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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 5/28/24
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Steve Adams
8:35
Good morning all! Hope the holiday weekend treated you well. I'll be back at 1pm CT to kick this off, but feel free to ask questions ahead of time, if you're so inclined!
1:01
Good afternoon all!
Let's get underway
the knock on Wood
1:02
Any news on James Wood? This year his K-rate is down and he's hitting .355 with OPS 1.062. I thought he'd be promoted with Robles being designated, but maybe his "precautionary" hammy strain is more serious than previously believed?
Steve Adams
1:03
The Nats just placed him on the 7-day minor league IL not long before this chat started. TalkNats said around 10-14 days is the expectation. Grant Paulsen from 106.7 in DC said "at least" a couple weeks.
1:04
So let's say 10 to 20 days or so being shut down, and they won't throw him right into big league games after that. I'd say you're looking at least three to four weeks before his MLB debut, in an optimistic scenario.
Jed Hoyer
1:04
Is my job on the hot seat if the Cubs keep spiraling?
Steve Adams
1:05
I doubt it. He's signed through 2025 and has been with the Cubs since 2011. I also just don't think the Cubs' offense will continue to sputter as it has of late.
Boz
1:06
why didn’t the pirates recall Davis as Bart was put on IL?
Steve Adams
1:07
Have to think they want the next time they call him up to be the last time. He's hitting well in AAA, but it's only 80ish PAs. Koch can come up and back up Grandal while Davis gets everyday ABs. Long-term, I don't think there's much harm in giving Davis a longer AAA runway to keep building confidence and work himself into a good spot at the plate.
This Chat
1:08
The link on the post is a moderator link, I got here through the opener
Steve Adams
1:08
Augh. Thank you. That'd explain the odd lack of participants thus far, haha. I was thinking "There are only 40-50 people? Weird"
1:09
That's fixed. Sorry about that, everyone
Cold Turkey Stearnes
1:10
A's last home game: raucous send-off (e.g. Arizona Coyotes) or quiet dud (e.g. Montreal Expos)?
Steve Adams
1:11
I'd expect a raucous sendoff... I know there'll be plenty of fans conflicted about buying tickets and putting money in Fisher's pocket, but it'll also be a sendoff to the players, coaches and to the broader baseball community there at large. One final gathering. At least I hope that's how it goes. Pretty miserable situation for A's fans, one way or the other.
Tom Kelly's blues
1:12
Should the Twins be worried about Lopez?
Steve Adams
1:13
Velo is generally fine. Walk rate is lower than last year. Still a strong K%. One of the best K-BB% marks in the league. The bulk of his struggles have come recently and on the backs of an uncharacteristic spike in homers. Maybe he's tipped something, maybe it's just a weird HR/FB spike that'll balance out. Regardless, there's nothing skill-wise that looks like it's deteriorated much from last year. I'm not expecting a long-term problem, no.
Dombrowski
1:14
Casty, Mick Abel, another Top 25 prospect and what else for Randy Arozarena?
Steve Adams
1:14
Rays aren't touching that Castellanos deal
Rockies assets
1:14
If the rockies were to deviate from their normal operations and actually moved players at the deadline, what players might actually bring back prospect value? Cave? Blach? Rodgers? Blackmon? There just doesn't seem like many pieces to part with yet they have logjams for their prospects.
Steve Adams
1:17
Yeah, they don't have a lot that'd fetch a return of note. Ryan McMahon would have some value. If Rodgers were hitting he would, but the current output is rough. Still time to get into a better groove, I guess, but the complete lack of power and low walk rate isn't helping anyone right now.

Elias Diaz would have some value. Cal Quantrill is only controlled through 2025. Jalen Beeks is pitching .. ok. It's just not a great roster in terms of plausible trade candidates though.
Blue Jays
1:18
I understand the Blue Jays are struggling and may not compete this season. But why would they trade home grown stars like Bichette and Guerrero? Especially given they were willing to spend with Ohtani this off-season. Unless they expect continued regression from each in the coming years?
Steve Adams
1:22
Darragh and I will talk about this on the podcast some when we record tonight (that episode will be out tomorrow). The answer in both cases but especially Vlad would just be rising cost in arbitration and dwindling club control. Vlad's only controlled through 2025, and his salary will jump into the mid-$20MMs this season. If the Jays think 2023-24 Vlad is the version they'll get in 2025, that's not a bad price but also not an unmitigated bargain either.

