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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat with Steve Adams: 9/13/24
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Steve Adams
1:22
Good afternoon all! Anthony is off again this Friday so I'll be running this week's Front Office chat again! He should be back next Friday, but you're stuck with me one more week. Sorry :)

Feel free to submit questions ahead of time if you like, and I'll get this going at 3pm CT.
3:00
Happy Friday! Let's get this rolling
STIEB
3:00
Is it just me or is Bowden Francis not getting the attention he deserves? The tone seems to be "What a lucky run of games" opposed to "this is one of the best young pitchers to emerge this year". It hasn't been the whole season, but it's no longer just a good week, either.
Steve Adams
3:02
It's probably due to a few factors. 1) It's only seven starts still 2) He wasn't that great beforehand so the ERA is still mid-3.00s

Most importantly, it just doesn't feel sustainable. Francis has a sub-.100 average on balls in play (.093) during this stretch and has a 3% walk rate. Neither of those is going to hold up.

He's missing a fair number of bats, and it seems all but certain that he'll parlay this into a rotation bid next season, but there's still a fair bit of smoke and mirrors here.

I'm not saying he's going to crash with an 8.00 ERA or anything, but we're still pretty firmly in small sample territory.
Goldschmidt
3:02
He says he wants to continue playing. Will he be able to find a competitive team willing to give him a major role? He seems like a guy who either fits on a team like Chicago White Sox and hopes for a trade or the extremely short side of a platoon at this point in his career.
Steve Adams
3:06
I don't think he'll be limited to a rebuilding club like the White Sox. I imagine the Cards will look into bringing him back, and even if he doesn't return, there'll be contenders looking at him as a viable full time first baseman.

The overall numbers aren't great, but since July 1 he's hitting .276/.314/.487 -- good for a 122 wRC+. It's not vintage Goldschmidt, and his walk rate is way down, but it's infinitely better than what he did early in the season when he looked lost at the dish.

The Astros, Mariners, D-backs (that'd be fun!), Brewers, Pirates, Padres, Giants and Nats are among the teams who could plausibly look at first basemen this winter. White Sox too, sure, but I imagine he'll find a team with a better chance at contending.
Soto
3:06
What team that hasn't been discussed much yet makes the most sense to you? Realistically and an absolutely no chance but just reasonable enough to keep an eye on?
Steve Adams
3:07
So basically a team that on paper totally could/should, but hasn't been discussed, and almost certainly won't? Like, 0-1% type of situation?

Tigers.
3:08
The long-term payroll is squeaky clean, minus the Baez deal. They've got a bunch of interesting young core pieces popping up. They're in contention late this season.

I don't think it's a crazy fit, but I also see virtually no chance it comes to fruition, ha.
Ryan Red-leg
3:08
Good afternoon, Steve.  Thank you for another Friday afternoon chat.   What do you think contacts would look like for Nick Martinez and Jakob Junis next year, assuming they both opt out?  If the Reds were able to resign both of them, their pitching staff would be in great shape for next year. They could then focus on signing some hitters, like Santander or Teoscar Hernandez.
Steve Adams
3:11
Happy to do it!

Anthony wrote about Martinez's looming opt-out in a subscriber piece earlier this week, if you missed it:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/09/nick-martinezs-third-straight-o...

I generally agree with him. I was thinking something like 2/32 or 2/30 -- the Michael Wacha range -- if he's being signed as a starter, but Anthony's mention of something like 3/36 absolutely makes sense as well. Somewhere in the 30-40 range feels about right to me.

Junis got 1/7 coming off a more interesting 2023 than his 2024. (This year's ERA is lower, but he was throwing harder with a lot more K's in '23.) I imagine he'll be a one-year guy again, perhaps in the same range.

