JotCast | Trade Rumors Front Office Chat | 10/29/2020

Trade Rumors Front Office Chat

powered by

Steve Adams

11:18

Greetings! A quick note in advance that I accidentally had Tim send out a link to next week's chat this morning, which is why some of you may have seen the "October 29" start date on this chat if you submitted a question already.

Silly mistake on my part, but I'll still be here taking questions this afternoon at 2pm CT. Sorry about the mix-up. Talk to everyone then -- looking forward to it!

2:03

Hey there! Sorry again for any confusion this morning. Hopefully that didn't screw anyone up too much ha

Let's get underway

Illini Bill

2:03

How much would it cost my White Sox to pry from the. Mets either Conforto (only one year of control) or Nimmo (2 years of control)?

Steve Adams

2:04

I don't think the two sides align that well in that type of trade. Chicago would surely be interested in both -- they have a glaring hole in right field and Nomar Mazara is an easy non-tender -- but the Mets have a new owner who is going to come to the org in full win-now mode.

2:05

The White Sox would have to send MLB help, perhaps pitching, to the Mets in order to make a deal work, and I don't think the arms the Mets would ask for would be anything the White Sox would consider.

I think the White Sox will look to free agency to address the hole in the outfield. They're my pick for George Springer.

Stove

2:06

If the yanks deem LeMahieu too pricy to resign, do you think a reunion with Gregorius is a legitimate possibility?

Steve Adams

2:06

This is a well-timed question considering Didi just went on WFAN a couple hours ago and said he "doesn't think they would want me back"

"They" being the Yankees

2:07

They had to kind of force that out of him a bit. He sidestepped some Yankees reunion chatter early in the interview. But Didi made it sound like he knew the writing was on the wall, and my read was that he's not expecting a return tour.

2:08

I'd recommend checking out the audio link in that interview -- it's about 15-18 minutes with Didi -- but my expectation is he lands elsewhere.

QO

2:08

Is there anyone you think might get a qualifying offer that would surprise people?

Steve Adams

2:11

It seems as though few journalists and pundits think Kevin Gausman is worthy of the QO, but I think it's an easy offer. The Giants were willing to give him half this year's QO value (well, like 48% of it if you want to be technical) following a lost year in which he got released.

He absolutely shoved for them, his stuff looked as good or better than ever. He's relatively young, pretty durable, and they badly need innings. Worst-case scenario is getting a solid mid-rotation arm on a one-year deal that might be a slight overpay in terms of AAV but would be totally justifiable if he maintained his 2020 success.

I also think the Yankees should make the offer to Tanaka.

Matt

2:11

Is 2yrs/$14MM realistic for Aaron Loup?

Steve Adams

2:12

I think that's steep. If he gets multiple years I expect it'd top out around $5MM annually, and even that is a lot. Justin Wilson had a much longer track record when he got 2/10 from the Mets a couple years ago.

I expect Loup to get a big league deal but probably just for a year. I could see 2/8, I guess.

BDS

2:13

How long can MLB wait to announce DH yes or no for NL next year? I know MLB has to get buy-in from players but can't see why players would object if rosters at 26. Certainly hurts market for certain players with uncertainty. When do you think might be decision?

Steve Adams

2:15

I agree that this is something they need to get sorted out one way or another, ideally in the next week or so. It's going to impact teams' decisions on club options. It's going to impact free-agent markets -- Nelson Cruz, Marcell Ozuna -- it should be a hot-button, pressing issue for both sides.

Perhaps hey don't want to announce it during the World Series, because they prefer to keep all focus on that, but this can't drag on.

2:16

They also need to make a hard determination one way or another. It can't be "No universal DH" next week and then in January they say "Oops, kidding, now we reached an agreement." Teams are going to plan their roster construction around this. They need to make a call and stick to it.

Kevin

2:16

Do you think Kevin Gausman would accept a qualifying offer?

