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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 9/3/24
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Steve Adams
8:19
Good morning, all! Less than a month of the regular season left. We'll get started at 1pm CT, but feel free to submit questions ahead of time!
1:03
Greetings! Let's get moving!
Hubs
1:03
How far away are Angels from being a playoff contender?
Steve Adams
1:05
I think they're as far as any team in baseball. There are some nice young players with Neto, Jose Soriano, Nolan Schanuel to a lesser extent ... but the farm is bleak, the roster is rife with castaways who are just hanging on, and ownership has shown little inclination to spend on pitching over the years. I don't see how this club can come together as a contending unit anytime soon. And unlike so many other teams in this spot, they're also loath to rebuild. It just seems like there's no true plan in place.
Cards
1:05
With the emergence of Mathews could that potentially make a guy like Hence or Graceffo a little more expendable in trade talks?
Steve Adams
1:09
They're all still prospects. Their '25 rotation right now is Gray, Fedde, Mikolas, Matz and one of Pallante/Hence/Graceffo/Robberse/Matthews/Roby -- unless they pick up an option on Gibson or Lynn (former seems more likely to me at the moment).

Matz is frequently injured. Gray and Mikolas are in their mid-30s. There's a lot of age/performance risk in the in-house group. Graceffo's stock is down this year. Pallante could be in the 'pen again.
1:10
You could argue that Matthews' emergence makes a trade of a young pitcher a bit likelier or easier to stomach at least, but they're going to need some of these young guys to step up and claim long-term spots soon -- very soon. And the Cards haven't had great success in that realm recently (hence signing/trading for a bunch of 30-something starters) ... I'm not sure how much I'd want to thin out the prospect group.
Astros fan
1:11
What does a Tucker extension look like? Is Shay Whitcomb the answer for third base next season or do the Astros make a trade or sign a free agent. Thank you
Steve Adams
1:14
Even with the shin fracture, you're looking well over $200MM to extend Tucker. If he'd have continued his pre-injury production and stayed healthy, I'd have put the number closer to $300MM. Regardless, he'll require the largest contract in club history by a wide margin and the exact type of long-term megadeal that owner Jim Crane has resisted.

Whitcomb will be 26 at the end of the month. He hadn't hit much in AAA until this season. I think he's more of a utility option, and his usage this year in the minors (3B, 2B, SS, LF, etc.) seems to suggest the 'Stros may feel similarly. I think they'll look to the trade market or free agency if Bregman's market exceeds their comfort range (which feels quite plausible)
Mr. RogersNet
1:16
Any chance the Blue Jays go in on Bo and Vladdy replacements a year early? I'm talking about Adames or Alonso on the high end
Steve Adams
1:18
They're pretty intent on trying to compete again next year, and that'll require some major additions. Either Adames or Alonso would fit the bill and fill a need.

I'm less convinced than some Jays fans seem to be that Guerrero will ultimately walk, but that possibility has to inform their direction this winter. I wouldn't be so quick to sign someone who largely replaces him. Adames feels like a more logical target for them. They could finally move Bo off shortstop or trade him entirely. Adames should have plenty of interested teams in him this offseason, though.
Cute Lady
1:19
When Willy Adames inevitably leaves this offseason, what do the Brewers do since the SS free agent pool is so underwhelming? Slide Turang over to SS? Target Ha-Seong Kim?
Steve Adams
1:20
Kim will probably be more expensive than you're thinking, based on the context of this question anyway. Easiest plan will just be to move Ortiz or Turang over to shortstop. Both are plus defensive infielders at other positions, and both were viewed as high-probability shortstops with strong defensive skills as prospects.
Fluffy Bunnie
1:21
Do you ever see the "Maddux" trend returning where location and varying speeds with the same pitching motion outweighs hitting 103 mph and taking 20 months off because of UCL injuries.  And no, this is not Mike Marshall I promise.
Steve Adams
1:25
Greg Maddux had some of the best command in MLB history. It's not as simple as just "try to throw softer  and focus on command." Maddux was an anomaly. And today's hitters are better, less willing to change their approach with two strikes, and basically are never giving up their at-bats with sacrifice bunts.

Lots of fans wants pitchers to "go back to pitching like Maddux" or to see hitters "start going the other way again and bunt more." It's not that simple. Today's athletes are just better, which makes it harder for pitchers without premium stuff to get by unless they have plus-plus command or better -- and harder for hitters to go the other way, bunt, etc. since the average fastball is 4-5 mph quicker and breaking pitches are nastier than ever.
Fluffy Bunnie
1:26
I had Ronny Mauricio stashed in hopes he would be in the Mets plans for next season. With the breakout of Vientos and the need for Baty to "get right', is there any way he factors into the Met lineup next year?
Steve Adams
1:27
Sure. Vientos could move to 1B if Alonso walks, and then you're looking at Baty/Mauricio competing at 3B. There's also the standard potential for injuries with any team, and one infielder going down could open reps for Mauricio, who can play multiple positions.
free agent
1:28
Fried hasn't been an elite pitcher most of this season and he has has several injuries. Won't this affect the term on his next deal as a FA ?
Steve Adams
1:31
I think Fried has probably been less consistent on a start-to-start  basis than in the past, but if you toss out his first two starts of the season, which were both ugly, he's sitting on a 2.99 ERA in 22 starts / 135 1/3 innings. K and GB rates are both in line with prior levels. Command is a bit worse.

