JotCast | Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 4/8/25

Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 4/8/25

Steve Adams

8:23

Good morning! Back from a week off and looking forward to another chat. We'll get going at 1pm CT, but feel free to send in questions ahead of time!

1:02

Let's get underway

1:03

First and foremost -- awful news regarding former big league reliever Octavio Dotel. Original reports indicated that he'd been rescued from the rubble after the Jet Set nightclub's roof collapsed in the Dominican Republic, but multiple major publications in the D.R. are now reporting that he passed away while en route to the hospital. Nelson Cruz's sister was also reportedly among the victims. Terrible, terrible scene.

Astros

1:04

With Arrighetti down with that freak incident, who will be the 5th starter until Lance McCullers Jr. returns?

Steve Adams

1:05

I think this issue will boil down to maybe 1-2 starts, which will probably go to Ryan Gusto in some form of a bullpen game. They have an off-day Friday, so they can skip the fifth spot in the rotation. McCullers is making his third rehab start in a couple days.

Barring any setbacks from McCullers -- and he's certainly had plenty of them on his current road to recovery -- they might not be without a true fifth starter all that long.

Bosox Fan 1

1:05

How will the Red Sox handle their catching situation with Connor Wong out with a broken finger?

Steve Adams

1:06

They called up Blake Sabol for the time being, but they have an open 40-man spot and a more experienced Seby Zavala in Triple-A. I doubt they'll make a major acquisition.

Hubs

1:06

Could Angels have another young piece in Kyren Paris? He worked with Aaron Judge hitting coach in off season looks like a total different player. With Neto, Schanuel, O'Hoppe and now Paris halos seem to be going in right direction.

Jack Lazorko

1:06

is Kyren Paris for real?

David

1:06

He's gotten some BABIP help, but Kyren Paris looks competent both at the plate and in the field so far this year, yet Ron Washington seems resistant to putting him into the Angels starting lineup. What has to happen for Paris to claim Tim Anderson's spot in the lineup?

Steve Adams

1:06

Lot of Kyren Paris hype in the early questions

1:10

I will say this: we're looking at a sample of 22 plate appearances. In that time, he's barreled up two balls (per Statcast), both of which were homers. Most of the rest of his contact has been decidedly poor. I don't agree that he looks like a different player -- just that he's had different-looking results in a small sample. He's still chasing off the plate and swinging within the zone at comparable rates to last year. If anything, his chase rate is slightly up (although it's still well below-average). His contact rate on pitches in the zone is way down, and his swinging-strike rate is up, accordingly.

It's easy to place a ton of emphasis on spring/early-season results. What Paris is doing so far doesn't fill me with tons of confidence. If you're asking for fantasy purposes, I suppose I'd be looking to sell high if there's another believer in your league, as I think he looks like even at best he'll be a low-average/power guy with good SB contributions.

MO MICHETTE

1:11

Do the Jays lock up Bo next? What are you projecting for his contract? Asking for a friend.

Steve Adams

1:13

I don't think the two sides could find a suitable middle ground right now. The Jays are going to want to price in some of last year's terrible season, and Bichette isn't going to want to sell himself short. They could still try to re-sign him in free agency, but an extension at any point early in the season feels like an awfully tough balance to strike.

Grateful Follower

1:13

Filed Under Nice Problem to Have: Suppose Kurtz continues to destroy AAA pitching and Soderstrom is for real (no, not a .380 hitter with 80+ HR but a .250-.260 hitter with 30+ HR). The only way to squeeze Rooker, Butler, Langeliers and those two into a lineup presumably forces Kurtz or Soderstrom to LF (can’t imagine any of the manning 3B). Is that how you see it? Any feel for whom, between Soderstrom and Kurtz might be more capable of playing OF at a non-butcher level? Thanks

Steve Adams

1:15

Kurtz is listed at 6'5", 240 pounds. Soderstrom is 6'2", 200 pounds and has been a slightly better-than-average runner in the earlygoing this year (27.6 ft/sec sprint speed, per Statcast). Just based on size and speed alone, he feels like the more plausible OF candidate. Should also remember that Rooker has plenty of experience out there. He's not a good defender, but if all three of those guys are hitting to their capabilities, the A's will live with the shoddy defense from some combination of Rooker/Soderstrom in the outfield.

Of course, that assumes they're all healthy and productive, which is hardly a given when looking a few months down the line at any trio of players.

wkkortas

1:16

So where does the Brewers' trade for Priester sit on the scale ranging from "kind of an overpay" to "outright panic move"?

Fruit Ninja

1:16

What's your opinion on the Priester trade? Brewers got hosed, good move by the Crew, or a little of both?

Steve Adams

1:19

I would say a lot of the pushback on the Priester trade stems from the trap a lot of people fall into with top prospect lists... there's a definite allure of the unknown, and when guys don't succeed immediately, a lot of folks write them off.

Priester is a former first-rounder himself and if all of two years removed from being a top-100 prospect. He's controllable for six more years and is MLB-ready right now. There's value in that, even if he's only a fourth/fifth starter.

I tend to value guys of this mold a bit more highly than prospect rankings and, clearly, than some big league teams do. But Priester is 24 all season, has pitched decently (not great) in the upper minors, has pedigree, and is joining a team that's known for unlocking new gears in pitchers. Controllable pitching is probably the hardest commodity to acquire in MLB.

1:20

It could look bad in the long run, but an MLB-ready starter for a team with six starters on the injured list has a lot of value. The range of outcomes for the No. 33 overall pick is wide. Yes, you could pull a huge prospect ... you could also pull someone who's never even a top prospect, or someone who fits the very description of Priester -- the No. 18 pick in 2019 and a highly touted guy for a couple years before settling in as someone whose ceiling is seen as something lesser.