Tim and Anthony really liked him for two years last year though for what it's worth. If there's a team that'd go like 2/12 or 2/14, I would hardly be stunned, but one year feels likelier to me.
Cat Herder
3:11
Trey Sweeney looks really good in Tiger blue.  Might be the best, under the radar Deadline addition.  Chances that Baez, assuming he's healthy, is shown the door in Detroit with a buy-out?
Steve Adams
3:14
There's no buyout option. They'd just release him and have to keep paying him.

I think Baez will be there until they simply feel the roster no longer merits his inclusion. You can argue that's already the case, but prior to Sweeney getting called up, they didn't have anyone clamoring for everyday SS at-bats. If they feel like Sweeney can be the SS and they can reliably lean on McKinstry, Ibanez, Kriedler, etc. to handle backup shortstop -- Javy can still field, at least -- then you get to the point where cutting him feels more realistic.

As of right now, I'm pretty sure just releasing Baez would be the biggest dead-money hit to any team in MLB history. I don't think anyone's been cut loose with THIS much (three years, $73MM) left on the contract.
Chief
3:14
What do the Tigers do at shortstop? Baez should be released and Sweeney doesn't look like the answer.
Steve Adams
3:15
Grabbing this since it's related... I think Sweeney looks fine so far. The defense is good. He's not striking out a ton. The OBP is bad, but it's like 70 PAs and he's had some crappy luck on balls in play despite really big hard-contact and exit velocity numbers. Not ready to crown him an everyday SS based on 20 games or whatever, but he's shown well thus far and deserves a longer look next season before the Tigers make another move to address the position.
3:16
If they want to sign a veteran type to push him in ST, maybe start the year on the big league roster, and then fade into a utility role when Sweeney forces the issue, I guess that's defensible. Then again, they could just do that with Baez again. No sense paying a fringe veteran another few million. You're only compounding the Baez mistake at that point, in a way.
Prospects?
3:17
I'm trying to get into prospects but it's hard. Where should I look? It often seems like guys from teams with historical success get ranked and evaluated higher than others then just get pushed under the rug when they fail as "part of the process."
Steve Adams
3:19
I don't think that's true, I think we just remember the big-market prospects more because they draw more coverage in larger media markets. There's countless examples of smaller-market teams seeing their elite prospects bust. Guys like Victor Robles, Dylan Carlson, Jo Adell, Nate Pearson, Alex Kirilloff and Nick Senzel were all top-10 prospects within the past few years.
3:20
As to where you can look, there's free rankings and scouting reports at both FanGraphs and MLB.com. Baseball America is a pay site but their work is great. Ditto ESPN (Kiley McDaniel), The Athletic (Keith Law) and Baseball Prospectus. They're all good resources, but in terms of free and comprehensive stuff, I really like what FanGraphs does. Their org lists are generally super deep, and Eric Longenhagen is great at what he does there.
Tony Taters
3:20
Does Santander get a QO?
Steve Adams
3:21
I'd be shocked if he doesn't
Tyler ONeill
3:21
What kind of deal does my 30-hr season get?  Do I resign with Boston?  They need some right handed bats.
Steve Adams
3:22
He's so up and down in terms of performance and health. Even this year he's going to end up around, what? 110 games? 115?

I think there's three years there, but it might be more in the Jorge Soler/Jeimer Candelario range ($42-45MM) than a more premium AAV. Strikeouts are an obvious concern, too.
Wimply Pimply
3:22
What’s the reliever market like this offseason?  I’m not seeing much to get excited about
Steve Adams
3:24
It's not amazing. Jeff Hoffman is sneaky awesome, though, and I think Clay Holmes could do real well with a change of scenery. Tanner Scott will get tons of interest but I don't love the inconsistent command. AJ Minter was more exciting before the hip injury, but he's really good. Some older guys like Paul Sewald (35 next year), Kirby Yates (38) and David Robertson (40). Carlos Estevez is awesome.
Arizona Pitching
3:24
...it's um.... rough to put it mildly. Are we going to make it past the first round this year? Or are the elite offenses of the postseason going to make it an October to forget for fans?
Steve Adams
3:29
Yeah, it's been a rough month or more for that rotation. Gallen is still great, though, and the bullpen has a lot of good arms. The Puk trade was  one of my favorite pickups (relative to acquisition cost) of the deadline. The D-backs can absolutely crush left-handed pitching, too, so if they match up against anyone with a lot of lefty arms (Phillies), that'd be a good fit for them. Of course, you're not going to get Philadelphia in round 1, since they'll get a bye.

