JotCast | Trade Rumors Front Office Chat

Trade Rumors Front Office Chat

Steve Adams

2:01

Greetings! Thanks as always for joining

Ron

2:01

Should the Jays just send Rowdy Tellez down, move Hernandez to DH and let Grichuk / Davis / Palacios be the 3rd/4th outfielder when Springer returns?

Steve Adams

2:03

Tellez does have an option, but I doubt the Jays are in a rush to send him down. He's only had 39 plate appearances, and he's sitting on a 97 mph average exit velo. Nearly two thirds of the ball he's put into play have been 95 mph or harder. The quality of contact has been good.

It's true that the strikeouts are up and the walks are down, but we're looking at 11 games' worth of data, which isn't much obviously. If he's still striking out 11 times as often as he's walking in a month, I could see it, but Rowdy raked last year. Thirty-nine plate appearances isn't much.

Dlucian

2:03

From a fantasy perspective, who will put up better numbers by season's end, Josh Bell, Nate Lowe, or Jared Walsh?

Steve Adams

2:08

I've been big on Lowe for awhile and was surprised the Rays traded him away. Bell's decline since that huge first half in '19 and his batted-ball profile aren't overly exciting to me.

It's between Walsh and Lowe for me, even though Bell has the track record. I think Lowe has the easiest path to regular playing time, which is obviously critical in fantasy. If I thought Walsh could keep his strikeout rate in the 18% range, I'd probably go with him, but K's were an issue for him in the minors and I'm skeptical he can do that.

I lean Lowe slightly, though I'm admittedly concerned about his strikeout rate as well.

2:09

With Bell, I just think there are going to be times he's pulled for defense, partially platooned ... and the batted-ball outlook is just concerning. Why is a guy with this much raw power putting the ball on the ground at a 54% clip over the past couple seasons?

JBird

2:10

Ryan Weathers makes his first start at LA. Whats the book on him and what can we expect. Asking for a Fantasy Baseball owner.

Steve Adams

2:12

I wouldn't start him (or almost anyone) against the Dodgers.

Weathers is a plus control guy with a good fastball and a couple average or better secondaries. Most scouting reports on him give him a mid-rotation ceiling. I don't think the K upside on him is huge, which limits his usefulness, and he's also never reached 100 innings in a pro season. They're going to be cautious with the workload.

I'd be good picking him up for the occasional spot start, particularly home starts against teams that struggle with left-handed pitching.

Could also just add him early, hope for a couple quick good outings and try to sell high. "Check out this shiny top prospect who won't at all regress in any capacity!!"

Dean

2:13

When will yanks wake up and cut Bruce loose. He is hitting under 200, striking out a lot and can’t catch balls I. The dirt. Bring Fire up for a few weeks until Volts comes back.

Steve Adams

2:16

Have to admit I was more than a bit puzzled with the whole narrative of how they didn't want to lose Bruce. He's been awful since 2019, with a .250ish OBP, and while the power is nice, they have some of that in the organization with Ford (and with Dietrich, since they kept him). I can't imagine the leash is especially long after the start Bruce has had.

Alfonse

2:16

How active do you think Detroit will be in the 2021-22 offseason for high quality free agents, especially bats?

Steve Adams

2:18

It's dependent somewhat on how much the young guys who get to the Majors in 2021 perform. If they get big years from Mize and Skubal, and Manning debuts and throws well, they're going to be pretty emboldened to go into the market and supplement that group with some bats.

I don't think they're going to cannonball into the deep end and sign Corey Seager like a Reddit investor YOLOing on Gamestop (no idea why I felt the need to make that reference, but I did!) -- but I would expect some actual free-agent spending if the core is looking good this season.

Wayneroo

2:19

Big Mariner fan here, and I'm looking forward to what happens with all of our kids in the near future. That said, I still don't beleive Kelenic is going to be our savior at this point. Is he good? Absolutely, but maybe we can give him more than 92 PAs at AA before we anoint him the second coming of Junior Griffey. The whole Zunino-being-rushed experience is too fresh in my mind to see Kelenic be brought up too soon and then dominated by real MLB pitchers.

Steve Adams

2:22

There's 100% a risk that Kelenic comes up and just gets clobbered by MLB pitching. We tend to think of these prospects as sure bets to hit, and that's not the case -- especially when they're making aggressive jumps. (See: Andrew Vaughn or even Kelenic's own teammate, Evan White)

That said, the Mariners all but told Kelenic he'd have been up last year if he'd signed the extension, so they're pretty clearly of the belief that he's close. Dipoto's group thought Kelenic was the top player in that draft class.

I'd temper expectations, but I also have higher offensive hope for Kelenic than I ever did for Zunino, who was always regarded as a power bat who could play a strong catcher ... and hopefully he'd hit some as well.

The latter part, obviously, never really came around.

bob

2:22

is this the year Luis "Mr. Contact" Arraez wins his first batting title?

Steve Adams

2:24

Arraez is crazy fun to watch. Love the personality, the flair, and the bat-to-ball skills are preternatural. I still think it's going to be hard for him to win a batting title because the lack of power is going to leave him wholly BABIP dependent.

2:25

Really fun player though, and seems like he'll consistently be in that .290 to .310 range, average-wise. He'll probably have some outlier seasons where he's in the .320s to .340s and in contention for a crown, I just don't expect that to be the norm or anything.

