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11/25/25 Capitalist Times Live Chat
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AvatarElliott Gue
2:01
Hello everyone and welcome to the November chat. And Happy Thanksgiving.  As a reminder, this is a text-only chat -- to ask a question, simply type your question into the text box and we'll answer all questions in the order received.   We'll send out a searchable PDF transcript of the chat tomorrow. I'll start with some questions   we received via e-mail ahead of the chat.
Q Hello Roger. Thank you so much for your quick reply to my previous email! Please feel free to use this in today's live Web Chat. Since we spoke, VZ stock has declined and only up 1.95% YTD. Add to that they announced 13,000 headcount reduction. Other than SpaceX speculation, is there something
else to be concerned about? Thanks!—Rob N.
2:02
A. Hi Rob

I don't think we have much to worry about with Verizon at this point.
The headcount reduction is a big number and I actually know people
affected. But it was largely expected and reflects the business
transition from legacy wireline to digital and the use of AI for basic
functions. It's not a sign the company is faltering--and it's just
coming off a quarter where they raised guidance.

The stock has been up and down this year for any number of reasons.
But I don't think SpaceX is going to emerge as a real competitive
threat. Most likely, it will continue to enter partnerships with the
Big 3. But the record of trying to be a fourth wireless competitor is
pretty dismal. And I think they're going to want to use that spectrum
more profitably.
Joe W.
2:03
The July Capitalist Times chat transcript somewhat touted DMLP.

Since then, DMLP price dropped 20% to lowest since Feb 2022; RSI now just 28.

In the same period since the CT chat in Jul, BSM dropped further but rallied to 10% above. 

Please advise, and address in the Nov chat.
AvatarElliott Gue
2:03
Hi Joe

I think one reason Dorchester has underperformed Black Stone a little
bit recently is that it's more oil-weighted as a royalty trust--while BSM is more gas weighted. And oil prices have been weaker than gas prices recently. But the bottom line though is both are doubly
leveraged to commodity prices as its their ability to pay dividends.
Dorchester's payout is pretty much adjusted every quarter depending on
receipts while Black Stone tries to pay at a steadier rate. But we like both of them because we're bullish on oil and gas prices.
AvatarElliott Gue
2:03
Q. Hi Roger. What are your current thoughts on LyondellBassel (NYSE: LYB)? I have a current underwater position on the stock, but I am a long term hold dividend investor so I am not worried about the current price. 
 
What is your opinion of this stock at this time? Is it a buy, sell or hold at this time and at what prices. How are the markets for its chemical products? Since oil is at a lower price, one would expect its margins to be improvising and not deteriorating unless the sales prices of its products are deteriorating even faster.
Been a member for over 20 years and you and Elliott have certainly performed for me over that time period. Thanks—Ralph B.
2:04
A. Hi Ralph

I really don't have anything to add to what I wrote in the November CUI Plus a couple weeks ago about Lyondell. They reported what I thought was a very solid Q3--with their "cash improvement plan" largely offsetting the cash flow impact of
headwinds in the petrochemicals market for their key products.


Management also gave a pretty strong defense of why they think they
can maintain their dividend through what they call a "cyclical bottom"
in the next few months. That includes the fact that they were not
aggressive during the recent cyclical upturn, either with CAPEX or the
dividend. They have a very large cash position and they're moving
ahead with several asset sales in Europe as they expand less cyclical
parts of their business.

Chemical prices are weak right now for a number of reasons. But I think the stock certainly prices in a dividend cut here as much as 50%. If the environment does worsen more than management thinks it will in 2026, we may indeed see them cut, as
Dow Chemical did this past summer. But it may also be that management sticks to its guns that it has prepared the company for downturns and keeps paying at the current rate.
 
I may still recommend selling this stock this month for a tax loss  to offset gains in the CUI Plus portfolio. But other than that, I'm
comfortable holding onto this well run company--which could very well be a huge winner next year and will when cyclical headwinds become tailwinds.
Q. Hi Roger:
You have been making a case for Brookfield Renewable (TSX: BEP-U/BEPC, NYSE: BEP/BEPC being a good investment to play nuclear energy growth.... I've been trying to understand how that would work.... I've read that Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners owns 51% of Westinghouse Electric Company, which builds nuclear power plants. But how does Westinghouse stand up against its competitors, and does it have any current contracts to build, and what do you see in its future? Thanks—Jack A.
2:05
A. Hi Jack

Westinghouse is essentially the US nuclear national champion. That was clearly acknowledged earlier this fall, when the company entered a $50 billion "partnership" with the US government to rebuild nuclear
construction supply chains and build a new fleet of plants. Westinghouse is the developer of the AP-1000, the design for the two new
reactors now operated by Southern Company (NYSE: SO) at the Vogtle
site in Georgia. They are the only two reactors to enter service in the US since the 1980s. They're also the design for the Summer site in  South Carolina--a project put on the shelf in the previous decade due
to cost and now set to be revived.