It just depends on the organization's goals long-term, too. They don't have a great farm system and are seeing several key players (Vlad, Bichette, Jansen, Romano, Swanson) all hit free agency together post-'25. It's natural to consider cashing in some of those relatively short-term assets to reset and build longer-term.
Jack Lazorko
1:23
The Angels have 10 free agents after this season, 4 after next year and another 6 after 2026.   Do you see them unloading many of them?    Pillar and Ward have to have value to teams such as the Braves or Royals, and pitching is always in demand.   Thanks.
Steve Adams
1:25
Ward seems like someone who'll be asked about a lot this summer, though with two seasons of control beyond '24, I'm not sold that he's a lock to move. Pillar isn't going to fetch them much -- maybe a low-level guy or two, a PTBNL ... something like that.

Luis Rengifo seems like their most interesting candidate, given that he's controlled only through '25 and having a huge season with plenty of defensive versatility to offer.

Carlos Estevez is missing tons of bats and limiting walks better than he ever has, so I'm not worried about the ERA spike and think he'll be fine and in demand at the deadline as well.
Ferris
1:26
Laureano to Atlanta?
Steve Adams
1:27
Maybe on a minor league deal, I suppose, with the idea that he can go to Gwinnett and try to get back on track. But dating back to last season, he hasn't done anything to suggest he's an improvement over what the Braves already have in house.
Thank you for the chat!
1:28
If the As want premium prospects for their closer, wouldn't it be easier for someone to give them up if the As bundled other players with Miller? Who else should they consider?
Steve Adams
1:30
Sure, though that's hardly a given and the A's may want to move their remaining trade chips separately to try to maximize value and diversify the talent they're getting from multiple organizations.

More directly to your question... other A's trade candidates include Paul Blackburn, Austin Adams, JD Davis.... if they're healthy and pitching well, Ross Stripling and Alex Wood. Lucas Erceg would be an interesting guy to put out there as well, but he's also got tons of team control remaining so like Miller, I think it's far from a given that he'll be seriously discussed in trade talks.
Nice Mike
1:30
How surprising is it that the Braves are turning to Spencer Schwellenbach on Wednesday?
Steve Adams
1:32
I think it's probably just a spot start, and as I wrote in the post on his promotion, their options were reasonably limited. Multiple injured starters, plus several who pitched within the past couple days or (in Darius Vines' case) were sent down too recently to be recalled to the majors. They needed to select Schwellenbach's contract to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft this offseason anyhow, so he was going to be added at some point this season or for sure in November.
So, I was initially a little surprised, yeah... but when I looked more closely at the context of their current SP options, it made more sense.
Trevor Williams
1:33
Will I be traded? What can the Nats get for me? Would an extension make more sense?
Steve Adams
1:36
I don't think an extension makes sense unless he just loves it there and wants to take a cheap deal. Williams is having a great season in terms of run-prevention but is also still giving up a good bit of hard contact. He hasn't added a new pitch or anything, though he's ramped up the slider usage which has helped generate a few extra whiffs and (presumably) some more grounders.

Still, this is a guy who averaged 1.69 homers per nine frames in the five preceding seasons and, despite making only one slight change to his repertoire, is yielding 0.35 HR/9 this season. I don't think the hot streak is sustainable. Not saying he's going to turn into a pumpkin and be unrosterable or anything, but I think he'll end up pitching more like a 4.00 to 4.25 ERA guy for the majority of the season from here on out.
1:37
He'll still have some trade value, given the affordable contract and good results, but I'd imagine most teams are looking at him as a No. 4/5 starter to round out the rotation and then slide to the 'pen in a playoff series
Curious A's Fan
1:37
Why would the A's need to bundle other players to land premium prospects for Mason Miller? I thought the expectation was set at a couple Top 100 prospects as the starting point.
Steve Adams
1:38
I just took the question as: "Couldn't they get more if they packaged Miller and then some?" To which the answer is a rather straightforward yes.

I didn't mean to suggest Miller alone couldn't. As I wrote at length last week, I think he has immense trade value on his own:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/05/mason-miller-rumors-trade-value...
Andy
1:40
Who goes to the bullpen once Cole returns to the rotation? I’m thinking they do a 6 man rotation once or twice.
Steve Adams
1:41
Luis Gil pitched four innings last year and is at 55 already this season. He's also walking 13% of his opponents. Obviously he's still getting by despite the poor command, but I question how long he can keep that up without improving the walks.

Even still, just due to his workload concerns, I think Gil would be the obvious guy to move to a long relief/multi-inning role where you can more effectively watch his workload so he's not jumping from four innings in '23 to like 144 in '24.
Cards
1:41
Does Fernandez make it the whole year on the roster?
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