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The D1Baseball Weekly Chat: April 22
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marshall
12:27
Is CAL baseball for real?
Kendall Rogers
12:27
I think Cal is pretty dangerous. We talked about it on the D1Baseball Podcast last week, but they have Greene, Lomavita, Moutzouridis and some others that make that lineup pretty dangerous in my opinion. And though he's only able to throw a few innings at a time, I kinda wonder if Ian May can be a frontline weapon in the postseason. They're definitely dangerous to me.
Chris
12:29
ECU moved up to 7. What do you think the ceiling is for their rank? And after having Oregon State as the 8th seed with the sound reasoning of “they are on the west coast,” with them going 1-4, ECU a top 8 seed now, right?
Aaron Fitt
12:29
ECU can keep on climbing into the top five -- there is no artificial ceiling, it just depends what the teams ahead of them do. I certainly think they are a bona fide national title contender and I would feel perfectly comfortable with them ranked inside the top five, if they keep on winning and some teams ahead of them lose their weekends. As for the Oregon State thing, you are warping what we said last week. Winning the Pac-12 simply carries more weight than winning the American, that was the point last week. But Oregon State is no longer on track to win the Pac after this past weekend, so that argument no longer applies.
cool 1
ThePayne
12:31
Georgia Tech be doing Georgia Tech things by living that #bubblelife.  With back to back weekend series wins over Virginia Tech and Virginia, have they played their way onto the good side of the bubble?
Kendall Rogers
12:31
TP -- I love the way Georgia Tech has played on the weekend the past couple of weeks. What they did on the road against UVA, in particular, is very loud. I'm still skeptical an ACC team with an RPI of 61 gets into the tournament, but GT is .500 in league and does have some very high-end wins. It's definitely a very intriguing resume. If the bubble is as small as it was last week in this week's NerdCast .... just maybe?
Josh
12:32
Aaron- how would you rate the arms for nc state that you saw this weekend? Seems like everyone with an ERA north of 5.00 was dominant.
Aaron Fitt
12:32
I was so encouraged by what I saw from Dominic Fritton, who is such an enormous key for that team. Sure, he gave up a few solo home runs, but I think that's fine -- would much rather see him just pump fastballs down the middle because most of the time opponents aren't going to struggle against that pitch. If somebody runs into it once in a while, so be it -- but if he's over the plate, I think he's really tough. Derrick Smith was also a revelation -- he looks like a real dude toward the back end now, and obviously so is Dudan. I'm a bit concerned about Highfill though -- he's clearly less than 100 percent again, and his stuff was not very good. That's a problem.
Dairylane_Kaolin
12:32
Who do you feel more confident hosting a regional between these 3 SEC East teams: UGA, Vanderbilt, or South Carolina?
Kendall Rogers
12:32
Not sure how Fitt feels about this one vs. me, but I personally think Vanderbilt has the best chance to finish stronger out of the three teams. But the gap is pretty small to me. I just have a bit more faith in the Commodores right now (yes, I know SC swept Vandy at home).
Aaron Fitt
12:35
I would tend to agree with Kendall. But it does feel like South Carolina is just quietly staying right there in the regional hosting hunt by never getting swept and winning just enough series (sweeping Vandy being the highlight, obviously). Just kinda have a feeling that the Gamecocks find a way to sneak into one of those hosting spots.
NolesFan1
12:33
Should we be concerned about FSU? The injuries are clearly affecting them, but if they don’t get their pitchers back, are they they’re in trouble. Duke and NC State are tough series and GT is playing well again. Are their National Seed and Regional host hopes in jeopardy?
Aaron Fitt
12:33
You're right that getting Leiter and Whittaker back is a huge key, they're obviously not the same team without those two guys -- and nobody would be. Those are two really good arms, and two-thirds of a weekend rotation that I regarded as one of FSU's greatest strengths (clearly). But I still love how the Seminoles competed this weekend, and the way they swung the bats -- they gave Wake Forest all it could handle in a tough road series. I think the Noles are good enough in the lineup to stay above water until they get healthier. I still love their hosting chances and feel OK about their top 8 chances.
Greg
12:34
Who would you take right now in a neutral site series: Arkansas or Tennessee?
Kendall Rogers
12:34
That's a damn good question. I think I would take A&M over Arkansas on a neutral site, while I might lean ever so slightly Arkansas' direction against Tennessee. I think the gap between Arkansas and UT is pretty sizable on the mound, where as the gap between someone like A&M is much smaller. But would anyone be surprised by any result in that series? I can't believe the SEC didn't give us Vols vs. Arkansas OR A&M. Blasphemy!
Aaron Fitt
12:36
For me, it's Arkansas over anybody on a neutral field -- I just still believe their pitching is so much better than anybody else's. In Omaha, the teams that have the true shutdown arms are the teams that win it all; I don't care if Arkansas has a less scary offense than those other teams. They are best positioned to win in Omaha because of their pitching.
Jaxon S
12:37
What’s yall’s go-to food when on the road?
