JotCast | Trade Rumors Front Office Chat | 6/25/2021

Trade Rumors Front Office Chat

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Steve Adams

2:04

Greetings all!

Sorry to be a couple minutes behind again. Teams need to stop sending press releases about roster moves right before the start of these chats

Super inconsiderate.

ewitkows

2:04

Who do you see the Brewers targeting at the trade deadline?

Steve Adams

2:05

I'm working on a piece for the site right now about how in all reality, the Brewers probably don't quite know yet. I know The Athletic linked them, very loosely, to Trevor Story today. And that's a fit, sure, but I fully expect David Stearns and his staff to take their time. This will be a bit of a lengthier answer so I'll send it out in chunks here, ha.

2:07

The Brewers' corner infielders have been among the least-productive in MLB this year. Vogelbach was starting to hit, but he's out six weeks now -- maybe more. Travis Shaw flopped in his return, more or less. You could make an easy case for basically any corner infielder to be a fit there -- Eduardo Escobar, C.J. Cron -- take your pick.

2:08

That said, since the Brewers acquired Willy Adames and moved Luis Urias off a shortstop positon where he clearly wasn't comfortable, he's started to hit like the super-premium hitting prospect they thought they were acquiring from the Padres. It's not star-level output, but it's been good:

Urias pre-Adames trade: .208/.322/.367, four homers, seven doubles, 13.8 BB%, 25.0 K% in 144 plate appearances
Urias post-Adames trade: .273/.357/.465, four homers, five doubles, one triple, 9.0 BB%, 23.2 K% in 112 plate appearances

For good measure, here's Brewers 1B and 3B as a whole this year:

First base: .195/.294/.339 -- tied for 25th in MLB with a 78 wRC+
Third base: .225/.296/.375 -- 22nd in MLB with an 85 wRC+

2:09

Stearns, Matt Arnold and the front office were clearly big believers in Urias, and I don't think they're going to want to just block him by acquiring a third baseman when he might finally be getting going there.

2:10

Over at first base, Keston Hiura hasn't hit at all, but he's back after tearing up AAA pitching again. But while he ripped apart AAA pitchers the first time in spite of an awful K/BB approach, he's majorly upped his BB% while greatly shrinking his K% this past time in AAA. It was something like 60 plate appearances, so small sample and all that, but it's enough that they're going to want to give him the chance to prove he can hit.

2:11

Long story short, I think people will assume "they have enough pitching," but I'm not going to be surprised if the first moves they make are to deepen the pitching staff while they wait to evaluate Urias/Hiura more at the corners.

If one or both fails to hit, I like the Brewers as a fit for the aforementioned Escobar and Cron; they've shown a willingness to pursue rentals, their farm isn't good which hurts them when playing for the very top targets, etc.

That was maybe the longest answer I've ever given in one of these chats, ha

Onto the next!

A’s fan

2:11

In light of Mark Canha’s injury, is it time to promote Outfielder Greg Deichmann from Triple-A? He’s batting .317 with a .464 on-Base percentage. He might be a better option to replace Canha than current guys on the roster, Seth Brown and Skye Bolt.

Steve Adams

2:13

I think you could make the case that Deichmann should be up with or without a Canha injury. Bolt hasn't done enough to warrant the roster spot, and Brown was raking early on but has struggled of late. Plus Deichmann's already on the 40-man, so it's not like you need to worry about "Oh no, who are we going to DFA?" (even though, again, Bolt wouldn't be that hard to part with -- aside from the 80-grade name)

Illini Bill

2:13

I think the White Sox need to make a move on a 2nd basemen and/or an outfielder sooner that later, your thoughts?

Steve Adams

2:16

I think they need a move for a 2B and/or OF, sure, but the "sooner than later" part loses me a little bit. Cleveland's rotation is currently four guys who've barely pitched in MLB. None of the Royals, Tigers and Twins look like any sort of threat, unless Minnesota wins the next three against Cleveland and then sweeps the Sox or something. The division seems comfortably within their grasp right now. If they think the asking price on Adam Frazier -- which is who I think they *should* acquire -- or Robbie Grossman or whoever is too high at the moment, I don't mind them waiting.

I get the impatience, especially with their recent losing streak, but the Sox look pretty comfortably like the best team in that division with the Twins and Indians SO banged up and struggling so much.

Ateve Sdams

2:16

wtf is going on with the Cardinals? They were in first and had the second best record in the NL in late May, and then absolutely imploded. Did they eliminate any hope for a playoff spot with this dismal June?

Steve Adams

2:19

They're six back in the division. They've in no way wiped out their playoff chances, though they've obviously lowered them. The simplest answer is injuries. Their rotation has been hit hard of late.

The broader, more concerning answer is that this lack of depth in the rotation was pretty obvious and they opted not to do much about it. And their outfield remains somewhat questionable for -- what? -- the third or fourth year in a row now?

This looked like a team that should've clearly been doing more to bring in some veteran starters to have on hand in Triple-A or maybe as a long man in the 'pen to begin the year, and they just didn't do it for whatever reason.

