JotCast | Trade Rumors Front Office Chat

Trade Rumors Front Office Chat

Anthony Franco

1:59

Hey everyone, looking forward to another Friday chat! Hope you all had a good week

Curtis G

1:59

Do you see JD Martinez opting out of his last year with the Sox this off season?

Anthony Franco

2:00

I would if I were him, yeah

2:01

He's been one of the better hitters in baseball this year, and while he's not back to his peak level, last year looks like an anomaly

2:02

His option next year is a little over $19MM, he just turned 34 and has a .286/.349/.517 line this year and has a 128 wRC+ or better in seven of the last eight seasons

2:03

I think he could/should get a multi-year deal this winter at right around that $19MM AAV

2:04

I also don't see a ton of downside to opting out. If he does, the Red Sox probably offer him a qualifying offer -- which would be for one year and about $19MM, just as he turned down. Take a week to allow Boras to gauge the market, and if there's not as much interest as expected, he could accept the QO and be basically no worse for wear

2:05

But I do think there'll be interest, particularly if some NL teams anticipate the addition of a universal DH in the next CBA

Adam

2:05

What pitchers should/could the Twins sign?

Anthony Franco

2:05

So here's the list of all the impending free agents, for reference

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/2021-22-mlb-free-agents.html

2:06

It's tough to pin down specific names for specific teams, since we can't know from the outside whether certain players would have interest in certain destinations

2:07

The Twins should be in on Scherzer IMO, but he reportedly preferred to leverage his no-trade rights to land on the West Coast this summer, so he might just not want to go to Minnesota

2:08

But more generally, I think they need at least two mid-rotation or better starters to have a real shot at contending next year, particularly with Maeda's surgery knocking him out for at least the first half

2:09

They have the payroll flexibility to be in on the top guys -- Gausman, Ray, Stroman, etc -- and I think they should make a run at one of them and at least a middle-tier type like Alex Wood or Drew Smyly

2:10

I buy Ober as a mid-rotation guy, and Joe Ryan's interesting but otherwise, it's hard to count on anyone they've got in-house next year

Levi

2:10

With their surplus of starting pitching, do you see the Brewers trading one of either Lauer or Houser this offseason? Packaging one of those with Hader would bring back a huge haul.

Anthony Franco

2:12

I don't think there'd be enough interest in Lauer to really make it worthwhile. He's a nice player, but the peripherals are more average across the board and the 3.18 ERA looks like an outlier to me. I think he's more the low-mid 4.00's guy he was in San Diego, and I don't expect anyone would part with a top 100 prospect for him alone

2:13

Obviously, adding Hader would make that a different story, but I think just trading Hader alone would bring back a huge haul, so I don't see a huge need to do the package deal thing

2:14

Houser's more interesting to me because he has the huge grounder rate and has generally been better over the course of his career than Lauer has. I could see a case they listen on him -- particularly if they want Aaron Ashby to be a more traditional starter next year.

2:15

But there's no urgency to move him or anything. He'll still be cheap, the team wants to win now, and pitching depth can dwindle pretty quickly because of injuries, as the Padres showed this year

Jed

2:15

Means for Bohm and a top 30 prospect....who says no?

Anthony Franco

2:16

I assume you mean a top 30 prospect in the Phillies' system, as opposed to a top 30 prospect in all of baseball

2:17

I wouldn't have much interest in a Means-Bohm framework if I were the O's. Bohm's defensive metrics are bad, echoing the idea that he probably winds up at first base that some scouts seemed to think while he was a prospect

2:18

And in that case, you really need to be confident he's a middle-of-the-order bat if you're moving your best pitcher for him. And with Bohm, I don't think that's certain enough

He hits the ball really hard, but he also hits on the ground a ton and his huge numbers last year were BABIP-inflated

2:19

That's not to say I'm burying his career or anything, but he still has a long way to go in his development to be an above-average regular

T-Mobile

2:20

What do you see the M's doing in the off season? It would be hard to squeeze in an outfielder, and if White comes back to first base, hard to fit in an infielder too. That leaves pitching. Will they go for a true ace? Who could they acquire via trade? Or if the free agent market they way they need to go?

Anthony Franco

2:21

I think they'll add one key position player. I agree it's hard to pin down a specific position of need, but there's enough uncertainty at a few different spots (first, second, left, center) that I'd want a solid multi-positional type who can bounce around depending on the development/health (or lack thereof) from White, Kelenic, Lewis etc. next year

2:22

I actually think Chris Taylor makes a ton of sense there, but shelling out big money for him in free agency might be a tough look for a front office that traded him away for nothing a few years ago

2:23

On the pitching side, I'd decline the options on Kikuchi. (If he comes back for $13MM on his player option, that's fine, but I see no reason to lock in a pricey four-year deal at this point).

2:25

I think they'll then be in on mid-rotation or better starters. DeSclafani or Matz make some sense. I wonder if they could also be a dark horse on Verlander given their payroll space

2:26

They're not getting all those guys obviously, but I expect two significant upgrades this winter

M's fan

2:26

Given some of the definite negative stats (such as BA, strikeout rate, etc) do you think it would prudent for the Mariners to bring 34-year-old Kyle Seager back? I read the lengthy piece on MLB rumors, but would be interested to know if, in your opinion, it would be wise to spend the money on a team leader who provides both power and leadership or if you think it's better to move on and set sights on a more reliable free agent infielder like Correa or Story? As you know, the M's brought in Adrian Beltre as the guy to make third base a strength of the team and the rest is history. Clearly, Beltre is a HOF guy, but not when he was a Mariner.

Anthony Franco

2:28

Personally, I'd let Seager go. I think Toro could be similarly valuable (albeit in a completely different way) from an on-field perspective, and all things being equal, I think Seattle would prefer to add some more high-OBP guys to the lineup

2:30

There's a lot Seager brings off the field that makes that a harder call, as you mentioned, but I think they can reallocate that $18MM in a more impactful way this offseason

Opinion, Please

2:30

MLB starts the season on time in 2022?

Anthony Franco

2:30

I still think they will, yes

Nathan

2:30

It's looking like a painful winter of good-byes is in store for A's fans. Assuming Bassitt makes it back to the mound this year to assuage fears, which teams would be most interested in him and/or Manaea?

Anthony Franco

2:31

Essentially any team that has some payroll space and a desire to contend next year should be in on those guys, since they'd upgrade every rotation in baseball

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