Steve Adams

2:18

I believe that his camp would strongly consider it, admittedly. I am of the mindset that he should reject and hit the market. For me, he's the No. 2 SP out there -- maybe the No. 3. It's easy to fall in love with the velo and the increased whiff rate, look at his prior prospect pedigree and durability and think this is a plausible No.2 starter. There's some downside, but outside of 2019 he's never really been anything worse than a useful mid-rotation arm.

2:19

He is interesting though, and there's a wide variety of opinions on the second tier of the market. In speaking with agency and team-side people throughout the industry, it's increasingly clear that while Bauer is the obvious No.1 starter out there, a consensus on the ordering of Gausman, Stroman, Odorizzi, Tanaka and that next group really is not there.

Alex A

2:19

which SP will I pursue in the off season given my budgetary limitations?

Steve Adams

2:20

Assuming that is Alex Anthopoulos (Braves GM)

Well, not that it's actually him. But, you know.

2:21

I expect the Braves to be in on what should be a large group of one-year starters -- both veterans who are advancing in years and rebound candidates. At present we have Robbie Ray going to them, but I could easily see them just looking for steadier innings and plugging someone like JA Happ in behind what should be a strong top three (Soroka, Fried, Anderson).

I don't expect them to go beyond two years for a starter.

2:22

Only exception to that would be if AA, who has brought in "his" guys previously, wants to bring Stroman in on the four-year deal we believe he can still land -- lost 2020 season notwithstanding.

(That is a very scattered answer, ha, sorry)

GBS42

2:23

For the last several years - at least - the AL playoff series have started one day after the regular season, while the NL has started two days after. I know the staggered is related to TV schedules and not wanting too many games in a day when possible, but it seems this would give the AL pennant winner an advantage come World Series time since the AL team is more likely to have a longer rest period before the WS. It happened this season, with both LCS going the distance, giving TB two days off before the WS, while LA just had one. It seems alternating the league that plays first would be a better solution.

Steve Adams

2:24

I have not noticed this myself, but I agree that the best course of action would be to either alternate years or just set each league's series to start on the same date. That would've been tough with this year's expanded field, I suppose, which lends more credence to the alternate scenario if they're going to stick with expanded format in the future.

Griffin

2:25

What do you make of the rumor the rakuten eagles will pay record nippon league money for Tanaka

Steve Adams

2:26

I have not seen that! Is this a real thing?

Even if it is, Tanaka should trounce record NPB money here in the US. I don't know what the NPB record is, but I remember Kris Johnson's three-year deal with the Carp back in 2015 or 2016, which maxed out at $15MM (but was like $9-10MM guaranteed) was a record at the time.

I think Tanaka could get three years at $12MM+ in the US if he wants or maybe two years at a higher AAV from the Yankees.

Or, again, as I said earlier in this chat -- I think they should make him a QO, which would give him 1/19 if he wants to go that route.

Cards Fan

2:27

Do you think there’s a legitimate chance Yadi leaves St. Louis?

Steve Adams

2:29

I do. It would take the Cards holding firm at one year and refusing to budge from that, but I can see them drawing the hard line. We'd been kicking around a scenario that will make Cards fans puke, where Molina gets two years from the Yankees, which we liked for fun but didn't feel great about predicting in our Top 50.

This week, though, Derrick Goold from the Post-Dispatch suggested that very scenario, which lends some credence to it.

If the Yankees are going to move on from Gary Sanchez -- which seems possible based on end-of-year comments -- what better way to flip the narrative? The gripes about Sanchez are about constant K's and poor defense. Molina's whole game is built around putting the ball in play and providing elite defense (even if his reputation outstretches his actual skill set at this point)

I think the Cardinals are likeliest still, but I can legitimately see Molina departing, yes.

2:30

Mariners claimed RHP Domingo Tapia off waivers from the Red Sox.

Load More Messages

Connecting…

Register

Message History

On Off

On Off

On Off

Your current subscriptions

None

Register now to continue managing your subscriptions

E-mail Address	Chat Owner	Status	Remove

Enter your email address to be notified when Steve Adams hosts a chat