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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 8/22/23
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Steve Adams
Good morning all! Looking forward to another chat. I'll be back around 1pm CT to start this up, but feel free to submit questions ahead of time!
Let's get this underway!
Old Tom
Should the Twins resign Sonny Gray and for how many years and how many dollars? I understand he will be 34 years old next year. He has good stats accept W-L and they are low. I think he’s worth $20m for 3 years with (2) one year options.
Steve Adams
I doubt Gray's camp is going to give away multiple club option years like that. I think three years art $20MM+ is reasonable, though. The Twins will at least make a qualifying offer, but Gray should reject that. Chris Bassitt just got 3/63 for his age-34 through age-36 seasons. Gray is in a similar boat, age-wise, but is probably a better (albeit less durable) pitcher. I think he'll top that.
India and Arroyo enuf to get one of the Mariners controllable arms?  Kirby or Gilbert?
Steve Adams
Sorry the chat software seems to be lagging here -- I'll refresh and see if things pick up. Weird.
Anyhow, I don't think that's getting either Gilbert or (especially) Kirby. The market in general isn't all that kind to second basemen, and India has been a roughly average hitter since his ROY season. I don't think he's a major piece when it comes to getting a quality starter back
Michael Bush
I’ve kept my head down and raked, but this isn’t fair. Every year I get older. Is there a place for me in Los Angeles next season?
Steve Adams
I'd imagine Betts is back in the outfield next year, and while the option on Muncy is probably picked up, there's still a spot in the infield for one of Vargas or Busch to claim a spot. That said, the Dodgers will have other needs, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Busch/Vargas on the trade market either. There's a lot of moving parts that are kind of dependent on one another, but I don't think the Dodgers will necessarily operate under the assumption that Busch is a lock for the infield next year, no.
Josh Bell
I should opt out, right? Market sucks and someone will give me 3 yrs?
Steve Adams
He's been really good in Miami and was quite good for about 5 weeks or so before Cleveland traded him. If he keeps hitting anywhere near this pace yeah, he'll opt out. But as it stands right now, his season-long numbers are pretty much average, so I don't think he's any kind of lock to do so. If he goes into a slump, it's a borderline decision for him at best. Lack of impact bats on the market does help him, as you said.
Jorge Soler
If I stay healthy and hit 35-40 HRs, I'm a Top 5 bat in free agency, right?
Steve Adams
This year's crop of bats is just bad. He's a top-5 bat available right now, probably.
Why DFA Mejia? What sneakiness are the Rays up to?
Steve Adams
Darragh and I were just discussing how odd it seemed at first before we realized Mejia has 5+ years of service time. They can't option him without his consent, and they like Pinto/Bethancourt better, so they'll DFA him now and see if someone claims him to save them a bit of cash.
Steve, what is your take on Spencer Torkelson? Have heard a number of national talking heads feeling as if it's a true breakout for the former 1-1. Do you agree? What do you see for the future?
Steve Adams
I've never been out on Torkelson. He's made consistently elite contact but been so selective at times it's bordered on passivity. He's swinging more often now, maintaining the quality of contact, and finally generating the results expected of him. In general, fans are so quick to write someone off as a bust, and it's often a mistake.
Torkelson has continued to look to me like someone who's going to be a genuinely plus bat in the Majors, and the results are starting to show. I think he's going to be very good, and I don't think this is a small fluke so much as an example of a player who needed to continue finishing off his development in the Majors.
Sir Nerdlington
What size contract earns Jeimer Candelario's services next year? 2/18 or 3/25-ish?
Steve Adams
I think both are light and he's going to command three or four years at more than $12-15MM per season
At 12-15MM per season* (not "more than")
How surprised would you be if I told you right now the Mariners will win the division?
Steve Adams
I picked the Mariners to win the World Series before the season
There seems to be a lot of factors to favor the Mets signing Yamamoto this offseason. Eppler has a very good reputation in Japan even to the point some say he understands Japanese culture. He had success signing both Ohtani and Senga. Senga and Yamamoto know each other, and Senga says he is open to help recruit Yamamoto. I would also think the success the Mets have had helping Senga make the transition to MLB certainly cannot hurt. Your take?
Steve Adams
Biggest factor to me is just that the Mets have the largest margin for error of any team when it comes to spending. Eppler has had some success in courting players from Japan, sure, and knowing Senga helps to a small extent probably. (I doubt Yamamoto's going to sign there if the Mets are tens of millions short of the top bid, but if it's them and one other team making a comparable offer, maybe it helps.)

In the end, money talks, and the Mets are the most willing team to spend it.
Ohtani's Contract: Do you think both sides would accept a contract structured something like a $25M base/year for DH, then incentives of $1M per game as starting pitcher? This would get him to close to $50M per year when he's in his prime and starting the whole season, and would reduce as he ages and presumably pitches less.
Steve Adams
There's no reason Ohtani would accept this structure, and any team offering him half of his salary contingent on incentives/health isn't going to be seen as a serious suitor.
What are your thoughts on Angelos already crying poor years before this young core will reach free agency.
Steve Adams
His comments yesterday were such a bad look and really discouraging for O's fans. Can't even get through enjoying one season before Angelos swoops in and drops some "Enjoy him" vibes (a la Paul Dolan/Francisco Lindor)
Adam Wainwright
Am I done after 2023?
Steve Adams
He announced awhile ago that this is his last season
Oddball Herrera
How much of a mistake is it to take for granted that Holliday is going to hit for decent power? Love the plate skills but 8hr on the season is troubling
Steve Adams
He's 19 years old and playing against players who are substantially older and more physically developed than he is. Jackson Holliday is nearly five years younger than the average age of a Double-A player right now. Basically any scouting report you read on him will credit him with at least above-average raw power
I'm not worried about him not popping 20 homers on the season or anything
What moves do you see the A's making this offseason? Not many players to trade off besides Paul Blackburn. Will they sign any free agents? (not expecting any big names to be signed)
Steve Adams
Yeah Blackburn is the obvious trade candidate left, although Seth Brown's turned things around after a really poor couple of months and could also be moved. In general, I'd expect more of the same from last winter ... sign some fringe-y utility guys and rotation options. Maybe add a reliever or two on a one-year deal. All in hopes of having some assets to flip next summer.
Bucs seem to have a pretty solid core of position players to build a winning club around  in the near future with Reynolds, Cruz, Hayes, Endy Rodriguez, Henry Davis and to a lesser extent Peguero, Bae, Triolo and Nick Gonzales. Who are some reasonable free agent starting pitchers to add this offseason knowing they won't be players at the top end of the market?
Steve Adams
Yeah, it's tough to see them playing at even the middle tiers of free agency. If Michael Lorenzen ends up in Jameson Taillon range (4/68) or something close to that, the Pirates probably aren't the team giving it to him. And Lorenzen is probably the No. 8-9 starter on the market this winter.

Pirates could try to buy low on an injured arm that's typically been solid -- someone like Frankie Montas or Tyler Mahle. Guys like Martin Perez, Wade Miley, Alex Wood all have some track record but won't command massive commitments.
Trade market will obviously be another route for them to explore
Who do you see as the starting shortstop in Atlanta next season? Arcia/Grissom/Shewmake/Other?
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