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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 1/17/23
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Steve Adams
Greetings all! Looking forward to chatting today. I'll back at 1pm to get this underway!
Let us begin!
Are they going to make any more moves?  They need at least one starter and bullpen help, even another outfielder who actually stays healthy.
Steve Adams
I don't really expect them to do much of anything, though there's obviously some wiggle room with regard to the 40-man and certainly payroll space. They have rotation jobs earmarked for Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft. They signed Luke Weaver to compete for another. Would imagine Connor Overton, Luis Cessa, Brandon Williamson, Justin Dunn, Levi Stoudt are all options to compete at the back of the group as well.
In the outfield they've already added Wil Myers. Certainly wouldn't need to sell me on how there's room for more, but I'm sure they still want to try to get Senzel healthy in center, and then you've got Friedl, Fraley, Solak and a few others competing for what's lefft.
Marlins Pitching
Are the Fish ever going to trade one of their arms? What would it take to get Bryan Reynolds?
Steve Adams
Sure, but there aren't many other (or any other) arms out there who are in this same caliber, and they're talking with more than half the league about the guys they're willing to trade. I'm not surprised it's a drawn-out process.

Reynolds would cost enough that Marlins fans would presumably be uninterested in making the move. I don't know exactly what Miami has asked for, but I'd be surprised if they weren't targeting Eury Perez as a centerpiece, plus several other quality young talents
MN Fan
I keep hearing that the Twins are likely to trade Max Kepler. While I have always enjoyed watching him play, I also recognize that he will not yield a great return. What are some some trade scenarios that for the Twins that I can actually be excited about?
Steve Adams
Yeah I do think that's likely at some point, although I also thought it'd have happened by now, so maybe the offers just haven't been worth it. The return won't be franchise-altering or anything, but I don't see why Kepler and his mostly reasonable contract (plus some potential upside in the post-shift world) couldn't net a useful big league reliever. That's not super exciting for Twins fans, perhaps, but they're deep in LHH outfielders and could definitely use at least one more quality arm.
Have you seen the current projections for Eddie Rosario, and do you buy them? They seem to suggest he will be the worst player in the league by a lot, but the Braves seem to still have faith in his value
Steve Adams
Those are impacted by last year's struggles, which are going to factor prominently into any projection. It's also worth pointing out that Rosario just hasn't been a very good player since around 2018.

Braves fans fell in love with him, I'm sure, with that prodigious hot streak following the 2021 trade deadline, but Rosario has been an average (at best) bat with poor defense for years now.

I was surprised they re-signed him at two years and $18MM.

I'm probably not quite as bearish as Steamer (.240/.288/.397) and some other projection systems on him, but I don't have tons of optimism about a rebound, either.
Craig Burger
Gary Sanchez to Royals?  Realistic?
Steve Adams
I don't see the appeal for Gary. No disrespect to the Royals, just saying that there aren't going to be many ABs for him at catcher because Perez works such a big workload, and at DH the Royals will want to give at-bats to young first basemen like Nick Pratto and Vinnie Pasquantino.

There's just not a great amount of playing time for Sanchez there, and when you're looking around for what's probably a one-year deal in hopes of doing better on next year's free-agent market, assuring yourself of some playing time is important.
Dan P
Hi Steve - is there any news on Yuli Gurriel? He's entering his age 39 season and coming off of a poor 2022  regular season (though a good playoff run and one year removed from winning the batting title). It doesn't look like there is a spot for him back with the Astros.
Steve Adams
Been pretty quiet on Gurriel. If he wants to keep going, I would imagine it'll be on a minor league deal or a one-year deal with a very low base and plenty of incentives.  Marlins would make some sense here on one of those deals.

But like you said, he's 39. He just won a ring. Wouldn't be crazy to me if he held out hoping for a return to Houston and, failing that, just called it.
White Sox fan
I know he's not the favorite going into the year, but I'm going to submit Oscar Colas as a dark-horse RoY candidate. He'll have plenty of playing time, probably from day 1, and has played at high levels professionally before, so pressure shouldn't phase him. How realistic is it to think he has a chance?
Steve Adams
He's a decently well-regarded prospect but not to the extent many people think -- due in part to his agents/trainers/whoever trying to senselessly hype him up as the "Cuban Ohtani," which was always nonsensical.

