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2024-25 Top 50 Free Agent chat with MLBTR's Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Darragh McDonald
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Steve Adams
8:32
Good morning! We'll host a chat in a little bit exclusively to discuss our Top 50 Free Agent list. If you have questions about our contract predictions, think we overlooked or overestimated a player, or generally want to tell us why we're a bunch of big wrong dummies, now's your chance!
If you missed the list earlier this week, you can check it out here:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/11/2024-25-top-50-mlb-free-agents-...
8:37
And, if you enjoy the work that went into the Top 50 and everything else we do here at MLBTR and want to support us further, you can consider subscribing for the Trade Rumors Front Office package, which includes ad-free viewing, weekly articles from Anthony Franco and myself, a weekly mailbag with Tim Dierkes, a weekly subscriber-only chat with Anthony (where you obviously have a higher chance of getting questions answered), Q&A opportunities with Darragh, fantasy baseball advice from Nicklaus Gaut, access to our Contract Tracker, Agency Database and Offseason Outlook series, and more. It starts at $2.99/month.

Tim, Darragh and I will get going in about 25 minutes. Looking forward to it!
Bubba
9:00
I think many Mets fans are hoping they can sign Juan Soto this offseason.  If that doesn't work out, what would be a best plan B for them in terms of position players?
Tim Dierkes
9:00
Oh sorry, meant to start by saying - welcome to the chat!
9:01
On Bubba's question, I'd vote for Alex Bregman perhaps followed by Willy Adames.
Darragh McDonald
9:02
Those two make a lot of sense. They could also go for the non-Soto outfielders like Teoscar or Santander. Or this guy named Pete Alonso.
Steve Adams
9:04
Yeah, Alonso is a big one, but they could do both. I'd echo Bregman/Adames/Santander /Teoscar. There's really no position player they can't afford, and the trade market has ample avenues. We posted our top 35 candidates here:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/10/top-35-trade-candidates-mlb-off...
John
9:04
What do you see the Tigers do realistically in the off-season to improve upon last year?
Tim Dierkes
9:05
I'll start by pointing you toward Mark Polishuk's Tigers Offseason Outlook: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/10/offseason-outlook-detroit-tiger...
9:06
But it seems like they want to add a RH hitter with some power, who could perhaps go to 3B, an OF corner, or 1B.  I picked Christian Walker and I know some feel Bregman makes sense if they'd spend to that level.  And then they clearly need at least one SP and should probably supplement the bullpen.
Darragh McDonald
9:07
As much as the pitching chaos worked down the stretch, they should bolster the rotation for a full season. They could get anyone, really. They payroll is well below previous highs. But there's also a "believe it when I see it" attitude to them doing that, so it might be short-term deals. I think I gave them Manaea in our Top 50 or someone like that.
Steve Adams
9:08
I think they'll sign one relatively high-end starter -- someone from the Flaherty/Manaea/Kikuchi range, and they've been pretty open about a right-handed bat which makes me like them as a fit for Teoscar Hernandez. There's an obviious on-paper fit for Alex Bregman, but I'm skeptical of their willingness to go to those lengths. A second SP wouldn't shock me but it'd be someone lower... Heaney, Boyd, a trade for Jon Gray, etc.
$$$
9:08
Smart move by Cardinals to maximize roster with Contreras at 1st and then trade from positions depth and get better defense at catcher and his bat in line up more often ? Other options to reset with same payroll?
Tim Dierkes
9:10
Once the Cards were boxed in by Contreras' desire to stay (he has a no-trade clause), then moving him to 1B seems smart.  I think they'd prefer him to be open to trades, but it's his right to want to stay.  It sounds like Sonny Gray may be in a similar camp.  I was asked yesterday how many of Contreras, Gray, Arenado, and Helsley will be traded.  I said three, but after Mo's comments and Goold's article yesterday, I'd probably just pick the last two.
Darragh McDonald
9:11
I think it's smart for them to give Herrera playing time while they're resetting. He's earned a shot and it's the time to do it. Best thing would probably be to trade Willson now but it seems he doesn't want to go. So within those limitations, moving Willson to first is probably the best thing.
Steve Adams
9:11
If Contreras really prefers to stay in STL no matter what, then yeah I think it's a fine move. I thought he made good sense as a trade candidate in a thin catching market, but that's his choice with his NTC. The Cards could pivot and trade Herrera for young pitching, then sign Danny Jansen on the cheap and hope for a rebound. I might even like that path better, but it seems they'll go a different route.
Buster Posey
9:11
Is it possible I go after both Kim and Adames, moving Fitzgerald to a utility role once Kim is healthy?
Tim Dierkes
9:13
Basically I think you're asking whether the Giants would sign both players and then put one at second base.  If Kim lingers on the market and isn't ready until July or something, and there are real concerns about his arm strength coming off labrum surgery, then I suppose a scenario where he signs for one year and plays some 2B makes sense.  Signing both with Chapman locked in at 3B seems unlikely though.
Darragh McDonald
9:13
It's possible, sure, but other teams will want shortstops and it's not likely that the Giants win the bidding twice. The Rangers did get Seager and Semien in the same offseason but that kind of thing doesn't happen often and shouldn't be expected.
Steve Adams
9:14
Possible, sure, in the sense that the Giants are about $75MM from their franchise-record payroll level. I think Posey seems intent on more impactful hitters than Kim, however, who's an average-ish bat with plus defense. I do like Adames as a fit there, but in the event he signs with SF, the next move after that -- for me -- is rotation help or a corner bat who can hit in the middle of the order. Pete Alonso and Scott Boras probably did a cartwheel when Posey was talking on record yesterday about how RBIs are still important. Well... if Scott can do a cartwheel. Probably not. He's what? 70?
Tim Dierkes
9:15
the Polar Bear is hungry...for RBIye steaks
Steve Adams
9:15
Stop
Nick M
9:15
What were the years and dollars for me before the Reds put a QO on me?
Tim Dierkes
9:16
I'm just gonna paste in my mailbag answer to a similar question, and then see if Darragh and Steve have anything to add.
Arend asks:
As a Reds fan, I don’t particularly like Nick Martinez accepting the qualifying offer. What do you think the chances are that either the Reds negotiate a longer deal or some other team does?
The Reds are often hampered by payroll limitations, and locking in Martinez at $21.05MM before Thanksgiving would remove a lot of flexibility early on for a low-ceiling player. According to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer, “The Reds floated a two-year extension with Martinez without gaining much traction ahead of the decision, sources said.” Wittenmyer added that Martinez “could be in line for a three-year deal as a free agent and isn’t expected to accept the qualifying offer.”
For his part, Martinez said it’s “time to kind of maximize,” backing up the idea that he’s tired of returning to free agency each year.
We had Martinez around three years and $39-42MM without a qualifying offer. Occasionally, a mid-tier pitcher like Martinez can receive a qualifying offer and find a team willing to stomach
ya know what, that didn't work great
but yes to answer the question, I think around 3/39-42
Steve Adams
9:17
Ha, we had 3/39. I think he and the Reds will settle on something like 2/32 or 3/39 now
Grateful Follower
9:17
Is there one player in particular from your Top 50 where you think, “Yes, I think those are pretty much the terms he’ll agree to but whatever team gets him him at those terms is likely getting quite a bargain”
Tim Dierkes
9:18
ah man.  I'm trying to find a good answer to this and failing, mostly because winning the bidding for a top 50-worthy player usually means going beyond "bargain" territory.  Steve and Anthony have talked Snell up so much that I've come around to the idea that perhaps the market is low on him particularly if he comes in below our 160 mil figure
Darragh McDonald
9:19
We projected Danny Jansen for 2/20 because the end of his 2024 was so bad. If he gets back to his previous form, he'd be a massive bargain.
Steve Adams
9:20
Eovaldi for me. His age caps him pretty short-term, and I think he'll pitch at or in excess of a $20MM level pretty comfortably as long as he's healthy.

