JotCast | Trade Rumors Front Office Chat | 9/10/2020

Trade Rumors Front Office Chat

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Steve Adams

2:06

Greetings all!

Sorry to be a few minutes late here

I'm clearly still getting back to speed after a mini-vacation/five-day weekend in which I went to the exotic destination that is ... my back yard to do a bunch of landscape work! Exciting times. Let's get this chat going

Griffin

2:07

Does James Paxton take a one year prove it deal or take as much as he can get?

Steve Adams

2:08

I'm not really sure those are different things at this point. Maybe someone would offer him two years, I guess, but between the revenue losses for all 30 clubs, the February back surgery and now the flexor strain, it's hard to see him getting a multi-year offer

2:09

A one-year deal makes sense for him anyway. He already has about $30MM in career earnings, so he can afford to gamble on himself a bit.

Rick M

2:09

Do you agree with the Giants approach this year, of rolling out the over-30 band of Ball players? Sure they’ll make the playoffs, but what about developing the younger players, like Duggar, Shaw, etc.

Steve Adams

2:10

If the current front office thought Shaw and/or Duggar had a legitimate chance of developing into everyday big leaguers, I think they'd have been given every opportunity to prove it.

2:11

Shaw wasn't even in their player pool to begin the season -- that's a pretty damning indictment

Matt Chapman

2:11

Have I turned into Kevin Pillar this year ( Mr. Swing at Everything)? 8 walks versus 54 strikeouts. Last year my ratio was only 2 to 1 but now it’s practically 7 to 1 ?

Steve Adams

2:15

It's a little odd to see his BB% cut in half -- 10.9% to 5.3%. His K's are way up, too (21.9% vs. 35.5%), but it's also not a major sample.

Not saying it shouldn't be concerning -- it is -- but I don't think you can discount things like a player pressing when he's in a slump and those around him aren't performing as well or a player trying something new in an already weird season. Chapman's exit velo and hard-hit rates are both way up, so perhaps he's selling out for more power.

I haven't watched him much this year and am not a scout in the first place, but I'd be more concerned if this carried over into the first two months of next year than I am when looking at 150 PAs in a bizarro season

Kevin Gausman

2:17

My moving bills are too high. Entering free agency this winter, what duration and value of contract can I expect this winter?

Steve Adams

2:21

He's been really good. In a normal year I'd be at three or four years for him in free agency -- I don't fully know what to expect with all the revenue losses. No one does.

Gausman has been inconsistent but also fairly durable and has really only had one bad all-around season (2019), which he's now indicating is the outlier not the new norm.

Giants should QO him and see if he bites. If not, I think that'll be an indication that his camp believes three-plus years at a quality AAV ($13MM+) is out there even in spite of the economic uncertainty.

Braves 20

2:21

Should the Braves cut their loses with Milone?

Steve Adams

2:22

I was pretty amazed that they gave up anything -- even a couple PTBNLs -- to get him in the first place. I don't think he should have a long leash, but I didn't really get the acquisition in the first place.

Ted

2:23

Cardinals are starting an outfield batting .183, .224 and .130 in the first game today. They have traded away Piscotty, Grichuk and Pham (I'm sure there are others that don't come to mind right now), and let Ozuna walk. No wonder they are one game above.500. Doesn't Mozeliak, one of the highest paid baseball executives armed with the 8th highest payroll, need to deliver a better product for the great St. Louis fans?

Steve Adams

2:28

I don't think that moving Grichuk was any kind of notable loss, but I get the point, yeah. Their outfield woes have been rather remarkable, and it's curious to me that they just up and traded Pham when he was controllable and performing reasonably well. Maybe they viewed that as selling high on someone they'd not expected to contribute, but it was a head-scratcher then and looks worse now. The Piscotty trade was pretty understandable given his family circumstances at the time, and I think both orgs deserve some credit for that one.

Anyhow, yes they should be focused on putting out a better product, but I don't think there's a good way to placate fans here. They're not cutting Fowler -- who was signed after much criticism about letting Heyward go -- and if they'd signed a veteran OF that would've blocked Carlson, fans would've also been incensed.

2:29

The Cards have a generally strong track record of overall performance and multiple World Series wins within the past decade. I'm not saying anyone should be thrilled with mediocrity, but to act like the front office just hasn't delivered anything for the fans to cheer about is also not really an accurate portrayal of things. They won 91 games last year.

GangGreen23

2:30

Do the A’s have an Ace to pitch a pivotal Playoff game? They’ve come up short their past few Playoff appearances because of the lack of a Legit number 1 starter.

Steve Adams

2:32

In a one-game, do-or-die setting I'd go Luzardo for five then turn things over to the 'pen with Petit, Soria and Hendriks getting as much of the workload as possible (multiple innings from Hendriks if needed)

GBS42

2:33

Imagine you're the Brewers yesterday after your 19-0 win. Clearly you assume you're going to have the largest margin of victory that day, right? And then along comes the team that used to play in your city, and they win, 29-9. As Charlie Brown would say, "Good grief!!"

Steve Adams

2:34

Ha -- I think the Brewers will still happily take the 19-0 win, but yes, there can't be many (any?) prior occasions of a team winning by 19 and still not having the largest margin of victory on that given day.

