JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 4/21/20

Jay Jaffe

2:05

Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to the first edition of my chat in 15 days. Scheduling issues have prevented me from sticking to my usual Monday time slot, so thanks for bearing with me.

2:07

I didn't publish anything today, but on Monday, I looked at the start of the Chinese Professional Baseball League season https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sorting-out-whos-hu-in-taiwanese-baseball-... and last Friday, I looked at the Korea Baseball Organization's efforts to get its season underway https://blogs.fangraphs.com/half-a-world-away-the-korea-baseball-organ...

2:08

It was great to get to see some live baseball in 2020, and I'm hopeful the powers that be will make arrangements to stream more of it so that baseball-starved overseas viewers can partake

Pat's Bat

2:08

Loved your article on Taiwanese baseball. Why aren't we all playing Taiwanese fantasy baseball right now?

Jay Jaffe

2:11

Thanks, and good question! In a league with just four teams, the prospects for a fantasy game would be somewhat limited, but I think the bigger issues are getting ahold of the statistical feeds to run a game, and to do so without losing anything in translation. There's a potential for a lot of confusion with so many players sharing the same surnames — I counted seven Lins and three Chens in the starting lineups of the Monkeys and Guardians in the game I wrote about, and there are a couple different variants when it comes to transliterations of those names

Ryan

2:11

Someone last week in a chat asked about Hall of Famers and the opposite of Peak WAR/WAR 7. That is, which HOF player, if you added up their *worst* seven seasons, would have the *lowest* WAR total? Ken Griffey, Jr. seems to be a likely candidate to me, considering his fWAR for his worst seven years adds up to negative 2.5 WAR. Do you know of any HOFers who can "beat" that total?

Jay Jaffe

2:14

Hmmm, offhand, no. For some entries in The Cooperstown Casebook, I note stretches of production that were meager or even below replacement level, but offhand those aren't occurring to me. Via the Play Index I can tell you that, say, there are 13 HOF position players who produced less than 2.0 WAR from age 33 onward, but that's not quite the same thing http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/Rl3Ky

Justin

2:14

Is Ryne Sandberg overrated?

Jay Jaffe

2:16

Eh, I don't think so. He's ninth in JAWS among second basemen despite producing just 4.9 WAR after age 33, and retiring at 36, which left his traditional stats a bit light. But he fares well in WAR thanks to excellent defense (+66 runs), baserunning (+33 runs) and double play avoidance (+11 runs) to go with his bat. He's a no-doubt Hall of Famer to me

Cliff on baseball

2:16

When considering the Mt. Rushmore of baseball, you'd HAVE to include Josh Gibson...am I right?!?!?

Jay Jaffe

2:18

I find "Rushmore" exercises to be absurd because they allow for so few choices. Really, after Babe Ruth and Jackie Robinson, one can come up with several plausible combinations . Should Gibson be there instead of Satchel Paige or Oscar Charleston or Willie Mays? I'll leave that debate to somebody else

Joel

2:19

Is 2021 the year that at least one of (Bonds, Schilling, Clemens) gets in? Seems like a lean year otherwise?

Jay Jaffe

2:22

Particularly with no ballot newcomer being anywhere close to Hallworthy, I think Schilling could get in based upon his having received 70% last time around, but the pandemic and the election are dual powder kegs for his combustible mouth. There's almost certainly too much resistance to Bonds and Clemens (~61%) to make the jump.

Here's a thought, with this year's induction ceremony quite possibly about to be scrubbed (the decision will come down in early May): would a voter have changed his or her mind about voting for Schilling knowing that s/he wouldn't have to listen to his speech this summer? I guess the same question could be applied to the Gruesome Twosome.

Stephen Strasburg

2:22

Am I better than Scerzer? Who would you take.

Jay Jaffe

2:25

no, despite Strasburg's stellar 2019, I think Scherzer, with his strong track record, durability, and perennial Cy Young contention is still the better pitcher if I had to pick one to have for 2020. In a couple of years that might change but consider the two pitchers' gaps in FIPS this past season (2.45 for Max, his third straight year below 3.00, and 3.25 for Stephen, his second year in a row above 3.00).

Sanford

2:25

Any thoughts on Posnanski's "The Baseball 100" over at the Athletic? One can argue about the rankings, but he didn't seem to take them uber-seriously, and so I didn't either. I found it to be less of a countdown and more of a celebration of the some of the greatest players ever, and a beautifully written one at that.

Jay Jaffe

2:26

I think you've hit the nail on the head. One can quibble about individual placements in the rankings but I think they generally check out, provoking when necessary, and he found some great insights and stories to share about oft-covered players

Bored

2:26

With Larry Walker getting in to the hall what does the rest of Arenado's career have to look like for him to get into the hall? (assuming he stays a Rockie just for fun)

Jay Jaffe

2:36

Let's take this from a bWAR/JAWS standard and work backwards:

Arenado has 37.5 bWAR through seven seasons, which is just 5.6 below the peak standard at the position. His first two seasons are low-hanging fruit when it comes to boosting that score, 2.5 and 3.6 WAR, respectively, so a pair of 5-WAR seasons would trim that to a 1.7-WAR gap while pushing him to 47.5 career WAR. If he never had another peak season, he'd still meet the JAWS standard by getting to 70 career WAR, meaning adding another 22.5. Of course, losing part or all of his age-29 season doesn't help, but this seems achievable. As he doesn't walk a ton, I don't see that he'll be particularly impeded towards 2,000 hits, and should have well over 400 or even 500 homers if he stays with the Rockies. Of course, that was up in the air even before the outage; we'll see how it plays out.

