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Hoops Rumors Live Chat: 5/13/25
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ARTHUR HILL
11:01
Welcome to this week's chat. We'll start with a question on last night's lottery winner.
Ben
11:01
Does winning the lottery make the Mavs title contenders again? If Kyrie can really return by January like they're saying, they'll have a pretty good lineup by playoff time
ARTHUR HILL
11:08
The Mavericks needed something positive to help them move beyond the Luka Doncic trade, and it happened last night as they overcame staggering odds to win the right to draft Cooper Flagg. If the scouts are right about Flagg and he's ready to contribute right away, then Dallas can match up with just about anyone in the Western Conference. At 6'9", Flagg gives them more size up front to team with Anthony Davis, Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively. He's probably versatile enough to handle either forward position, and he'll make plays on both ends of the court. Kyrie's health will be a major factor, but if the latest prognosis is correct, he'll be back around midseason. It's been an incredible roller coaster ride for Dallas fans over the past 12 months, but lottery luck has the team headed in the right direction again.
Rafael Stone
11:09
All superstar trades run through my phone.  Nobody can offer more valuable draft picks and few teams can match the young talent I have available.  The CBA has simultaneously increased the value and importance of young, controllable talent.  How would you balance leverage, need and value if you were me?
ARTHUR HILL
11:17
Stone and the Rockets are in an enviable position. He's got a young, affordable team that's ahead of schedule in its development, already posting the second-best record in the Western Conference. He also has valuable future draft picks from the Suns, Nets and Mavericks. Stone seems to understand that there's no need to rush the process, as a story yesterday from Kelly Iko and Sam Amick indicated that the Rockets aren't interested in trading for Kevin Durant or Devin Booker or taking a risk on Zion Williamson. The organization has been dedicated to rebuilding through the draft since trading James Harden in 2021, and Stone seems like he'll be patient until the right opportunity comes along.
11:19
The only thing that could change that approach is the chance to add an elite talent, which could happen soon if Giannis Antetokounmpo asks out of Milwaukee. Stone would undoubtedly part with most of his draft capital and a couple of his young players to add a potential MVP, but I don't think he'll give up Amen Thompson and he'll probably try to hold onto Alperen Sengun. Stone and coach Ime Udoka keep saying they trust their young core, and I think they're willing to continue with that approach if Giannis stays with the Bucks or gets traded somewhere else.
Jayson Tatum
11:19
If I have a torn Achilles, will the Celtics sell off some of their high-priced players this summer? There's no point in paying a huge tax bill if I can't play next season.
ARTHUR HILL
11:26
Tatum's injury is a disastrous development for a team that was already rumored to looking at reducing its salary this summer. The Celtics really aren't title contenders without Tatum, so if he can't play next season, they'll likely try to unload Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday at minimum. There should be a robust market for Porzingis, but it may be tougher to find a taker for Holiday, who's already 34 and carries an expensive salary for the next three seasons. I can picture the Celtics trying to avoid the tax next season, and then rebuilding a title team around Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Derrick White.
Guest
11:26
Will this year's lottery convince teams that tanking is a bad strategy? The Jazz, Wizards, Hornets and Nets for the chance to draft non-star prospects
ARTHUR HILL
11:34
This is the second year in a row that a team with long odds has landed the No. 1 pick and two teams from outside the top seven have moved into the top four. Being one of the three worst teams only results a 14% chance at landing No. 1, and those are bad odds when it comes to throwing away an entire season. The allure of a top prospect like Cooper Flagg or Victor Wembanyama makes teams want to maximize their lottery odds, but the number of lottery combinations they get for being one of the absolute worst teams and being somewhere in the middle of the pack isn't all that significant. Unfortunately, it leads to a lot of unwatchable games after the All-Star break. It's not good for the league, but with another loaded draft coming up next year I don't think it's going to change.
11:35
Dejota85: I have so much popcorn ready for this chat...  I understand that the odds of a team with less than 5% winning the number 1 overall pick is much greater than it seems because you have multiple teams whose combined odds of winning is closer to 10%.  So in that light we're actually seeing it happen LESS frequently than a normal distribution over 41 years.  However what is clearly not normal is how many times a top 3 player has moved on with their former team receiving the number 1 overall pick.  The odds of both events happening are less than 1% yet we have seen it arguably 4 or 5 times in the past 15 years alone.  Lebron 2010, Paul 2011, Kyrie 2017, Davis 2019, and now Doncic 2024.  As a reasonable person who doesn't want to believe in the conspiracies how could I convince myself that's just coincidence?  Also 4 out of 5 times it involves a team LeBron is on?  I (don't) want to believe.  Save me from this madness.
11:43
Last night's lottery results couldn't have worked out better for conspiracy theorists. Within minutes of Dallas' logo being unveiled, there were people claiming on social media that Adam Silver promised the Mavericks the No. 1 pick as an incentive to trade Luka Doncic to the Lakers. While it's a juicy theory and as you mention there is a pattern to support it, the current lottery system isn't something that can be manipulated. The numbers are drawn in plain view of representatives from all 14 teams, and they would all have to be in on the conspiracy to make it work. With so much as stake, no one from the Jazz, Wizards or Hornets, for example, is going to sit quietly and watch the league give Cooper Flagg to Dallas. There have been accusations that the lottery is rigged since the first one was conducted in 1985. Fans might find reasons to believe that every year, but it isn't true.
Dylan Harper
11:44
I'm the obvious no. 2 player in the draft but not the best fit for the Spurs, who have Fox and Castle and need shooting. Any chance SA trades the pick?
ARTHUR HILL
11:53
Dylan Harper is an amazing player who probably exceeded expectations during his freshman season at Rutgers. His combination of size and ball-handling skills enable him to handle both guard positions and have earned comparisons to Cade Cunningham and Jalen Brunson. However, he was only a 33% shooter from three-point range in college, and the Spurs already have inconsistent shooters in their backcourt. Landing the No. 2 pick greatly increased the Spurs' prospects of trading for Giannis Antetokounmpo if he decides to leave Milwaukee. Harper could thrive if the Bucks opt to rebuild and surround him with the right talent. He'll still be a fine player if he stays with the Spurs, but it's hard to win in the NBA when your top three guards aren't three-point shooters, and it's an issue that will eventually have to be addressed.
DJ
11:53
If you were a GM looking to trade a superstar this summer which top 5 young players would be your most reasonable targets as centerpieces?
ARTHUR HILL
12:02
I'm not sure if I can give you five, but I would be looking at teams that want to make a huge move and trying to identify players on their rosters who have been underused. Like the Hawks did with Dyson Daniels last summer. He had the pedigree of being a high draft pick, but he never got the playing time to show off his skills in New Orleans. The Rockets' Tari Eason is a similar player who might turn into a star if he's given starter minutes. The same goes for Jabari Smith, who was coming off the bench in Houston after the All-Star break. Cason Wallace in Oklahoma City is another good example. There are plenty of talented young players around the league who could do more with a better opportunity. It's just a matter of finding them.
Thanks for the great questions this week. We'll talk again next Tuesday.
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