Bigger concern for me, I think, would be the consecutive years with a forearm injury. But I still think he's getting a minimum of five years with a chance at six -- annual values in the $22-26MM range in play.
Santiago
1:32
The Red Sox have Anthony, Duran, Abreu and Rafaela. Who do you think would be more likely to be used in a trade?
Steve Adams
1:34
I don't think they need to trade any of them. Duran is playing at a level that would command MVP consideration in some seasons, but Judge/Witt are just playing at god tiers in 2024. Rafaela can play the infield or outfield. Abreu is a nice platoon option in the corner. Roman Anthony was bumped up to the No. 2 overall prospect in MLB on Baseball America's newest rankings.

I'd probably be "most" comfortable moving Abreu, but when considering the DH spot, Rafaela's versatility, some platoon issues, potential injuries ... there's no reason they can't all mix in and coexist on the same roster.
MLBTR fan
1:35
do you think Paul Goldschmidt would accept a QO if the cards gave him one this offseason? Or try for a bigger contract?
Steve Adams
1:35
Depends how he finishes. He  has a 140 wRC+ over his past 150 PAs now. If he tacks on another 100 or so plate appearances where he's absolutely mashing like that, it's easier to decline. He'd be a borderline case still, but in that scenario I think you make the offer.
Kyle
1:36
An MLB.com panel of reporters picked the Yankees, Mets, Nationals and Giants as the four most likely teams to sign Soto. Am I crazy or are the Dodgers, Phillies, Padres and Blue Jays way more likely than the Nats or Giants?
Steve Adams
1:40
I don't know that any of those teams are "way more likely" than the Nats or Giants, but I think they're all reasonable to have in the mix. The Padres maybe a bit lower just because they were pretty clearly cutting payroll this year, and with the unfortunate passing of owner Peter Seidler, we just don't know if their prior spending levels will continue. Phillies are tougher from a roster-construction standpoint since they already have Castellanos, Schwarber and Harper, but it's only one more year with Schwarber and you could always just move on from Castellanos and fold it into the cost of signing Soto.

Dodgers and Jays both should be in the mix to sign him, yes. At the same time, the MLB.com panel was just an exercise in speculation. It was intended more as a discussion piece than any kind of serious means of predicting his market.
For the AA
1:40
Is Walker Buehler the odd-man out in the Dodgers' rotation? Would a contender go for him? Or is he more of a 1-year to a mid-ling team hoping to land a prospect at the deadline kinda guy?
Steve Adams
1:42
He'll have similar choices to the ones Jack Flaherty had this past winter, I think: take a one-year deal or go 2-3 years at a lighter AAV to max out the guarantee. I think he'll end up going the Flaherty route and taking a one-year deal, whether on a team clearly looking to trade him or on a hopeful contender that's coming out of a rebuild and looking to catch lightning in a bottle. Tigers themselves fit that billing once again, though I'd like to see them add a more dependable arm at this point
Bob
1:43
How much has Corbin Burnes' run of mediocrity lately impacted his potential FA deal?
Steve Adams
1:45
Not much. He's had six pretty pedestrian starts, though the last one was better. If there were a big velocity dip or some kind of injury, sure. As it is, I don't think his current run of tough outings is going to drastically change the way he's perceived in free agency. Teams care more about the stuff and his projections than short-term results over a matter of a month.
The Mechanical Man
1:46
Is there a "law" which says the Tigers can't try to grab Flaherty back from the Dodgers this winter? Would a minimum of five years/ $130M get a look?
Steve Adams
1:47
Nothing that says they can't. Yankees traded Aroldis for Gleyber in 2016 and then re-signed Aroldis in the offseason.

I think 5/130 would get more than a "look" from Flaherty. I think it'd get him. I'm a bit lower on a five-year deal myself, but it would not shock me for the market to love him and thus push bidding up higher than we're currently looking when we have our early free agent discussions among the MLBTR staff.
Jim
1:48
Did the Pirates miss in extending Ke’Bryan Hayes?
Steve Adams
1:51
I thought it was a perfectly reasonable extension given Hayes' floor as an elite defensive third baseman and clear upside at the plate. The back injuries that have now plagued him for three straight years didn't really pop up until after the extension was signed. He'd previously missed time with wrist/hand injuries. I don't think it was reasonable to expect a then-25-year-old infielder to develop a chronic back issue.
So they of course wouldn't do the deal again, but at the time it was signed, I didn't think it was some comical overpay or wonder "What the hell are they thinking?"
Cards
1:52
Any chance Ivan Herrera could be shifted to first base next season?
Steve Adams
1:53
Feel like they'd just go with Burleson/Baker if they want to stay in-house and if Goldy walks. Herrera has played 1B eight times in his career, and they've all come in Winter Ball. The Cardinals have never put him there.
Brandon
1:53
Is it the general consensus that David Bell is a terrible manager and should have been fired years ago, or is that just us Reds fans?
Steve Adams
1:54
Most fanbases think their manager is incompetent. My general stance is that it's so hard for onlookers to really know, since so much of what makes a good manager takes place behind closed doors in the clubhouse.
Chuck Solo, Han's cousin
1:55
Will there ever be another 300-game winner? Ok, maybe "ever" is too big a question, but how about the next 25 to 50 years?
Steve Adams
1:57
Verlander has said -- recently, even -- that he wants to get there. He'd probably need to pitch three more seasons for that to be plausible.

After him, I doubt it's even feasible. There's no one close who's even in their mid-30s. Even if Gerrit Cole pitched until his age-40 season, he'd need to average 21 wins per season to get there.
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