Stephen

2:36

Competitively, what teams most benefit from a shortened or canceled 2020 season and what teams are most harmed? For example, the Mets/Red Sox may benefit in not playing this year in that their star pitchers are undergoing TJ surgery. Another: some "older" teams may be harmed by skipping a year that was theoretically within their competitive window.

Jay Jaffe

2:40

The one that comes to mind the most is the Dodgers, who were forecast by our system to be baseball's best team and who will lose Mookie Betts to free agency after this year; Justin Turner will be a free agent as well. The team can re-sign both, but that's no given.

The Astros, who had the AL's oldest lineup last year and stand to lose George Springer and Yuli Gurriel to free agency after this season, also come to mind, but their rotation already has some question mark, as I noted when Justin Verlander went down with a groin injury that required surgeyr

eloquentboot

2:40

Jay, I've been led to believe that you are an expert in family budgeting. Give me your best budgeting advice please.

Jay Jaffe

2:40

Good lord, whatever gave you that idea.

2:42

"If you have multiple children, sell one so that the rest can live more luxuriously," — is that the kind of family budgeting we're talking about? I'm full of terrible ideas like that.

From a more practical point of view, learn to cook, and in particular cook lots of dishes with low-cost ingredients like beans, chicken thighs, and/or pasta. There, that's about the best advice I can give you.

86-45

2:42

A-Rod/Mets competing against Jeter/Marlins - Greatest rivalry ever?

Jay Jaffe

2:42

I mean, the Marlins don't even have a competitive ballclub right now, so let's hold off on that.

Ron

2:46

One pitcher has to face Mike Trout ten times. If Trout gets on base at least 3 times, the 2020 season is cancelled, but if the pitcher gets Trout out at least 8 times, baseball can safely return as of June 1st. What current pitcher do you choose (assuming Trout is trying his best to get on base)? All time?

Jay Jaffe

2:50

Well, we're probably screwed, but if I'm going on past head-to-head records as predictive — not a good idea generally, but i don't have time for a more elaborate methodology here — he's hitless in 10 PA against Hyun-Jin Ryu and has gotten on base twice in 18 PA against Wade Miley, three in 18 PA against Jon Lester and — comparatively not-so-small-sample alert —a .279 OBP in 61 PA against Hisashi Iwakuma. From the all-timers, I think I'd go with Pedro Martinez or Sandy Koufax.

Andrew

2:50

Have you had the chance to read Baseball America's new story about MLB and MiLB possibly agreeing to decrease the number of minor league teams from 160 to 120? If not, here it is: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/sources-milb-ready-to-agree-to... What are your thoughts about it?

Jay Jaffe

2:54

I read part of it this morning but didn't get to give it close scrutiny. I hate the idea of contracting the minors in this way and particularly some of the teams that are on the chopping block (including the Staten Island Yankees and Ogden Raptors, two clubs whose games I've attended and would be saddened to lose), but this now appears inevitable, and I'm hopeful that if this does go down, it significantly improves the lives of the minor leaguers who are still involved in terms of much more pay and less travel.

I do think that the loss of so many minor league teams and jobs will cause fewer multi-sport athletes to consider baseball, however, and so this strategy will do nothing to reverse some of the team's longstanding problems when it comes to increasing urban participation and moving closer to the center of the sports spotlight again.

Mountie Votto

2:54

How'd 420 treat ya?

Jay Jaffe

2:56

Uh, in our stay-at-home lives, every day looks pretty much the same. I celebrated my fifth wedding anniversary on Saturday, and we ordered a nice dinner in, but other than that, we're just marking time, prisoners to this virus and an inept governmental response.

Billy Beane

2:57

Not to totally discount the older teams just continuing to get older, but players will almost certainly 'age' a little less in a year when they don't accrue the wear and tear of a 162 game season. How the extra rest compares to the actual, literal creep we all take towards the Grim Reaper, I don't know, but it isn't implausible that an extra 3-4 months of rest or, (god forbid) a cancelled season, would add almost as much as it subtracted for some older guys.

Jay Jaffe

3:01

My hunch based in part on the career gaps of players on the Hall of Fame path is that missing a year creates the risk for a player to lose his edge when it comes to reflexes and physical and mental conditioning, offsetting whatever advantages there may be when it comes to reduced wear and tear. I don't think we have anything definitive to go by.

Section329

3:01

mlb.com just broadcast Felix s perfect game! I got there in the 9th to watch the glory. They are also showing Humbers no hitter(which I was also at Safeco for) on MLB network now.Woohoo baseball

Jay Jaffe

3:03

it's good that our current outage allows us to appreciate so many great games and moments. I haven't had much time to do so myself; because of the added child care responsibilities that come with having a preschooler home all day, I don't get enough downtime to kick back and watch much in the way of replays. I'm envious of those who do.

Jerry

3:03

Who do you think are the most likeliest managers after Bochy and Francona to be voted into the Baseball Hall of Fame in the future years through those committees? Piniella? Johnson? Leyland? Baker?

Jay Jaffe

3:06

From among that latter quartet, I think Leyland has the strongest case but Piniella came within one vote on the 2019 Today's Game ballot, and so he's probably at the head of the line while Johnson got "less than five" votes for the second straight time and Leyland was left off the ballot again. So I'd guess it's Sweet Lou though that doesn't mean I endorse it

Jeries

3:06

Who are the odd men out when the White Sox rotation is fully healthy. 5 spots for 7 guys: Giolito, Keuchel, Gonzalez, Lopez, Kopech, Rodon, Cease

Jay Jaffe

3:09

The funny thing about counting rotation chickens is that they're so rarely healthy that it really doesn't matter much. It seems pretty clear that Giolito and Keuchel are locks, Kopech has great upside, Gonzalez is something of a placeholder, and the rest will depend upon health (esp Rodon) and making improvements (the other two, both of whom had ERAs and FIPS above 5.00 last year.

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