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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 2/26/21
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:00
Hey folks, good afternoon and welcome to another edition of my now-regular Friday chat (this is the sixth week in a row, my longest since the first month of the pandemic).
2:01
Today I've got a piece up on Carlos Correa (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-to-make-of-carlos-correa/), which was inspired by a FanGraphs Audio spot I did with Kevin Goldstein (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-audio-bill-james-updates-his-ran...) discussing last week's piece on Fernando Tatis Jr. (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fernando-tatis-jr-has-a-clear-shot-at-coop...) as well as Kevin's piece on the next $400 million deal (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/who-will-be-the-first-400-million-player/).
I spent much of this week in Remember Some Guys mode, writing about the return of Oliver Perez (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/hello-again-cleveland-oliver-perez-returns...), the departure of Shin-Soo Choo (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/shin-soo-choo-heads-home-to-south-korea/) and the indy-league detours of Scott Kazmir (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/schlepping-from-sugar-land-scott-kazmir-on...), who spent a few weeks last season in something called the Constellation Energy League, where among other things he competed against a team laden with the large adult sons of Roger Clemens. In acknowledgement of all of this, I have donated my royalties from all of these pieces to David Roth's Foundation to Remember Some Guys
Before getting to the festivities, I have to recommend this Washington Post piece on "Baseball Bugs" the famous Looney Tunes cartoon which was released 75 years ago this month: https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2021/02/25/baseball-bugs-bunny-l... You can watch it here: https://www.supercartoons.net/cartoon/629/bugs-bunny-baseball-bugs.htm...

And now, on with the show...
Dellin Betances With Wolves
2:02
How come no HOF love for Brett Butler? -3rd best leadoff hitter all-time, best bunter ever, received MVP votes in 6 seasons, cancer survivor ...
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:05
I'd dispute the notion that Butler is the 3rd best leadoff hitter of all time, first off. Kenny Lofton was a similar hitter but a much better baserunner, and everybody forgets that Pete Rose was an elite leadoff guy, taking more than 10000 PA at the spot.

Beyond that, Butler's fielding metrics are downright brutal (-84 via B-Ref) such that he finished with 49.7 WAR, about 19 fewer than Lofton and not enough to really make a dent in an advanced stat-based Hall conversation
45 blows billygoats
2:05
Mel Blanc was the best!
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:06
He was!