The lineup is really coming together all at once, and I love Gallen and Puk. Sewald's obviously crazy talented but yeah, has had a tough few months.

I doubt the D-backs are going to be any kind of postseason favorite, but anything can happen in the playoffs and they've been getting huge results from Marte, Suarez, Carroll, Walker, Joc, Gurriel, etc. recently.
3:30
A bunch of slug fests a la their 2018 Wild Card game with the Rox would make for fun viewing. I'm more a sucker for great pitchers' duels and the drama they bring, but a postseason fireworks show never hurts!
Generally a Manager
3:30
I’m glad CY got extended, he deserves it. I’m surprised no one has called Jon Daniels though, he built that championship team and has always been a great scout and at improving players. Do you see him getting another job or is he getting the Lunhow treatment?
Steve Adams
3:30
The Rays hired Daniels as a senior advisor barely two months after he was fired. He's still there, as far as I know
Jason
3:31
Who’s the better starter over the next 3 seasons?   Jared Jones, Rhett Lowder, Kumar Rocker
Steve Adams
3:32
I'm about as big a Jared Jones guy as you'll find. I think he's going to be a monster. Not taking anything away from Rocker and Lowder, but I've been bullish on Jones awhile and now we've seen him have success in the majors. He gets my vote, but I like Lowder and Rocker as well, of course.
Guest
3:32
The Nationals have a great need for more starting pitching, but are still smarting after Patrick Corbin and Steven Strasburg's contracts. Jarlin Susana are at least 2 years away, barring injury. Should the Nats break the bank in hope of the next Max Scherzer result, or get two very good pitchers with a chance to develop into aces?
Steve Adams
3:38
I agree they need more starting pitching, but I think it's premature for them to break the bank on a starter this winter (e.g. Fried, Burnes, Snell). Next year is going to be a long-shot year to contend, and all of those guys are over 30. It's one thing if they say "screw it we're going all out to bring 26-year-old Soto back," as his prime will more neatly align with their likely return to prominence.

Adding a mid-range arm on a three- or four-year deal (Pivetta, Severino) makes some sense, and I think they'd be a good candidate to roll the dice on Shane Bieber or Walker Buehler bouncing back as well.

It's tricky. You want to leave innings for Cavalli but also have enough depth to make sure you're set up if one of Gore, Irvin or Parker has an injury. Herz is interesting too, though I'm skeptical he can sustain even this level of command.
3:39
So no, I wouldn't splurge for one super-expensive ace now. I'd shop in the middle tiers, hope to grow a decent core of in-house arms around that arm, and then maybe make a bigger splash next year. Trade market always presents some avenues as well, but I don't think there's going to be a ton of controllable pitching out there unless they do something like acquire and extend Crochet.
Flip Flop
3:39
Why are the Yankees so confused about how to handle Dominguez?
Steve Adams
3:40
Mark and I talked about this on the podcast this week. I'm baffled by their usage of him. Or lack thereof. Verdugo hasn't hit since April. I don't understand the fascination with him. Dominguez did everything he needed to for an earlier call and they kept sticking with Verdugo. If they miss a playoff bye by like one game, that's gonna look rough.
Jason
3:40
Do the Reds find a way to keep France for ‘25?
Steve Adams
3:41
They don't need to "find a way." He's theirs if they want him. He's arb-eligible this winter. He'll be due a raise on a $6.775MM salary. If the Reds are comfortable paying him $8-9MM, he's theirs, but that might be a lot given the glut of infielders they already have.
generally a manager
3:41
I meant as a GM or to lead a team. Not the brightest Steve in the bunch
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