Agree on Darragh's Danny Jansen call as a possible one. Matthew Boyd on a two-year deal could be real nice if he's healthy.
Curious george
9:20
Tell me how Yank$ are not better off with Teoscar and Bregman instead of Soto and some mediocre 10m$ 3b.
Tim Dierkes
9:21
First off, there is not a mediocre $10MM 3B to be had.  But in your scenario they're forfeiting four draft picks, adding a second high K% RH hitting OF, and going long-term on Bregman who has some red flags.  If I had to choose between the two I'd choose signing Soto, even not knowing what the 3B/2B solution might be.
Darragh McDonald
9:23
You could argue in a vacuum that three decent-ish players could approximate Soto's value, but they would do it in three lineups spots compared to just one. You could also possibly get Teoscar-level value from someone like Jasson Dominguez, so that money is not necessary well-spent. Whereas very few players can reasonably be expected to give you Soto-esque production for a long period of time.
Steve Adams
9:23
I'd rather have the 26-year-old superstar who's among the three best hitters in the sport. Soto is consistently elite and squarely in his prime. Hernandez has already shown volatility on a year-to-year basis. Bregman just had one of his worst offensive seasons. There's a real chance both Bregman and Hernandez are like 10% better than average at the plate in 2025 and Soto while Soto is 60-70% better on his own.

They're better off signing Soto and sticking in house at 3B than they are signing Bregman/Teo, honestly. And I say that as one the high guy on Bregman on the team and a perennial Tesocar believer.

Soto's just that good. Every year. Hard stop.
Tom from Philly
9:24
The way I look at it, I only see six teams that likely won't be at least in the mix for major free agents (Rays, White Sox, Athletics, Marlins, Cardinals Rockies). You expecting to see more fireworks this year than last?
Tim Dierkes
9:26
Despite the very loose Rays/Soto connection that popped up yesterday, I think it's fair to say they're unlikely to do a $100MM contract.  The A's I think will be more active than usual but also not going after a major FA.  To your question, I guess it depends on where you draw the line for major FA.  Fairly skeptical on the Padres, Reds, Angels, Rangers, Guardians, DBacks, Brewers, Pirates, Astros, Mariners, Twins, or Braves signing a top 10 FA
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