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Trade Rumors Front Office Fantasy Baseball Chat With Brad Johnson
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Brad Johnson
11:57
We'll get started in a few minutes here. For those following along with all the TGFBI chatter on Twitter, I took Fernando Tatis Jr. second overall. Trea Turner was my first choice to fill that iffy 2B position, but he went first.
Michael
12:00
Brad, thanks for doing these.  Now that I have drafted.....how long do I hold slow, out-of -the-gate, performers?
Brad Johnson
12:01
It largely depends on who they are. If, like me, you're a big believer in Oneil Cruz but he starts off hitting .150/.150/.200 in 50 PA, you move on fast. If Kris Bryant does the same, you're waiting until like August or September to quit him.
12:02
Generally, those back end gambles should have short leashes. You move on anytime you perceive a better gamble to be available.
Your established players, you're usually stuck with their slumps.
GBS42
12:02
How much does a player's versatility influence your bidding?  For example, if a player with three-position eligibility is forecast at $12, would you be willing to go to $13 knowing you can shuffle him around to cover for injuries/underperformance?
Brad Johnson
12:03
First, I typically don't approach auction values that way. I'll circle back to this since you're question is about versatility.
Yes, I do pay more for flexibility, but in today's game, you don't have to. The Ben Zobrist types used to be rare. Now, something like half of position players have 2 eligibilities.
12:04
I do still want specific guys like Cronenworth, DJLM, and Taylor. At the same time, their ADPs are quite elevated relative to their projected production.
12:05
That even extends to some guys who used to have a lot of eligibilities like Tommy Edman
All of which is to say: yes, those players are worth more but they're also usually overpriced
12:06
Depth of league matters too. If it's 12-team mixed, you can rest assured that a good player is available on the wire. As you get deeper, building in that redundancy becomes more important.
12:07
There aren't a ton of questions in the queue, so I'll circle back and also talk about how I value players in an auction.
12:08
Typically, it's good to have some sense of general values. I'll usually use the FanGraphs auction tool with THE BATX projections. https://www.fangraphs.com/auctiontool.aspx
12:09
Custom valuations are "better" in theory. However, I don't value specificity. From experience, if you treat values as firm and accurate, you're doing yourself a disservice.
12:12
Think of it like this, if we were playing a 2021 league using those players actual stats, then we can have exact and accurate valuations. But projections are inherently imprecise. They have all kinds of blind spots.
So if it says Chris Taylor is a $12 player, it really means around 90% of expected outcomes are from negative $6 to $26 or so. It's good to have that mean/median idea of $12 for planning purposes, but we also need to acknowledge the enormous range of possibilities.
12:13
Beyond that, it's important to adjust to your specific league's context. If you have Tatis penciled in for $40 and he goes for $62, that's a signal you'll need to overinvest to get a Top 10 talent.
12:14
Your instinct might be to hold out for values, but those tend to materialize way too late. You could get Gleyber Torres for $1 instead of $6, but who cares? Especially since it tends to be hard to use your whole budget when you play for values.
Bones
12:14
I can keep 2 of these 3. Pete Alonso, Paul Goldschmidt or Matt Olson. Which 2 do you like best for this year?
Brad Johnson
12:15
That's a nice batch of 1B. The market prefers Olson, but I have them ranked 3. Alonso, 4. Goldy, 5. Olson among 1B.
12:17
You're not going wrong with any of them. I will note Goldy tends to bolster AVG while Olson/Alonso are neutral in that category but have more HR.
So be mindful of which categories might need a little extra nudge based on your other keepers.
No Whammies!
12:18
H2H, points league, can keep one of theses 3 OFs: Giancarlo Stanton. Chrisitan Yelich or Eloy Jimenez...
Brad Johnson
12:18
I need to put some thought into this one. My reflexive answer is "not Yelich."
12:20
It's probably another case of optimizing for need, with the caveat that Jimenez probably has some future value too depending on your keeper rules.
12:21
Jimenez has a low average launch angle and high HR/FB ratio like Yelich, but his is a more classic masher profile.
12:22
Yelich is tricky to project because it does seem like health/age have worked against him since 2020. He could rebound in much the way Votto has a couple times.
12:23
Or keep declining. Consider him maximally volatile.
12:24
Whereas Stanton is pretty steady and probably still has some 40-50 HR campaigns ahead
My instinct is to take Jimenez unless there's no opportunity to keep him beyond 2022.
Duck Mallard
12:24
My league is trying to decide whether to postpone our draft to right before new Opening Day, whenever it is, or to draft the last weekend before regular Opening Day as usual (redraft, 5x5 roto with  LF, CF, RF). What would you do? If you would say to proceed as normal, are there any free agents you would be cautious about drafting due to their free agent status?
Brad Johnson
12:25
Personally, I'm advising my leagues to wait for a CBA to be reached. Then we'll still have a month to get a draft together. Folks will need to be flexible about clearing their schedules or bringing in a surrogate.
12:26
My opinion is that we've tried a "draft as normal" approach with COVID. While I won a few leagues that way (including Tout Wars), I'm not eager to do it again so soon.
Maybe in a decade.
12:28
And yes, I'm wary of some free agents if drafting now. Probably none more than Correa, Story, and Bryant. Venue is important for all 3. But they're all appropriately discounted by NFBC ADP so don't be too tentative,
12:29
Seiya Suzuki, Michael Conforto, and Kyle Schwarber are a couple other big names who could wind up in a weird situation.
12:30
And of course, pitchers are scary when they land in the AL East.
Feury
12:30
H2H points league: better as a late round keeper: Lane Thomas or Ke'Bryan Hayes?
Brad Johnson
12:31
Gimme Hayes. I do think Thomas will get plenty of opportunities, but he's also someone I'd describe as an ideal fourth outfielder. Hayes has pedigree and upside to find 5-category output
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