JotCast | Trade Rumors Front Office Chat

Trade Rumors Front Office Chat

Anthony Franco

2:00

Hey everyone! Hope you all had a good week

2:01

Looking forward to another one of these, lets' get into it

john whelan

2:01

Spotrac and Roster Resource both list the Red Sox as being over the Luxury Tax threshhold.l I asked Alex Speier of the Boston Globe and he claims that both sights have miscalculated. Any comment?

Anthony Franco

2:02

Yeah, I'd just assume they're very narrowly under the threshold

2:03

The payroll sites have to rely on some estimates and assumptions, particularly with regards to luxury tax calculations because those include player benefits that aren't usually specifically reported

2:04

That's usually not a big deal, since they'll involve rounding errors of a million or two. But in cases where a team's scraping the tax threshold but determined not to exceed it, that obviously comes into play a bit more

2:05

Speier's one of the better, more connected beat reporters around the league though. I'm sure he's been in contact with members of the front office to gauge more specifically where they're at

2:06

And I think we can reason backwards for teams that clearly wanted to limbo below the threshold (Boston, Yankees, Houston, Philly) that they succeeded as narrowly as possible. Otherwise, they wouldn't have made some of the more marginal moves that they did

Tigers win pennant in ‘22

2:07

Anthony, from a “I have to prep my AL Roto team for ‘22 perspective,” who do you think are high probabilities for signings of NL players by AL teams in the off-season? Who should I target for pickup NOW? And, thanks for all the great insights this year.

Anthony Franco

2:08

Hmm, it's tough to peg specific players since anybody good enough to own in a fantasy league should have enough suitors to plausibly land in either league

2:09

I'd basically go through the list of top impending free agents from NL teams (Seager, Story, Gausman, Scherzer etc.) and just target those guys, since they'll be good enough to have plenty of teams involved

2:10

Everyone could use more starting pitching help. The Yankees and Tigers look likely to be in on that top group of shortstops, so they could very easily land in the AL

2:11

And then I'd look through the rosters of bad NL teams that could be willing to take a step back next year and trade away good players (D-Backs with Ketel Marte and Merrill Kelly, Cubs with Willson Contreras or Kyle Hendricks) in case any of those guys get flipped to the AL

Kevin

2:11

With the Orioles promising lineup and forthcoming prospects, do you believe they will be players in free agency this season? They haven’t signed a big FA since Nelson Cruz (and that was a very short deal).

Anthony Franco

2:12

I think they'll do more than they have (almost impossible to do less) but would still be surprised if they're playing at the top of the market

2:13

Last offseason, the Tigers signed Robbie Grossman, Jonathan Schoop, Julio Teheran, José Urena, Nomar Mazara, Derek Holland and Wilson Ramos to major league deals

2:14

Nobody in there is great, they're not super costly, but a couple (Schoop and Grossman primarily) turned out to be pretty good and will be around when they expect to be more competitive next year

I'd expect something in that realm for the Orioles, but I don't think they'll be in on Gausman or Robbie Ray

KOB

2:14

Do the Nats go for any FAs this offseason? Lineup looks decent, but pitching is not good. They need a lot of help there. Any chance Max comes back after his stint in LA?

Anthony Franco

2:15

I think they'll be fairly aggressive with an eye towards 2023. I've said a couple times I love them as a fit for Glasnow if the Rays are looking to move him while he rehabs from Tommy John next season to cut payroll, I could see them in on a Steven Matz type

2:17

And I think that extends to the position player side a bit too. They need a shortstop at some time over the next year or two, and Yadiel Hernández is just a stopgap in a corner spot. So maybe they jump in on a Jorge Soler or someone in that range, just to lock in a little bit of certainty over the next couple years

I'd be surprised if they land a Scherzer type, but I think they'll target a couple average or better players and try to turn the page pretty quickly on this season. They're not about to rebuild

KOB

2:17

Will the Nats be able to lock in Soto on a long term deal? The way he’s going a deal of $500M over 14-15 years looks to be an underpay.

Anthony Franco

2:19

Because they can't rebuild while this guy's around. I'd be surprised if they can extend him for the reasons you say. A lot can happen in three years obviously, but Soto's trending towards landing the largest free agent deal ever

2:20

And if you're not going to trade him this offseason -- and, to be clear, they absolutely shouldn't -- then you have to move quickly to put some better players around him soon

James Click

2:20

What ace or number 1 starters might be available this winter? Doesn't feel like there are a lot of these type pitchers anymore and the few that are out there no one wants to give up. Is JV worth the QO even coming of TJ?

Anthony Franco

2:21

I think the Astros are a big enough spender they'll probably QO Verlander. It could flop, obviously, since he hasn't pitched in basically two years. But if he's back to 2019 Verlander -- which isn't out of the question -- then he's an ace again and well worth 1/$19-20MM

2:23

As for elite starters who'll be available this winter: Scherzer's a free agent, Robbie Ray and Kevin Gausman don't have the "ace" track record or consistency, but they've been at that level this season (Ray especially)

2:24

That's it, in my opinion. The teams that are bad enough to sell don't really have much high-end starting pitching. Germán Márquez probably qualifies, but the Rockies don't seem like they want to go down that path

sgrossman

2:24

The Nats picked up minor league pitcher Josh Rogers this summer when the lowly Orioles couldn't find a space for him in their minor league system. He pitched briefly in the minors for the Nats and then has made several excellent starts in the majors. How often do teams find major league talent among other team's minor-league cast-offs? Based on past examples, how likely is it that Rogers' short-term showing leads to a successful major league career?

Anthony Franco

2:27

There are definitely some good players that come from other teams who don't realize it. It's not common for reasons you'd expect, but guys like Max Muncy, Chris Taylor and Teoscar Hernández jump out as guys who got away from their old clubs

2:29

We cover a lot of minor league deals on the site that invariably get comments like "who cares, more dumpster diving, etc." And while most of those don't pan out, every so often you sign Max Muncy. And even if you don't get an MVP candidate, you can find guys like the Cubs have (Frank Schwindel, Patrick Wisdom) who look like useful big leaguers for a while

2:31

I don't actually think that's the case for Rogers specifically, although there's little reason for the Nats not to give him the chance to prove me wrong. He doesn't throw hard and isn't missing many bats. He's mostly benefitting from opposing hitters having a .211 batting average on balls in play against him. That'll come up in time, and he'll look worse as batted ball start to find the outfield grass more often

2:32

But he's a good strike-thrower who can be optioned for a couple years. I think he'll settle in as a useful fifth/sixth starter who can come up when a regular starter gets injured and give you four or five competitive innings

dmitry

2:32

What happens to Britton? Can the Yanks cut him/eat the money to open an extra 40 spot for prospects or do they need to keep him on the roster all through the offseason??

Anthony Franco

2:32

They can release him and eat the money, yeah

2:33

If he's out for the season, then that's probably what they'll do. But they were vague on the initial timeline, and if he's only expected to miss through mid-July or something, it's probably better to carry him on the 40-man all winter (even if it means losing an extra guy in the Rule 5 draft) and throwing him on the 60-day IL once the season starts

2:34

Britton was terrible this year, but he was great as recently as last season. It's plausible his elbow just never felt right this season and contributed to his struggles, and that he could be awesome once he's back to 100%

Guest

2:34

If Braves return current roster including Freddie and Acuna, and AA really bolsters the bullpen, aren’t they the team to beat in 2022 NL East?

Anthony Franco

2:35

Yeah, I think that's fair. I expect the Mets and Phils to add this winter, the Marlins should be vaguely competitive. But Atlanta's been the best team in that division for a while, and I don't see a reason to move off that

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