybe they see something in his bat, but Jose Iglesias might be a *best*-case scenario here and Iglesias has his own questions to answer
Think about all the other teams who will have international spending restrictions the next few years. The Reds could've taken advantage of their absences. Instead, now the Reds will join them, and I think the best way to save this at this point is to keep spending before the next deadline. Right now, the Reds have taken themselves out of the running the next two years because of Rodriguez. They might as well add to the assortment of signed players before the penalties kick in
What NL Central team do you feel like will return to relevance first: Brewers, or Reds?
Jeff Sullivan
my god this is difficult
I'm inclined to say Brewers, because even though the talent base isn't a lot better, I have a better feeling about the people in charge
ERA prediction for Tanaka? His HR/FB has been pretty high the past couple of years, his FIP jumped to close to 4 this year and his K rate dropped a bit. Doesn't seem to have an effective fastball either. Great WHIP though.
Jeff Sullivan
if he's healthy
The Other Other Bullpen Weapon
If you are the commish do you ban the Carter Capps delivery?
Jeff Sullivan
Just did a little quick reading. In case you were concerned, MLB has continued to keep a close eye on Capps:
The important thing seems to be the term "drag line". Capps has to jump forward, not up
Provided Capps is indeed dragging forward, then it becomes awful hard to draw a line between his delivery and the usual delivery, in which every pitcher in baseball disengages the rubber
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