Westinghouse isn't getting the hype of companies like Oklo etc. But it
is the only nuclear EPC in the US that has actual earnings--and designs that have been sold commercially. That includes SMRs—small modular reactors—such as the AP-300. It’s the only nuclear company in America that actually has proven its machines work. If there is a nuclear
renaissance in this country, it's going to get the lion's share of the business. And Brookfield and Cameco will be prime beneficiaries as the co-owners—they also have earnings from other sources. So if nuclear hype proves to be a big bust, they will go on while the Oklos of the world go the way of Solyndra, SunPower and other green boom busts.
 
2:06
Q. Hi Roger,
 
I’m not sure if you and Elliott follow Doomberg’s writings on Substack but I’m forwarding their latest piece that promotes the concept of Peak Cheap Oil is a Myth. The premise is that the supermajors are technology companies that happen to produce energy and that sources of petroleum are infinite. They will keep finding new technology to produce oil more cheaply or to at least keep the price suppressed. Additionally, they cite declining use of hydrocarbons as EVs displace diesel as in China, reduced consumption of oil in power generation, marine cargo ships leaning into LNG over bunker fuel and NGL production that should also be included in the definition of oil.
 
I contrast this with Arjun Murti on Veritens Super-Spiked who is bullish oil and comments that there are 6 billion people underserved by oil/energy.
 
How do you reconcile these potentially conflicting viewpoints with the respect of investing in oil producers for the long term.
I’m thinking that both views are correct, that oil companies are cyclical, to overweight them when prices are comparatively low but don’t get married to them. 
2:07
A. Thanks Phil. As you know, we are building a presence on Substack. And one of the advisories I do subscribe to Doomberg—for one reason it’s one of the most successful on the forum. I find the articles to be always well written and interesting, even if I don't always agree with their conclusions.
 
Our view is the most important factor concerning oil and natural gas prices right now--in fact energy in general--is acute “underinvestment” relative to even a conservative projection of future demand. That basically ensures we're going to see higher prices in the next 3 to 5 years. And companies that are able to invest now in production (like ExxonMobil_ are set up to be prime beneficiaries. 
 
Q3 earnings as we noted in the November EIA support the underinvestment thesis--as companies focus on cutting costs in an environment of still low oil and gas prices. This is not exactly the same question as whether we're about to hit peak supply or Doomberg's assertion that super majors will also lead the industry toward
exploiting new reserves to avoid running out--as happened with shale. But we believe focusing on the 3-5 year cycle is far more useful from an investment point of view. And the key to that bullish thesis right now is simply underinvestment to meet the new demand—even with aggressive assumptions for EVs and renewables and conservative assumptions for well decline rates.
Q. Hi Roger, Mark Willens here, long time subscriber.
Genuinely appreciate all your hard work and all the excellent information you provide. I would like to know your thoughts on the news regarding Eversource (ES) and the utility commission rejection of the sale of their water business.
Is it possible that ES could get approval to sell their water business to another utility? Thank you very kindly !—Mark W.
2:08
Hi Mark. I wrote extensively on this last week for Conrad’s Utility Investor readers.
 
Since then, the company has issued a statement basically reaffirming 2025 earnings
Guidance that it raised earlier this month, as well as 5-7% annual growth.
 
It also implied it would not have to issue a lot of stock. And affirmed Aquarion
Would remain part of the company. I’m comfortable holding it the stock.
Q: Good morning, Roger,
 
As a long-time owner of NEE and still holding quite a bit of NEP, I've read recently about NUAI and wonder what your thoughts might be on this very cheap stock. Is it this cheap for a reason or is it something worth considering?
 
Hope you and yours have a safe and Happy Thanksgiving. Thank you—Chuck B
A.  Happy Thanksgiving to you Chuck!
 
