JotCast | Hoops Rumors Live Chat: 7/31/2025 (RFA edition)

Hoops Rumors Live Chat: 7/31/2025 (RFA edition)

Luke Adams

1:01

Thanks for the early questions, guys. Appreciate you bearing with me as we try something different this week. Sorting through what we've got so far and will get started in just a second!

Guest

1:03

Why can’t the Bulls and Warriors simply swap Gidey for Kuminga?

Luke Adams

1:08

Neither team has the cap room available to sign an outside free agent like Giddey or Kuminga to the kind of contract they'd want, which means a sign-and-trade would be necessary. And in a sign-and-trade, the base year compensation rule complicates salary-matching.

Let's say both players got starting salaries of $25MM. Both the Bulls and Warriors would have to account for $25MM in incoming salary, but their outgoing salary would only count for $12.5MM apiece due to base year compensation rules. That means neither team would be sending out enough salary to make the deal legal and would have to include more salary to make it work. But in all likelihood, neither team would want to take on more salary themselves, so you'd need at least a third team and maybe a fourth team to make it work -- those teams would want something decent for getting involved. It would get very complicated very fast.

Arcman

1:08

If the Kings want Kuminga so much how come they are unwilling to offer more to bring him to Savramento? Carter and Saric is just end of the bench pieces have they offered better players for Kuminga?

Luke Adams

1:11

I know Devin Carter's stock has dropped in the past year, but he was a lottery pick last June and wasn't himself as a rookie due to his shoulder injury. Classifying him as some unwanted end-of-the-bench guy is inaccurate, in my opinion.

As for why the Kings won't go higher, they're essentially paying the Warriors for the right to pay Kuminga -- it's not like they'll necessarily get Kuminga on an amazing, team-friendly contract at the end of this process. It's always harder for a team to extract value for a player in a sign-and-trade than in a normal trade for that reason.

TrustTheProcess

1:12

Do you see Quentin Grimes getting a contract from Philly that pays more than the non-taxpayer mid-level exception (AAV)? Second, if the Sixers aren’t willing to pay the MLE, then will Grimes just accept the qualifying offer and try his luck next offseason as an unrestricted free agent?

Luke Adams

1:14

Something a little above the mid-level for Grimes makes sense to me -- I feel like both sides could live with a three-year, $50MM deal, for instance.

Grimes made about $11MM in his first four years, which is well below what guys like Giddey ($27MM) and Kuminga ($25MM) earned, so I feel like it'd be a little riskier for him to settle for the QO if a decent payday is on the table.

GrizzMan

1:14

Any way the Grizzlies could be in on an RFA? Grimes or Thomas could give them meaningful mins IMO

Luke Adams

1:15

It's not impossible, but they'd have to be willing to give up some draft assets, since I don't think Brandon Clarke and/or John Konchar are really moving the needle for any teams in a sign-and-trade.

Jazz

1:15

I’ve seen speculation about the Jazz as a possible dark-horse suitor for Kuminga or Grimes, but it didn’t seem like anything more than that. What’s their cap situation like and how would they pull something like that off? They certainly have future picks to use if they wanted to in a SnT. I just don’t see why they’d want to.

Luke Adams

1:18

They don't have cap room, but they do have a $26.6MM trade exception that they created in the John Collins trade, and they're well below the tax line. So the appeal of involving them in a sign-and-trade would be that they wouldn't really have to worry about salary-matching -- they could, say, give Kuminga a $26MM starting salary without sending out any salary themselves.

Like you said though, I haven't seen anything indicating they'll actually be involved on any of these guys. They make for a good subject of speculation because they're well positioned to get involved, but they haven't acted this offseason like a team getting ready to add a big-money RFA.

xdrta

1:19

A lot of talk about the Warriors' offer of 1+1 (TO) but Kuminga doesn't want to waive the implied NTC. If the Warriors picked up the TO before a trade, making it a 2 yr contract, would that remove the NTC and restore his Bird rights?

Luke Adams

1:20

It would, yes. Here's the wording on that from the CBA (emphasis mine):

"Should the player consent (or if the player and Team agreed at the time of signing to eliminate his right to consent) and the player is traded (except if the Contract has an Option for the second year that was exercised prior to the trade), then, for purposes of determining whether the player is a Qualifying Veteran Free Agent, Early Qualifying Veteran Free Agent, or Non-Qualifying Veteran Free Agent at the conclusion of the Contract or any subsequent Contract between the player and the assignee Team, the player shall be considered as having changed Teams by means of signing a Contract with the assignee Team as a Free Agent (and not by means of trade)."