1:22

Yophery Rodriguez is a solid-looking prospect, but h's 19 and in A-ball with what most scouting reports seem to think is below-average power and maybe a bit less athleticism/projection than you'd like to see in a prospect that age. I don't know a ton about him and haven't personally asked around a lot about him, so I'm going off the same FanGraphs/MLB.com/Baseball America scouting reports that a lot of our readers are right now, admittedly.

Broadly, for six years of a potential immediate rotation piece to a team that has a good track record of maximizing development, this seems like a reasonable risk to take, in my view.

Jason

1:23

i'm not normally all doom and gloom less than three weeks into the season but after last season's collapse i'm quickly losing faith in the twins. is there any hope of a turnaround or are my concerns justified?

Steve Adams

1:26

Yes and no? I mean, you can look at this as a team that missed the playoffs last year and just didn't get a lot better in the offseason. That's reason to be concerned right there.

Insofar as the early struggles themselves, I don't put a lot of stock in it. Even most contending clubs will have a stretch of the season where they go 3-7 and the offense and/or pitching looks lost.

I picked the Twins to win the Central and generally think they'll be fine, especially if Royce Lewis hits well upon his reinstatement, but they were an 82-80 team that didn't do a lot to improve, so the margin for error is thinner than with some other clubs.

Lenny

1:26

After the past week’s extensions what are Cubs chances of agreeing to something with Kyle Tucker? Actually surprised at some of the deals finalized…

Steve Adams

1:27

Not good? Here's Tucker when he was asked about Vlad's extension yesterday (via The Athletic):

“I’m sure he loves playing in Toronto and everything. That’s great for him. But everyone’s a little different. Right now, I’m here to play this year and play for the Cubs.”

1:28

I've never thought Tucker was a likely extension candidate, and I don't think the Vlad deal had any real impact on that.

Taker55

1:28

If Alonso has a decent year and opts out, he kind of has to leave the Mets right? The whole "I want to stay here" thing doesn't work if he's opting out right?

Steve Adams

1:29

Not at all. He can want to stay there but not "want to stay there" for the remaining one-year deal he's facing. He can easily opt out, test the market, and re-sign. No one's going to begrudge him for that, and I don't think it punctures a whole in his narrative that he wants to stay there if he opts out and makes sure there isn't someone who's willing to pay him $60-70MM more than the Mets are or something.

John Pork

1:31

what’s your take on the increasing contracts of baseball players. Soto is NOT worth 700 million dollars and is not worth more than 40 million a year annually when Aaron Judge is making less money and is the better player. The argument that ‘he’s still young’ doesn’t really suffice for me.

Steve Adams

1:33

My take is that you and I define what a player is worth differently. They're worth what the market is willing to pay. Judge signed when he was 31 and signed away the tail end of his physical prime and what people expect to be a lot of decline years.

If he'd been a 27-year-old free agent, he'd probably have commanded $50MM+ as well.

The question you're asking, when focusing on AAV, is one of what either player would command for one season of his prime. But that question is hypothetical and ignores the context of the ages at which the player signs. You're dismissing that, which is your right, but I would say it's an inextricable and critical factor to player valuation.

Trades

1:34

SF and Boston trade: Mason Black (or another lower ranked young pitcher) for Yoshida.

Steve Adams

1:35

I've said for months that I don't think the Sox could trade Yoshida even if they ate three quarters of the contract. As a free agent, I think he'd have gotten around $8MM or less on a one-year deal. He's owed $54MM over three.

1:36

No chance the Giants give up Mason Black and take on Yoshida's contract. I doubt they'd give up Black even if the Red Sox were eating $45MM of the deal. Or if the Red Sox were eating the entire deal, for that matter.

King Tuck

1:37

I don't think an extension will happen. Whether it does or doesn't. What does his next maybe his last contract start with? I'm guessing 4. Do you think The Ricketts family open their check book for him? He's already proven in 10 games that he's the superstar they've been missing.

Steve Adams

1:37

Depends how his season plays out. A $500MM deal doesn't seem impossible, but I'd err toward $400-something.

1:39

Also as a reminder that spring training stats are silly, the number of people saying "Cam Smith for Kyle Tucker is the worst trade in Cubs history" in these chats has plummeted from dozens to zero in a matter of two weeks.

(Not saying Cam Smith won't be great, but judging any trade based on 40 spring PAs, many coming against minor league pitchers, is silly -- whether that means handwringing over a superstar having a poor camp or overreacting to a prospect tearing the cover off the ball)

1:40

The Red Sox called up Josh Winckowski and designated Robert Stock for assignment. Also put Connor Wong and the IL and called up Blake Sabol

(All announced by the team just now)

Cleveland

1:41

I imagine Cleveland and Kwan were discussing an extension and couldn’t agree. Is it smart for Kwan to bet on himself and not sign? He’s going to be older in FA and doesn’t have much power. Seems like it would be smart for him to try to get a reasonable extension right now.

Steve Adams

1:45

I don't really agree that he'll be an "older" free agent. He'll hit free agency right after his 30th birthday and be 30 for all his first FA year. That's pretty typical, and even ever-so-slightly on the younger side for a free agent.

The Guardians probably aren't bowling him over with a market-value offer. He's already earning $4.175MM this year and probably has another $18-20MM coming his way via his final two arbitration seasons, pending a steep decline. At worst, he knows he has this year's $4.175MM and probably $5-6MM next year, as he's not going to be non-tendered even if he misses the whole year due to an injury or just has an uncharacteristically bad season.

We don't know what Cleveland was pitching, but he has a realistic chance to earn $100MM or more over the next eight years, even with the lack of power. He's a much better player right now than Andrew Benintendi was when he signed his five-year, $75MM deal for instance. Benny was younger, but still.

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