I think Colas has a chance to hit for power but probably with limited average/OBP numbers and without great defensive value in right field.

I also don't know about him being up from Day One. He'll have the chance to compete, but I don't consider it a given that he makes the Opening Day roster.
All of which, I guess, is to say that I don't really consider him a strong ROY candidate. But hey, maybe he hits 30 bombs and forces his way into the conversation. Voters will still take his OBP and defense into consideration, though.
Who’s getting called up first Wynn or Walker?
Steve Adams
I'd lean Jordan Walker. They're both 20 and have both had ample experience in AA, but Walker hit quite a bit more and there. Masyn Winn is still developing as a full-time position player after converting from a two-way guy in high school, too.
Can the Giants sign Ohtani next year?
Steve Adams
The only have about $100MM on the 2024 books. No reason they can't be prominent players in his market.
What is the likelihood that Scott Harris will trade Eduardo Rodriguez before the start of the season?
Steve Adams
Rodriguez is coming off a down season and has an opt-out in his contract after the year. If you're the acquiring team, the two scenarios for you are:

1) He rebounds, pitches quite well, and opts out -- rendering him a one-year rental.
2) He pitches poorly, and then you're stuck with the final three years and $49MM

That makes it pretty tough for any team to align with the Tigers on a deal.
Pablo Lopez to Cards for Burleson and Winn - fair trade?
Steve Adams
I think the Cardinals would balk; Winn is the type of crazy athlete who's a few hot months away from shooting up into top-10 overall MLB prospect status, and he's already ranked pretty favorably in some places.
Harry Caray
Holy cow! Swanson, Bellinger, Mancini, Hosmer, Barnhart, Taillon, Smyly, Boxberger + Chafin/Moore rumors - is this an underrated top 5 offseason? (considering they only lost Contreras and a few AAAA pieces)
Steve Adams
I wouldn't say "only" lost Contreras. He's better than any of the players you just mentioned, perhaps with the exception of Swanson. The Barnhart and Hosmer additions do little for me, and while I figured Taillon would get four years and Smyly might get two, the final price points were north of where I'd have gone (not that that should matter much for a team like the Cubs).

It's been a fine offseason, but seems like you're a bit more bullish on it than I am.
Jurickson Profar
Should I contact the White Sox for a job since I can be the everyday 2nd baseman and also play in the outfield, seems like a good fit to me?
Steve Adams
I don't think any team views Profar as a second baseman anymore. I've said this a lot in recent weeks. He had a huge case of the yips with the A's, was traded to San Diego for a light return and quickly pushed into left field. When the Padres needed some help at 2B in 2022, they rolled the dice on an already-released Robinson Cano and ran him out there for a couple weeks, rather than giving a look to Profar.
Profar's a left fielder at this point
helpless in cin
can you please say something positive about the reds?
Steve Adams
I like Nick Lodolo
Vidal Brujan for Gavin Sheets?
Steve Adams
Sheets doesn't have the value to bring back Brujan, even after the latter struggled in his MLB debut
What are the Dodgers doing? Why didn't they sign a big free agent?
Steve Adams
The market movement toward long-term deals whose length is designed to tamp down luxury-tax concerns is antithetical to the Dodgers' general preference for shorter-term, higher-AAV deals. There are obviously exceptions (Mookie Betts chief among them), but I don't think the Dodgers are going to jump into the 10-, 11-, 12-year deal trend unless it's for one specific player: Shohei Ohtani.

That dovetails with some other potential reasons -- resetting the luxury tax, particularly if they plan for a spirited run at Ohtani next winter, makes sense.

I also do genuinely buy that they want to give some of their younger talent a chance to prove they can be regular contributors moving forward, be it Lux, Outman, Miller, etc. etc.
Parking Lot Attendant McCourt
So with Rojas and all the Arb deals done the Dodgers are over the Lux Cap, how do they realistically get under?
Steve Adams
They're not that far over -- something like a matter of a couple million dollars. That can be accomplished either prior to the season by moving an arb-eligible player or in-season if they trade way a reliever who's making decent money or something. I don't think being at 236MM-ish right now is all that heavy a detriment to making something work.

To be clear, I think the Dodgers should just say screw it and pay the tax every year, but hey I don't own the team.
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