Qbert

1:21

Are there any teams with enough cap space that could simply offer one of the RFAs a large one year deal that the original team would not be able to match? (Example: Kuminga signs a 1 yr deal for $25MM.) I get that the players want a long term deal, but if the QO is small, it seems like in this scenario, they'd get a nice raise on their paycheck and freedom next offseason.

Luke Adams

1:24

The Warriors, Bulls, Sixers, and Nets all hold Bird rights on their respective RFAs, so they could go up to the max to retain them if needed.

The Warriors and Sixers have also gone out of their way to avoid hard-capping themselves so that they don't put themselves in a position where a team could give Kuminga or Grimes an offer sheet that they wouldn't be able to match. The Bulls and Nets both have hard caps, but they have enough breathing room below those hard caps to match even max offers for Giddey and Thomas.

The Nets are the only team with the cap room available to realistically do an offer sheet for any of these guys. As we saw with the Bucks and Myles Turner, if a team REALLY wants to make cap room, it can, but for most clubs it would require some pretty drastic moves that seem unlikely at this point in the summer.

1:25

Other than the built-in no trade clause, what’s the advantage for say, Kuminga or Thomas to sign their qualifying offers instead of more lucrative 1+1 deals? I wonder if getting a player option in year two instead of the reported team options would be a reasonable compromise?

Luke Adams

1:27

If the second half of the 1+1 deal is a team option, the player would be giving up some control of his future in order to get some extra money in year one -- if his team picks up the second-year option, he's stuck on that deal (maybe in a situation he doesn't leave) for a second season rather than getting to fully decide his own future next summer.

I do think there's some merit to the idea that a second-year player option could be a good compromise for one or two of these guys.

1:29

This wasn't really your question, but I'll take this opportunity to address something related to the Warriors' reported 1+1 offer to Kuminga (two years, $45MM) -- they reportedly want him to give up his implicit no-trade clause as part of that deal, which may seem like an unreasonable ask, since he would lose his Bird rights if he's traded.

But it's worth noting that he'd be in a much better position to re-sign with his new team in that scenario than he would be if he consents to a trade on his qualifying offer. In either case, he'd just have Non-Bird rights, but those rights could pay him 120% of his previous salary, so they'd go a lot further if his previous salary was, say, $22MM instead of $8MM.

Schmee

1:30

Any chance the nets could use their cap space to emerge as a dark horse suitor for one of the remaining RFAs not named cam thomas?

Luke Adams

1:31

Touched on this briefly above, but to more directly address it: Is there a chance? Yes. Has there been any indication that they plan to do so? No.

I expect the Nets to be in full-fledged tank mode in 2025/26 to take another shot at a top draft pick, and I think they want to maintain a good deal of cap flexibility for next offseason. Both of those factors point to them avoiding an aggressive offer sheet for a current RFA.

Midnight Howler

1:31

I Like Giddey’s fit with Minnesota, and I’m not sold on Dillingham making a leap or Conley continuing to produce at a Championship level. Any pathway to that sign and trade?!

Luke Adams

1:32

Pretty hard to imagine. A team acquiring a player via sign-and-trade gets hard-capped at the first tax apron, which the Timberwolves are already well above. So if they were to pay Giddey, say, $25MM in year one, they'd have to send out something like $35-40MM in salary to make it work (that's a rough estimate, haven't dug into the exact numbers). Very unlikely.

1:32

Do we think this situation forces a change in RFA? It seems like the union doesnt want to offer stuff for concessions on RFA. This has to get fixed though right?

Luke Adams

1:35

I think a lot depends on how these situations resolve themselves. If they all end up somewhat happy at the end of the negotiations (either by getting paid, landing with a team they like, or both), I could see us forgetting about how long it took and saying "well, that's just how restricted free agency goes."

If we end up with a couple guys settling for QOs or one or two situations getting uglier than they are now, I could see it becoming a bigger deal for the players' union during the next round of CBA negotiations.

(Though even in that latter scenario, there's no guarantee that this situation will repeat itself every offseason. This summer has been somewhat unique in terms of how little league-wide cap room is available.)

Valuations

1:35

How do you personally value each of Kuminga, Giddey, Grimes and Thomas in terms of what you would deem a “fair” contract? Not necessarily what they might actually get, just your opinion for each.

