JotCast | Trade Rumors Front Office Chat

Trade Rumors Front Office Chat

Anthony Franco

2:00

Hey everyone, happy Friday!

2:01

Excited for my first post-deadline chat, let's get into it

Tony

2:01

What kind of contract do you expect Semien to sign this off-season?

Anthony Franco

2:02

Haven't really had a chance to look too closely at the upcoming free agent class since we've been so deadline focused, so I might have a better answer for this kind of question a month from now.

That caveat aside: my instinct is to say something like 5/$110MM+

2:03

Obviously has the younger shortstops to contend with and won't match those guys in length, since he'll be 31 next month

2:04

But outside of a terrible first month last year, he's basically been elite since the start of 2019, so I think he could/should land a nine figures.

Ted

2:04

Do you think Cincy can take the second wild card spot in the NL? Playing well right now and an advantageous schedule coming up. Think about where they might be had they kept their relief pitchers last winter.

Anthony Franco

2:05

Obviously not impossible but I still consider it unlikely. San Diego's still up 3.5 and they're a more talented team IMO

2:06

FanGraphs has the Reds at 26% to make the playoffs. I'd probably peg them a little lower than that personally

Corky

2:06

So many Yankee hitters fall into the same rut; take two fast balls right down the middle before waving at a pitcher’s pitch far out of the zone, often with RISP. Stanton, Judge, Torres, Sanchez, Frazier, Voit, Gardner most frequently, LeMahieu and Urshela occasionally. Good athletes should be able to adjust their approach, but they never seem to. Are the hitting coaches doing their jobs? AB video has to be very telling.

Anthony Franco

2:07

So obviously, I don't watch the Yankees as often as their fans do and I'm cognizant that this sort of thing seems like it'd be incredibly frustrating to watch on a nightly basis

2:09

But I honestly think it's mostly just bad timing. There have been so many attempts by analysts to pin down "clutchness," hitting with runners on, etc. and it never really shows up as a replicable skill (or lack thereof) statistically

And it's mostly the same lineup that's been awesome for a few years running

2:11

So I still expect they'll turn things around and that it's mostly just poor sequencing as opposed to a fatal flaw in the roster construction or the coaching, but I'm also fully aware it's easier to keep saying that sort of thing from a 30,000 foot view than it would be if I were watching them perform below expectations night in and night out

Jesse

2:11

How do you see the NL East Finishing? First to last: Phillies, Braves, Mets, Nationals, Marlins? Look about right?

Anthony Franco

2:12

I'm back on the Braves bandwagon

2:13

Took them preseason, jumped ship to the Mets after NY took the lead, now I'm back. ATL, NYM, PHI and I'll say Miami catches the Nats for fourth

Luke

2:13

For all the talk of how teams are going to give pitchers an innings limit after the Covid-shortened 2020, it looks like they simply aren't doing it. MLB.com says that 63 starting pitchers are already over 100 innings pitched. Can you explain this?

Anthony Franco

2:13

Hmm, I haven't looked deeply enough into this to have a real answer but it's a good question

2:15

My first thought it's just easier said than done, particularly for teams that want to win right now. (Not sure if the data bears out that they're more heavily concentrated among contenders or not).

You only have so many guys who can effectively work multiple innings, and somebody needs to pitch every night

2:16

I know it takes years to really evaluate this, but how would you grade each teams deadline deals? I think the Rangers in particular got too little value for what they gave up.

Anthony Franco

2:17

I don't have time here to go through every team, but I kind of agree on the Rangers. I think the Gallo deal was fine, but I expected a little better for Gibson/Kennedy.

2:19

Howard's not far removed from being a top prospect and maybe I'm too low on him. But there's not much in his early big league results to suggest he's more than a back-end starter or reliever

Paul

2:19

It's one thing to look at tthe GBL column, but another to look at the Loss column. Jays have games in hand, and a softer schedule. ut ther position in te Power ranking did not change post trade deadline (11). Is it dreaming in technicolour, or can they make a real run at the division?

Anthony Franco

2:20

Not crazy, but jumping three teams isn't easy. Wild Card is more likely

Ross Atkins

2:20

Was one and half years of Berrios really worth twelve combined years of Woods-Richardson and Martin? Or did get caught in the hype of finally being able to playing my home games in Canada 🇨🇦 again?

Anthony Franco

2:21

It's a little more than I'd have been comfortable giving up, but I don't hate it for Toronto. It was basically Berríos or bust for top-end starters this summer

2:23

Obviously, the window doesn't close after this year or anything (and Berríos is around through '22), but they also might not have Semien back next season. The AL playoff picture is pretty jam-packed, the Jays' run differential and underlying performance suggests they're legit. Certainly not crazy to decide now's a time to go for it

Bill B

2:23

Do you think the Giants have enough pitching to hang on to first place and do any damage in the playoffs? There are cracks in their starting pitching, half the bullpen is a revolving door and the other half has been used like a rented mule by Kapler. The team has some moxie but I believe they should have done more to acquire pitching help at the deadline.

Anthony Franco

2:25

I keep saying 'no' to this kind of question, and they keep doing it. They're four up with a little more than 50 to go. I think the Dodgers are more talented, but I kind of expect the Giants to hold on at this point, especially with Belt/Longo/La Stella back

2:26

I'd have liked them to grab a little more than Watson for the bullpen but the starting staff has been really good all year and Bryant fixes the biggest issue (LF) on the roster, so I liked their deadline overall.

Matt

2:26

Is Glasnow a lock to be traded this offseason? I can't imagine the Rays would want to pay him 2yrs of arb for only half a season of production, when they can just trade him for a prospect while cutting payroll. Seems almost too obvious to not happen.

Anthony Franco

2:26

I'd be really surprised if he opens the 2022 season on Tampa Bay's roster, yeah

sgrossman

2:27

As the Cubs and Nats swapped stars for prospects, I saw references to equal value tables--a way to compare unlike sides of a trade into a formula that compares the two. Does that exist? Where can it be found?

Anthony Franco

2:28

I'm sure there are simulators out there. I know people use the Baseball Trade Values website a lot

2:29

I don't love them personally. There are times when it makes sense for a team to give up more or less prospect value than they "should" based on their position in the standings and future outlook

2:30

Plus, that sort of formula inherently has to presume there's a universal "value" for each player. Especially with prospects, that's just not true. Teams can value those guys in very different ways that a consensus value or prospect ranking can't (and isn't designed to) capture

BIG contracts

2:30

Does the injury woes of someone as young and expensive as Acuna dampen the trend of locking up players to massive contracts early in their careers? Maybe shorter term with higher AAV or longer term with lower AAV?

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