It's remarkable, in retrospect, that I spent so much time watching Bug Bunny and his very Brooklyn-driven attitude and then decades later wound up living here for the past 13 years
Gord
2:06
Do you think the Mather situation will affect the Mariners when they’re ready to make a big splash in free agency? I could totally see agents playing up how big of an issue it is in order to squeeze out a few more dollars from the M’s and forcing them to overpay.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:09
Given their lack of recent success and their small-to-midmarket approach, I can't see them being major players for the top free agents anytime soon. Once they're ready to compete for a playoff spot and for bigger-name (but not elite) free agents — which they haven't really done since signing Nelson Cruz after the 2014 season — their money will probably be as good as the next team's provided they give off the impression that their house is in order
Greg
2:10
Thoughts on Pirates signing of Tyler Anderson? I'd hoped they would have signed someone with a higher ceiling for a better trade chip at the deadline - Anderson seems like strictly an innings eater.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:11
To some extent I think chasing those midsummer trade chips is a sucker's game. Anderson might show he's healthy enough to be dealt but a team's not going to get anybody who's going to alter their current trajectory, which in the Pirates' case ain't so hot. If he's healthy and good, why not try to extend him for a couple of years and see if he turns into something even betteR?
Guest
2:11
I feel like the Spinal Tap pun in the title of your Oliver Perez article went hugely unappreciated.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:12
Not every joke lands. The great thing about my job is that I get to try again the next day
Cito's Mustache
2:14
The discrepancy in fielding metrics you highlighted in the Correa piece suggests that UZR is an unreliable measurement of infield defense, and we should look to DRS and perhaps OAA more. Is that fair or an overreaction to one example?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:15
I think it's a fair reaction that probably should be discussed more. I'd like to see where a Statcast based defensive runs metric winds up but I don't know when we'll actually see one.
MikeD
2:17
Bobby Bonds was a heck of a lead-off hitter too. His use there for a few years was a bit a head of its time in thinking.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:18
Indeed. Wade Boggs is another nonstandard guy who fits well in this discussion. Likewise Shin-Shoo Choo and Derek Jeter. Here's a B-Ref Split ranking by raw OPS among players with at least 3,000 PA as leadoff hitters https://stathead.com/tiny/3VjxO
Appa Yip Yip
2:19
If you would be so kind, I don't remember the exact rate at which guys who debut at 21 make the Hall, only that it is way higher than the rate for older debuts. I mention it only because Alejandro Kirk made his debut at 21.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:19
See my Tatis piece linked above
2:20
Kirk would fit into the 1 PA at 21 bucket, from which 7.3% of players have launched Hall of Fame careers
mmddyyyy
2:20
If the remainder of Justin Upton's career were exactly Melvin Upton's career, would he make the Hall?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:22
Alas, Justin wandered off the Hall path a few years ago. Two years of negative WAR suggests he might not even get another guaranteed deal, though he does have this year and next to rebound.
mmddyyyy
2:22
Beyond the recognition, are there any perks to Hall membership? Free parking?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:23
It's a significant financial windfall, particularly when it comes to appearances, memorabilia and (I think) licensing.
Like in the millions of dollars.
45 blows billygoats
2:24
Do you have someone you follow or can you recommend a follow for info on the K League and Japanese League?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:26
Dan Kurtz (@myKBO) is an essential follow for KBO stuff, as is Jeeho Yoo (@Jeeho_1), a Seoul-based reporter. Japan-wise. Japan-wise, Jason Coskrey (@JCoskrey) comes to mind
Jeff
2:26
James having Jeter as a top 5 SS all time is interesting, and not in a bad way. Now that we're so far removed, I really do think Jeter became massively underrated over time for doing what he did for so long *while also winning.* Is he the perfect example of what we value in the modern baseball culture? The fact that he and his teams *did win so much* is something that even mentioning in today might be derided as Not Understanding Da Analytics....but the gd analytics are supposed to be there *to get better at winning!!!*
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:29
I haven't listened to the Bill James podcast spot (which precedes mine on this week's FanGraphs Audio) so I'm not sure exactly on what basis Bill is elevating Jeter but I don't think it's a ridiculous notion that he might be top-5 if you're 1) wary of the defensive metrics that show Jeter as outlier-level bad; 2) factoring in his considerable postseason success); and 3) applying some kind of timeline adjustment that recognizes that an early 21st century athlete is MILES beyond ones from a century or half-century ago.
Jeff
2:30
Without the PED nonsense, and I really do find it too coincidental that super relatable owner Stevey Cohen got a positive that cleared cap space, where do you think Cano ranks among 2B?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:32
he's probably a top 10 second baseman all-time (7th in JAWS) but come on, it's dumb to think that the timing of the Mets sale has anything to do with Cano's suspension given that this is a guy who's already been pinched once. It was downplayed publicly but COVID testing meant that PED testing slipped through the cracks. That some players would get sloppy seems inevitable
MikeD
2:32
I went off a bit of a rant on this a week or so back, but it's still bothering me. Why on earth did the HOF decide to hold a virtual induction ceremony this year instead of holding the Jeter, Walker, Simmons induction until next year. Between New Yorkers coming to see Jeter and Canadians crossing the border to cheer on Walker, the Hall had the opportunity to have its biggest attendance ever in 2022. The village needs that. Instead, we may have three straight shutouts, or worse, a Schilling-only induction.  Do they even care about the town they're in?  Care to speculate?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:35
I sympathize with the Cooperstown business who are losing out on a potential bonanza but at some point, you can't hold up the line forever. I do wish the Hall would have considered maybe a late August/early September date in hopes that greater vaccine distribution made a potential event safer but the last thing the Hall wants is to become a superspreader event. This ain't Sturgis.
Pumpsie Green
2:35
Do you think the Jays did any long-term harm to Vlad Jr. by bringing him up before he figured out defence and conditioning? In hindsight, he was never going to be Tatis Jr, but can he still be Ortiz?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:38
I don't think so. If anything, I think that his initial exposure might have instilled in him the importance of improving in both areas both for near- and long-term benefits. As he's still a few weeks shy of turning 22, I certainly wouldn't discount the idea that he could be the next Ortiz or, even better, somebody who can play some passable defense for a good chunk of his career before moving to DH.
fake baseball fan
2:38
How many future Hall of Famers are on the Top 100 Prospects lists right now based on the past? How many will make a Hall ballot?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:41
Good question! I don't know the answer but maybe at some point I'll sit down with the 30 (?) year worth of Baseball America Top 100 lists — since that's the one that goes back the furthest and was for so long the industry standard, not to take anything away from the others in the field now including our own Eric Longenhagen, who does an awesome job of integrating analytics and risk evaluation into his lists — and count those up.
Childish Bambino
2:41
I think Statcast does have a runs based defensive metric, if that's what you were saying.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:41
they've got Outs Above Average, which is a play event metric, not a run-based metric
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