I don’t think New Era Energy has any connection to NextEra Energy. They’re the former New Era Helium. And they frankly seem to be living on a shoestring, just recently being reinstated on NASDAQ after being in violation. Tread carefully.
Q. Hi Roger,
 
Is the SOBO dividend subject to Canadian withholding in non IRA accounts?
 
Thanks,
Jeff
2:09
A.Hi Jeff
 
Yes I think so, though there’s supposed to be no withholding on IRA accounts.
Q. Hi Roger, do you think it is a good time to invest in SLG, given its low price, high yield favorable articles discussing how great the real estate market in NYC will be in the future. Thank you in advance. Joe.
A. Hi Joe

Thanks for writing. SL Green is down a long way this year. And the yield looks attractive. But distribution coverage if you take out the
transactions is fairly thin. There's also the issue of the new mayor and what if anything that does to the NYC market. Bottom line, I’d rather play with something like BXP, which has property outside New York but is also a bet on that market.
Q. ARE - I know you cant call a bottom, but don't we reach a point where the real estate itself had its own or a minimum value? The high was over 200, maybe that was too much. But this year its gone from 100 to 50, cut in half again. I've owned and sold many residential properties over the years, and even in 2008 the worst drop was about 50%. I want to buy my last 1/3 allocation, but the fear is starting to get to me, and over power the logic. My cost basis is 62 right now. As of today ARE is at 50.60.
2:10
PS - love your newsletters, and have for many years now.--Eric
2:11
A. Thanks Eric. Yes, I have no idea where this REIT bottoms. I do think it's a pretty good example of how important momentum is in this market--and how far it can run in one direction or the other. But ARE isn't the only REITwhere a small year to date loss has become a large one--with investors responding to weakness but nothing of the magnitude to justify such a big drop. And right now this is a group with a lot of selling momentum behind it.

I think the dividend cut took a lot of people by surprise--given the earnings still comfortably supported the higher rate. Ironically,
holding in more cash as they're doing does insulate the business plan and balance sheet from the REIT's high cost of capital right now. They will be able to finance their development plans, which should provide an additional layer of protection for the business against current headwinds in the biotech space. But it may be a while before the stock stops trading at a discount.
As we've seen with many stocks this year, when a stock drops on news like this, the analysts covering it do a little CYA and reduce
12-month price targets. That's happened here. And the result has been a little extra selling for ARE.

If I had this to do over again, I might have advised getting out when  the momentum shifted against this stock so severely this year. But I  think the thing to do is just hold onto it for now. This is the best REIT in a sector with great long-term growth prospects and some near-term headwinds that are hitting its rivals more than they are. That's eventually going to work to this REIT's advantage. But it may be a while. The exception would be if someone had some big capital gains to balance off--say in another sector like utilities or tech. 
2:12
Q. Cher RC,
I see that BEP is currently ~$29 and BEPC ~$43. Why wouldn't everyone sell BEPC shares and then buy ~48% more BEP shares with the proceeds, thus getting a proportionally larger dividend?—PN 
 
A. Hi Paul

I do think BEP is a much better buy right now than BEPC for fresh money--for all of those reasons you name.

One reason not to sell your BEPC to buy BEP would be capital gains  taxes due. Also, there's no magic date the price gap narrows. So we  could be looking at a pretty wide discount for some time. But I think  this is ultimately an anomaly--even though a lot of people don't like K-1s.
Q. Roger,
Some time ago you mentioned a Deep Dive Article on the opportunities
in Canadian natural gas and LNG sector. Any update on that plan?

With the new pipelines and LNG facilities in BC and the shorter distance to Asia, there has to be some untapped opportunities. Help
us find them.--Kenney G.
 
A.Hi Kenney

Thanks for the reminder. It's definitely on the list of features for EIA. Meantime, we do have exposure to Canadian energy exports with
Pembina and TC Energy--as well as Ovintiv.
Dennis H.
2:18
Do you have any recommendation or target on EQT?
AvatarElliott Gue
2:18
We just did a deeper dive into natural gas and the natural gas E&Ps in the November 13th issue "The Year of Natural Gas Commodity Price Outlook and our Thoughts on the Natural Gas E&Ps." We have EQT as a buy under $55 and our intermediate term target is $75 based on our model of the company's free cash flow at $4.00/MMBtu.
JT
2:30
Hi Elliott, do you think the current correction is already over? Healthcare (XLV), pharma (PPH), and biotech (IBB) are not waiting and have already busted through the barn door and off to the races.  I would like to get in on these ETFs but waiting for confirmation that the rest of the market is ready.
AvatarElliott Gue
2:30
Thanks for the question. I just posted a piece this morning regarding the broader market, which I also posted up on my Substack. Basically, the maximum correction on a closing basis in the S&P 500 was 5% through last Thursday's close, which is a minimal correction given that the broader market pulls back 5% to 9.99% 2 to 3 times per year on average. I think it's getting more attention than it deserves mainly because the selling was led on the downside by the market's erstwhile leaders (basically the Magnificent 7 and Nasdaq).