Luis Guillorme

2:26

SSS and all that, but I've been hitting so far this season, and there's no comparison between my glove and Davis'. Is the job mine now?

Steve Adams

2:27

He has 15 plate appearances

If he went 0-for-5 tomorrow, his average would drop 100 points

2:28

I'm still trying to figure out when J.D. Davis went from "what a good under-the-radar acquisition" to "This guy stinks can we play this light-hitting utility infielder over him" -- it is a prevailing sentiment among Mets fans, and it is utterly baffling to me. When Davis is back, the job should be his.

Jeff

2:29

I know they have the best record in the al east and are exceeding expectations but wouldnt the sox be a better team with tanner houk in the rotation than garret richards or martin perez

Steve Adams

2:30

The Red Sox signed Richards for $10MM, and he's given up two runs over his past 10 innings. They're not bumping him from the rotation, nor should they. Same thinking applies to Perez for now.

I get wanting to see Houck every fifth day, but they're going to be careful with his workload, and they're going to need 10+ starters to get through this season. He'll get his innings. It's not like if they DFA'ed Perez today, Houck would come up and throw 170 innings anyhow.

Dave

2:30

Do you think Michael Kopech will remain in the White Sox bullpen, or will he eventually be moved into the rotation?

Steve Adams

2:31

He'll move into the rotation in the future, and maybe make some starts later this season depending on his workload, but I expect him to primarily be a multi-inning reliever this season. And a good one.

bob

2:31

Sort of hilarious that the Cardinals FO spent the past 12 months talking about needing to see what they have in their young outfielders, and less than a month into the season Edman is the starting right fielder, Lane Thomas just got demoted and Williams and ONeil are fighting for playing time.

Steve Adams

2:35

Yeah, it's puzzling how the Cardinals have seemingly been trying to upgrade their outfield for a half decade but never really managed to give any of their in-house guys a particularly long look. Really, it's been longer than five years. I still remember when they were hot potato'ing Grichuk, Bourjos, Pham, Jon Jay, etc. under Matheny. The agent for one of the many outfielders in that carousel lamented to me that every outfielder on the team was walking up to the plate afraid to go 0-for-4 because they knew they'd be on the bench the next day.

The St. Louis outfield is just bizarre and has been for some time now. I have to imagine at this point, the constant breakouts they've traded away have left them a little gunshy about selling low on an O'Neill or Thomas, too, which would only compound things.

Luis Rojas

2:36

How long can I survive with this bullpen? Seems like an adventure every time out. Also, can we just assume Betances will be on the IL for the rest of the season?

Steve Adams

2:37

Eh, I think the 'pen will be fine. The early season can look real ugly but these things balance out. I think Trevor May is one of the better relievers in baseball, and Diaz is up there as well when he's not inexplicably serving up a long ball every other heater. Between those two, Miguel Castro (I also like him) and Aaron Loup, there's a good foundation. Get Lugo back healthy and it starts to look pretty solid.

Steve Adams Hot Takes

2:37

What are your hot takes of the season?

Steve Adams

2:42

I generally think hot takes are silly and more designed to draw ratings/clicks than anything else. They're usually short-sighted, poorly informed and wholly lacking nuance. I kind of cringe at them, because the real answer is usually that things are kind of in the middle and will balance out.

I guess my Cy Young picks could've been "hot take"-y prior to the season. Brandon Woodruff in particular. I actually had Corbin Burnes in my initial version of picks but changed to Woodruff since he had more innings last year and I thought (and still think) he'll end up pitching 20-30 more innings. Still wish I'd gone Burnes after the first couple weeks though, ha.

Does "Javier Baez's MVP season was fluky" count as hot take-y? Probably not after how he's looked the past few seasons.

MVP-caliber season*

Travis

2:43

The Cubs have been hemming and hawing around for the past 3 offseasons about trading/extending their core. Now that it looks like there's a good chance they all arrive at free agency in the offseason, what would you project that it takes to sign each of Bryant, Rizzo, & Baez? Willson Contreras is a year but what do you think it would take to sign him to an extension this offseason?

Do you think the Cubs front office has made an error in not either trading or signing these players before they reach the end of their current contract?

Thanks so much for your insight! I'm a new member as of last fall and i LOVE all the great additional content you offer. I'm sure to be a member for years to come.

Steve Adams

2:43

Seems like a good transition into this question, ha

Firstly: thank you for the kind words and for your commitment! It really means a lot to us, especially after the pandemic year wreaked havoc on the business.

2:47

As always, their eventual contracts are tied to their 2021 performances. I don't think the Cubs would've been able to extend Bryant unless they were willing to get into the $300MM range. They reportedly offered 200+ and it didn't get done or close. Bryant has seemingly wanted to bet on himself, and maybe that'll cost him, but lord knows he has the financial security to do so.

I would think Rizzo looked at Goldschmidt's 5/130 for the same chunk of his career and felt that was the market rate for his own services.

Baez is tough for me to peg, because as I alluded to, I just never fully bought into the MVP-2 season. When Tim Dierkes and I were talking about it at the time, he was $200MM+ at minimum, and I just couldn't see it making sense for the Cubs.

I would think Contreras sees the $20MM+ catchers are beginning to bring in (Sal Perez, JTR) and values himself in a similar mold.

Load More Messages

Connecting…

Message History

On Off

Your current subscriptions

None

E-mail Address	Chat Owner	Status	Remove

Enter your email address to be notified when Steve Adams hosts a chat