Luke Adams

1:39

I'd be fine with a $25MM per year investment in Kuminga or Giddey. On a shorter-term deal, I'd probably even go a little higher to get something done.

Something around $17-18MM per year feels right for Grimes.

I wouldn't do a long-term deal for Thomas, but in the Nets' situation, I'd be fine with going up to $20MM per year for a couple seasons. If he wants a longer deal, I'd hesitate to go much higher than $15MM. The shoot-first gunner who doesn't play defense has never been my favorite type of player.

Edwill

1:39

Which RFA do you think will get there contract situation solve first.

Luke Adams

1:39

I'll say Grimes with the Sixers, but it's just a guess. It also wouldn't surprise me if a couple get done in quick succession once the first one happens, since it'll help set the market.

bigdawgchilldawg

1:39

will this same scenario happen to a number of rfa’s next year or do u think with teams having this offseason as a reference make things do along better?

Luke Adams

1:41

There are more teams projected to have cap room next summer, which should help quite a bit. Even though offer sheets have become more of a rarity, it helps the player's leverage if there are teams with the ability to give him an offer sheet.

We'll also see how many of the rookie scale extension candidates end up signing deals before the season starts. If Kuminga and Giddey knew how this summer would play out, maybe they would've been more willing to get something done last fall -- along the same lines, maybe the potential 2026 RFAs will be more inclined to compromise this fall to avoid ending up in a situation like this themselves.

Guest

1:42

The PHX offer of Royce/Nick + 2nd rd draft picks seems a reasonable haul for Kuminga. Apart from existing length of contracts on those players, why doesn't GS pull the trigger on this? Seems those Suns players would work on the gS roster.

Luke Adams

1:45

Based on what's been reported about the Suns' offer, taking back O'Neale and Richards would likely hard-cap the Warriors at the first apron (Kuminga's first-year salary would have to be above $30.25MM to avoid that, which isn't possible based on the four-year, $90MM terms reported). That might restrict the Warriors' ability to fill out the rest of their roster a little more than they'd like.

Whether or not the Wariors actually like O'Neale and Richards is another matter that I can't speak to with any certainty. But I suspect they'll only be willing to hard-cap themselves at the first apron for a home-run of a deal, and I'm not sure that qualifies.

Miami

1:46

How far over the tax are the Heat? Who are the salary-dump candidates outside of Rozier, who has negative value? Will we bring back Dru Smith?

Luke Adams

1:49

I believe the Heat are in the tax by about $1.6MM. Doubt that'll be the case by the end of the season. Highsmith or Fontecchio could be the other salary-dump candidates -- neither of them has negative value like Rozier at this point, so it would probably be easier to move one of them before the deadline without attaching a sweetener.

As for Smith (RFA content!), if he accepts his qualifying offer, he'd be on a minimum-salary contract with a partial guarantee worth about $102K. I could see the Heat keeping him in the 15th spot on that deal at least to open the season -- they could waive him before it guarantees if they want, and could still avoid the tax easily enough with a salary dump.

Warm it up, Chris

1:50

Please put out the fire OR keep it alive for me, Luke. Not taking into account whether the Bucks would be interested, does this trade LOGISTICALLY clear all the hurdles……Warriors sign and trade Kuminga (25-30 million per year), along with Draymond Green, Moses Moody - and some combination of 4 draft picks - to the Bucks for Giannis. If there’s still a chance, that’s all I need to know.

Luke Adams

1:51

It could be legally done. I definitely wouldn't bet on it happening, but it theoretically could.

Bob

1:51

It seems like the Kings would have to move Monk or DDR in order to add Kuminga… is that right?

Luke Adams

1:55

Not necessarily. By sending out just Carter and Saric, they could theoretically offer Kuminga up to about $81MM for four years based on the salary-matching rules.

But I don't believe they have quite enough wiggle room below the first-apron hard cap to go that high on Kuminga's salary if they're only sending out those two guys, so it would certainly be much easier for them if they were able to move off a bigger salary like Monk or DeRozan.

Giddey $30M?

1:55

is Giddey worth $30M? Was that second half real? Not sure he can realistically be a lead guard on a top 4 seed…

Luke Adams

1:58

I get the case against offering him $30MM per year, but if you're his agent and you're making the case FOR $30MM, there are a lot of comparable players around the league you could point to -- Jalen Suggs, Immanuel Quickley, Jordan Poole, Dejounte Murray, and Jalen Green are all making more than $30MM per year.

I'd feel a lot more comfortable in the $25MM/year range.

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