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Twins Outlook '23
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Anthony Franco
12:00
Hey everyone, hope you're all enjoying your morning
Let's talk Twins!
Twins Fan
12:00
Do guys like Justin Turner and JD Martinez make sense to bring in?
Anthony Franco
12:01
Probably depends on Buxton's health. If he's limited to DH again, there's not a ton of room. If they think he can spend 75% of his time in center field after the knee surgery, then I could see this. Like Turner as a fit more so than JDM because he'll be cheaper and can play some first base
Buster
12:01
Good evening. Would the Twins be a better team without Buxton? If so, what do you think his value would be on a trade?
Anthony Franco
12:03
Do I think they'd be a better team without Buxton on the roster? No. Would they prefer to offload the contract? Sure, but I also don't think that's doable coming off the season he just had
Who's on 1st?
12:03
With Kyle Farmer projected to earn $6.6M, do you see him as a trade chip or a non-tender?
Anthony Franco
12:04
Either seems plausible. I lean toward non-tender but if they found a taker for a middling return, it wouldn't shock me. Farmer feels like a $6MM-ish player
Matt
12:04
I would say the Twins key free agents are: Gray, Maeda, Pagan, Solano, and Taylor. Rank them likeliest to least likely to return
Anthony Franco
12:05
I'd probably go Solano, Taylor, Maeda, Pagán, Gray
I think they'll be priced out on Gray, especially since they'd have a strong rotation regardless, but retaining any of the other four seems totally reasonable
Louie Varland
12:06
I was lights out in the bullpen but am adamant I want to start. What do you think the twins do with me?
Anthony Franco
12:07
Could open the year working multiple innings out of the bullpen and step into the rotation once someone gets hurt
12:08
Or they could run a six-man staff early on to manage innings. I don't think Varland will enter the year as one of their top five starters but I expect he'll be in the rotation at some point during the season
Twins fan
12:08
Twins have traded for Lopez/Gray/Mahle/Paddack with 2 years of control remaining over the past couple years. Is there a #2 starter with 2 years of control that could be on the trade market this winter?
Anthony Franco
12:09
Dylan Cease is the best one but I have a hard time seeing the White Sox trading him in-division. Some chance the Pirates trade Mitch Keller, although I'd consider him more of a 3/4 than a #2 starter
12:10
He's more Paddack than López or Gray
TJ
12:10
Jose Miranda ‘23 - injury caused down year or more of the norm for him you think?
Anthony Franco
12:12
It's not a great approach and there were more ground-balls this year, which I wouldn't say is entirely an injury thing. I don't think he's as good as he was in 2022, even if he'll definitely be better than he was this past season
Johnny Minnesota
12:13
How long until we see Brooks Lee in the majors?
Anthony Franco
12:13
Should start back in St. Paul but anything from May on seems plausible if he's performing well there
Drew
12:13
Would Lane Thomas be a good acquisition for the Twins?
Anthony Franco
12:14
Good fit on paper as a righty-hitting outfielder who mashes with the platoon advantage. Nats valued him more highly than the rest of the league at the deadline though
Paul S
12:14
Do The Twins try and sign Mahle to a 2-3 year gap contract. Meaning it pays him to recover from TJ and then they would have control for another year or two?
Anthony Franco
12:15
Two-year deal in the $20MM range seems reasonable, sure
minnesota twins fan
12:15
would Jesus Aguilar be a good fit for the Twin Cities
if not, what about josh bell
Anthony Franco
12:17
Aguilar isn't an answer at this stage of his career. Bell makes some sense but I expect him to opt in to a $16.5MM salary with Miami
Kepler and Polanco
12:17
It seems like if they don't pick up Kepler, they would have to spend money on a stud LF and shift Wallner and others into the RF role. Polanco seems to maybe even be more on the outs than Kepler. What do you think? Do you see the Twins picking up either of these players options?
Anthony Franco
12:18
They're both easy calls to exercise in my view. They could field trade offers on either player after that but the option prices are below market value for those players, especially Polanco in a terrible year for free agent middle infielders
Brian A
12:18
Given other suitors for Gray since he's the top free agent SP but also the fact that Gray has said money isn't everything, will the Twins have to add a 4th year to sign him? Maybe 3 guaranteed years and a lower player option with escalators? Just playing GM here (assuming Bally Sports money isn't an issue), but 3 years $72m with a 4th year player option with escalators sounds nice.
Anthony Franco
12:19
Three years with a player option is basically four years, since the team has no control over that last season. The 4/72 range is a little below where I'd expect Gray to end up but I think it's a reasonable offer, especially if you take at face value his comments about giving up a little bit of money to find the right fit
12:20
From a pure market value perspective, I'd have him in the $85MM range. In our talks for the Top 50 free agent list, Steve Adams has pounded the table for him as a $100MM player, which is tough for me to get to
Duffy Scliff
12:21
I know there's still an injury concern, but does a full, healthy season playing exceptionally well, earn Royce Lewis an extension? Dude is clearly becoming the face of the Twins.
Anthony Franco
12:22
Depends on his risk tolerance -- the near-$7MM signing bonus as the 1-1 pick means he's negotiating from a position of greater strength than a lot of early-career guys -- but the organization could try to get something done this winter
12:24
He looks fantastic and seems to have the "face of the franchise" intangibles. There's always going to be injury risk. Even if he has a full season in 2024, they'll still have to factor in that he has two ACL tears in his history
I'd rather take that uncertainty on earlier in his career when the price tag would ostensibly still be lower
Tubby
12:25
Should the Twins trade Polanco to make room for Julien, Lewis, and Brooks Lee, or keep him? If they do trade him, how much is he worth?
Anthony Franco
12:26
Doubt they'll shut down offers entirely but I lean towards retaining him. Julien's probably more of a DH or bat-first utility guy than an everyday second baseman. Lee struggled enough in his first crack at Triple-A that he should start back there. Lewis can play third. Keeping Polanco around as infield insurance for another year makes sense
12:27
If Lee forces his way to the majors midseason, there'd still be trade value on Polanco's next option if he has a typical year
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