...or in that given season, haha.

Griffin

2:34

Do you think Cashman’s comments about how Stroman would be in their bullpen last postseason hurt the yankees chances of signing him?

Steve Adams

2:36

If anything I think it just signifies that the Yankees won't want to sign him. They clearly don't think of him as a pitcher who should be on a staff's top three starters, so why would they pay him when other clubs will absolutely value him that way?

Your name here

2:36

Thoughts on Deivi Garcia, real deal or smoke and mirrors?

Steve Adams

2:39

I think there's room for it to be both. He's plenty talented and has the stuff -- curve in particular -- to be a high-impact starter. He's also not going to average one walk per nine innings over the course of his career, and we've only seen him turn a lineup over for a third time once or twice.

2:40

I think he's a good starter if he holds up, but the list of 5'9", 170-pound starters who have had long and fruitful careers isn't a long one. Not saying he can't be an exception, but I understand scouts' concerns about the body type, too.

PED Testing

2:40

When I see Older players putting up monster stats this year, I’m wondering if PED Testing has been cancelled or post-poned? There are several players that I am skeptical of, which I will be kind and not name, that are producing like never before. No prior track record of success, to this extent.

Steve Adams

2:43

We've seen multiple PED suspensions, so no, it hasn't been canceled. There are tons of weird outliers for guys hitting out of their minds for 125 to 200 PAs in a season in the past. Jeremy Hazelbaker, Chris Shelton and dozens of others have prompted all kinds of early-season hype only to turn right back into the dudes they've always been. Hell, two years ago crafting all kinds of crazy narratives when Markakis homered like 8 times in his first 125 plate appearances ... and then he turned right back into Nick Markakis for the next 550. It happens. I think it's more noticeable in a shortened season like this when we're already juxtaposing early-season results with MVP voting, playoff odds, etc.

Marc

2:44

Hey Steve! Enjoying the extra articles and chats... Ok.. I used to think there was no player that was uncoachable, but that was before the last couple of seasons watching Javy Baez. After a stellar season when he came in second in the NL MVP race, he has regressed to the point now where he may be worse than his rookie year. He appears to lack any discipline at the plate and is complaining about no in-game video. Is this season just a blip in the big picture or is it going to hurt his value in his FA negotiations?

Steve Adams

2:45

Baez has never had plate discipline. What little he had isn't even down in 2020. He's actually swinging less overall and chasing out of the zone at a vastly lower clip -- down a full 6%. He's just making less contact overall.

2:46

He's far from the only player to bemoan the lack of video, and I imagine many others who are struggling are thinking the same thing without voicing it.

I don't expect Baez to get to free agency anyway -- I think some kind of long-term deal will come together -- but if he does make it to the open market, this year won't mean much so long as he bounces back in 2021.

Chief

2:47

For a 162 game season, the Royals would be on pace for 103 losses, which would be their third year in a row with more than 100 losses. That's even after winning two straight. Their young pitchers that are supposed to represent a bright future are getting hit hard (Singer 5.58 ERA, Bubic 4.89, Zuber 4.76). Salvy has been very good when not on the IL and the Olivares trade looks like it might be a good one, but otherwise there is not much talent in the field. Mondesi has been horrible and Merrifield's stats are way down. Franco has a .2 WAR through 27% of a normal season. A bright spot has been the bullpen, a huge improvement over last year. I understand Witt might be a future star and Lacy as well, but I don't see much to look forward to in KC. What is your take?

Steve Adams

2:50

A lot of those young arms are skipping the upper minors entirely. Bubic jumped up right from Class-A Advanced. Singer never pitched in Triple-A. Zuber only had 26 IP in Double-A (and isn't as highly regarded as Singer, Bubic, Kowar, Lynch). I wouldn't be horribly discouraged by the pitchers' struggles.

2:51

Merrifield's numbers are down, but he's striking out less than ever, hitting for power, still running and getting some rotten luck on balls in play. The exit velo and hard-hit rates are down, but he'll be fine long term.

I think the Royals are still the furthest team from contending in the AL Central, though, and their affinity for some of these older guys -- Harvey, Kennedy, Duda in the past, etc. -- is certainly perplexing.

Am I still sick or what?

2:52

Any news on what’s going on with Caleb Smith? Seems like he’s been on that COVID IL forever.

Steve Adams

2:55

I haven't seen what's happening with him, no, but not everyone recovers from the virus as quickly as cynics indicate. (Not saying that's you, to be clear, just pushing back against the "fine in a couple weeks" trope)

Yoan Moncada and Daz Cameron both spoke about this at length recently. Eduardo Rodriguez isn't even playing this year because of it.

In Smith's case, the fact that he was traded would seemingly indicates there isn't a major concern regarding his health, but the D-backs also knew they weren't going to contend this year anyhow. If you're Arizona, why rush him back when the results don't matter much at this point? There's every reason to be cautious.

Your name here

2:55

Do you think there will be a playoff bubble?

Steve Adams

2:57

I do -- USA Today had some new updates on it today that'll probably be on the site this afternoon. There are still some hurdles to clear, including how to allow players' families to enter the bubble, but they're working toward it and I expect it to come together in the coming weeks.

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