The way I look at it the peak for the stock market was actually around September 11th, which was the peak of stock market breadth.

Your observation is quite right in my view. What we're really seeing is sector rotation more than a broad pullback -- healthcare and energy are both higher from where they were in late October when the S&P 500 peaked. In our trading products, CT Trader and Elliott's Options, we've been finding plenty of long-side trades that are working, and have been
AvatarElliott Gue
2:30
working, while the mainstream media has been  telling us that the market is weak. I mean, we just closed a trade in The RealReal for a 70% gain as the market was coming off its highs in early September -- REAL isn't exactly the sort of stock you'd expect to do well when the market is weak. There's a lot of strength out there -- it's just not in the names most people follow. So, to answer your question directly, I think we're going to see a rally into the end of the year for the S&P 500 but I think the leaders won't be the names like NVDA that everyone wants to talk about on TV. One more point before I climb down off my soapbox -- I think it's underappreciated how much monetary easing we're seeing right now. The federal government was taxing and auctioning off paper as normal straight through the shutdown but wasn't spending as normal; this basically siphoned money out of the private sector and tightened financial conditions. The daily Treasury statements show they've re-opened the taps and bank reserves are
2:31
rising again -- SOFR rates are falling and the Fed is likely to cut again on Dec. 10th. That alone is a significant tailwind.
das555
2:39
I don't know whether in your coverage universe crypto is addressed, but it seems to me that there has recently been an oversold condition established and IBIT appears attractive. Do you have any thoughts?
AvatarElliott Gue
2:39
We don't do much with crypto in the services. I did publish a piece approximately 2 weeks ago on my Substack re: bitcoin and fundamentally crypto markets are very sensitive to monetary conditions, particularly bank reserve. As I explained in an answer a bit earlier on in this chat, we've seen US bank reserves drain while the government was shut down.  The problem is that the federal  governments spending and financing needs -- taxes and borrowing -- are so enormous that it sucks a lot of cash out of the private sector (commercial bank reserves). That "OK," at least from a macro standpoint in normal times because the government spends money as fast as it makes it, which essentially replaces the bank reserves that are taxed and borrowed away. However, when the government was shut down we saw bank reserves plummet down to the pain point (sub $2.9 to $3.0 trillion).  This process corresponds almost exactly to peak in crypto this year and we've seen a similar dynamic play out in past cycles. So, the recent rise in
AvatarElliott Gue
2:39
bank reserves should be a tailwind for crypto. We're not recommending trades in crypto mainly because we see better opportunities elsewhere on the long side.
DRG
2:46
Hi Elliott, Recent report from Citi paints a long-term LNG oversupply risk stemming from massive capacity build projected during the next couple of years and with US emerging as a dominant low-cost supplier. Add to that is the possibility, albeit remote, of sanction relief for Russian Oil and Gas export if peace can be brokered in the Russia-Ukraine war which will likely exacerbate the oversupply situation. Like to know your thoughts on that scenario and its impact on US major players in the LNG export space – the likes of EXE, CQP and VG.
AvatarElliott Gue
2:46
Thanks for the question. Markets are forward-looking discount mechanisms and people have been talking about this oversupply risk for a few years now. The two big issues in my view are increased Permian supply as new pipelines are opened up to move gas out of the region to the Gulf Coast and south into Mexico. The second issue is Qatar, which has a major new LNG export project due for start and ramp up in 2027-29. However, the market knows this and, in my view, it's already baked into the forward curve and into related stock valuations. Also, there appears to be more than enough demand growth to soak up the new supply. As we wrote a couple of weeks ago in the November 13th issue, EXE and EQT have both been signing longer-term contracts for gas supply starting around 2030 at premium prices to the NYMEX benchmark. This suggests that large gas buyers are actually worried about securing adequate supply towards the end of the decade. So, my view is that the market is telling us it needs more reliable supply and
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