2:20

Look at the Mets in the East. They've been clobbered by injuries up and down, but they acquired a good amount of rotation depth that has helped them mitigate the damage. Lucchesi, Yamamoto -- they're not necessarily sexy additions over the winter, but there's no reason the Cardinals should've foregone that type of move.

Billy Bobby

2:20

Where has Victor Robles’ power gone? Is there any hope for him to improve offensively?

Steve Adams

2:25

I always feel these are cop-out answers, but they're true: if I had a good answer for where Robles' power had gone, the Nats would be paying me a lot of money right now.

I don't think he was ever going to be a major slugger, but he clearly had 15-20 homer pop and enough speed to boost his slugging/ISO by legging out some doubles and triples where others wouldn't.

If you want my quick back-of-the-napkin theory -- which is just speculation, but hey, that's all any of us can from here -- it's this:

2:27

Robles is popping up at a career-worst rate, and he's never been a guy who's made consistent hard contact. Even in his 17-homer season, his hard-hit rate was quite poor, and his average exit velos weren't great, Some of that is impacted by infield hits and whatnot, but he's not a top-of-the-scale batted ball profile guy.

Because he's not making that consistent contact but is still swinging to elevate -- his GB% is also down -- he looks like a guy who kind of fell in love with trying to hit for power after he got a taste of it. His 20.1 degree launch angle is the 12th highest in MLB (min. 200 PAs). Launch angle is great to focus on and all, but when the number starts getting TOO high it means you're missing those barrels and instead hitting lazy flies and pop-ups

2:28

Robles has an awful barrel rate but a sky-high launch angle, which indicates that when he's hitting the ball in the air, he's doing so in suboptimal fashion. If you're elevating but not barreling, it's not going to result in power or production.

Almost everyone around him on this launch-angle leaderboard has 20, 30 barreled balls this year. Robles has 4:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=2...

2:29

When you're trying too hard to elevate and hit for power, it can have an adverse effect. I don't know for sure that's what is at play with Robles, but the pieces all line up nicely.

James Click

2:30

It seems right now the biggest weakness on the Astros is RP. We do have a some guys coming back in James and Baez (hopefully) to add more depth to it. Do you see me making any big moves for bullpen and/or anywhere else on this roster?

Steve Adams

2:32

I think they'll need to be a little creative and acquire some pre-arbitration relievers because they're SO close to the luxury tax and clearly don't want to exceed. Richard Rodriguez is the perfect guy for them, in my opinion, for that reason. And if they want to get real aggressive and try to pry Bryan Reynolds from Pittsburgh in that same deal to put him in center, that'd also be a boon -- not that they need much lineup help these days. Good grief.

Could also look at some of the Orioles guys ... Paul Fry, Cole Sulser. They have some nice cheap bullpen arms who mesh with Jim Crane's aversion to paying the tax.

Adam

2:33

When will the Twins make a decision to buy or sell?

Steve Adams

2:34

I wrote this in some post on them recently, but they basically play AL Central teams now through the deadline, exclusively. I think they have one series against a non-Central opponent. If they go 1-6 in this current slate against Cleveland and Chicago, that might push the front office into sell mode early. But if they make up a couple games and inch closer to .500, they'll continue holding off. They have so many games against the Tigers and Royals coming up, too, that they have to feel as though they're in a decent position if they can win a few series against the Sox and Indians.

I frankly don't think they're playing well enough for that to happen, but the front office will wait

Rusty

2:35

The Mets obviously need to get another SP. Who do you see as a good candidate to end up in Queens? Michael Pineda, maybe? Jon Gray? Danny Duffy?

Steve Adams

2:36

Pineda would work, but as I just said, the Twins seem like a team that's going to wait -- and I don't think the Mets should wait to address the issue. Gray definitely is a fit if he looks good in his next start or two and shows he's healthy. He was just activated.

I don't expect the Royals to move Danny Duffy, and even if they were going to, he's basically conducting an injury rehab assignment at the MLB level right now, which doesn't help the Mets immediately. He pitched two innings in his return stint.

2:37

Merrill Kelly would be a decent pickup from the D-backs who could be available right now. Caleb Smith is pitching well and has the type of swingman experience that could help the Mets now and down the road when they have better health in the rotation.

Dodger blue

2:38

Lots of fawning over the SF Giants but if you check, they have played one of the Weakest schedules to date. Wait until they play a bunch of games against us, the Padres, Mets, and Brewers.

Steve Adams

2:40

Strength of schedule or not, the Giants are just better than a lot of people gave them credit for. I picked Kevin Gausman as a "re-breakout" candidate this year, if that makes sense, because people seemed to not buy last year's breakout and I thought he was going to get even better. I didn't think he'd improve by THIS much, though, and that's a guy who's faced the Padres thrice, the Reds twice, the Dodgers, the Cubs.

Obviously he's just one player, but I think the Giants have proven themselves pretty successful at buying low on pitchers they feel they can improve and making it happen. DeSclafani is a maniac out there, too.

Obviously in the midst of SpiderTack-gate, everyone's going to be skeptical, but most of the Giants' success in the rotation hasn't been from big spin guys.

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