Kendall Rogers
12:37
I kinda like this fun question for a change of pace. For me, I'm a big food guy so I love finding something local to eat. I haven't been in a few years, but I was in Heaven when I went to Miami and just had local Cuban food the entire time. As for snacks, I'm an almonds/pecans guy ... I believe my man Fitt is a big fan of jerky.
Aaron Fitt
12:43
Yeah, lots of jerky and trail mix for me as my snacks while driving or sitting at the park. As for meals, I always try to seek out the best local BBQ place wherever I go.
Josh
12:38
What does NC state need to do the rest of the way to host? 3 top 15 series can really boost the rpi.
Aaron Fitt
12:38
Yeah, the Wolfpack is suddenly in striking range of hosting, with a 12-9 ACC record and a top 30 RPI. If they can get to 17 ACC wins -- which would mean winning two of their last three series -- then the RPI will keep on going up and I think they'll have a solid shot to host. That won't be easy, with series at FSU, at UVA and vs. Wake, but there's a path.
Chris
12:40
Trey Yesavage. The best pitcher or the bestest pitcher?
Kendall Rogers
12:40
He's really good, and I thought our Walter Villa had an awesome feature on him a couple of weeks ago that you should check out. Basically how what he's doing right now is a huge surprise to a lot of people in his inner circle. ECU has an elite one-two punch, and that ultimately could be what finally sends it to Omaha.
Mason
12:46
What do you think Southern Miss's post-season chances are?
Aaron Fitt
12:46
Very bubbly right now. Losing Sunday at home vs. ULM was a setback, that was a series USM really needed to sweep, given where they are in the RPI (No. 50) and in the standings (4 games back of Louisiana). But I still like the Eagles and think they are likely to finish strong. And the remaining schedule  offers two major opportunities, with a road series at Louisiana and a home series vs. Coastal. If they can win both of those series, I will feel much, much better about their chances. And they're certainly capable of doing that.
GoodKarma
12:48
What are you thinking about K State?  Big series win against a ranked Okie State team!
Aaron Fitt
12:48
Yeah, K-State feels a bit like the Big 12's version of South Carolina -- they keep doing enough to stay right in the hunt, despite being just .500 in the league. They scheduled so aggressively in the nonconference that their RPI remains in solid at-large shape (No. 34) despite an up and down season. I saw them twice this week at UConn and Northeastern, and I feel like this weekend is the start of a run for them -- I still really like that position player group. Pete Hughes said the biggest key for them is getting more length out of their starters, and I think moving Jackson Wentworth into the rotation was exactly the right move. As Roons said in our group chat, he's a bit like Conner Fenlong was for Indiana State last year: here comes the cutter, good luck hitting it.
Cyrille
12:48
If Irvine does not win the big west, would they still make the tournament ?
Kendall Rogers
12:48
Cyrille -- Irvine would definitely make the tournament if the season ended today. UCSB and UCI are actually in very good shape -- it's just the rest of the Big West that isn't in very good shape. I also feel like there's some built in cushion for UCI after it got totally hosed last year. That's a pretty good club.
Eric Simmons
12:50
After Wake Forest's series win over Florida State are they back in the Top 8 National Seed discussion?
Kendall Rogers
12:50
Definitely in the Top 8 discussion with an RPI of 9. Wake also ranks third nationally (tied with a couple of others) in Q1 wins. It's funny how we all kind of naturally think Wake has struggled at times, yet, here it is with a month remaining and squarely in the mix for a T8.
Heel
12:51
How is UNC looking in terms of a potential Top 8 at this point? If they can finish strong and end up with the best ACC regular season record, coupled with the sweep at Wake which is looking better by the week, and a strong RPI, I would think they would have a compelling case.
Aaron Fitt
12:51
Yeah, this is one of those where the metrics are better than the human rankings, because UNC keeps losing key series two out of three (they've done that four times) but they never get swept, and they've swept enough other series and taking care of business in nonconference, so at the end of the day they're still in great shape for a top 8 seed with a No. 7 RPI and a 15-6 conference record. We've got them ranked lower because we place more value on winning weekend series than the committee does -- although in recent years the committee has talked more about series wins than they used to.
Jake
12:52
What does UNCW need to do to get an at large?
Kendall Rogers
12:52
Jake -- I think I'd actually feel OK about UNCW getting in right now without winning the CAA with a 42 RPI and a very solid non-conference SOS. The thing about UNCW is that yes it has a couple of stinkers of Non-Conf series, but it also played perennial mid-major contenders in Kent State and South Al + the usual crop of strong teams in the midweek. They would certainly pass the eyeball test with Thatch, Marsh, Sales, etc.
cool 1
Lubbock
12:54
How much damage can Tech do to the Big 12 race the rest of the way? I mean we still get OU at home which is a big advantage and a inconsistent OSU team with Kansas sandwiched between.
Aaron Fitt
12:54
Texas Tech is another team that feels like capable of making a series run down the stretch. Somebody else in the chat today, "Raider Red," suggested that this was the most complete weekend we've seen out of TTU all year long, and I would completely agree. And West Virginia has a good club -- that's a really loud sweep for me. If Tech can win those remaining series that you mention, the Raiders can absolutely jump up into hosting range. They're in a similar spot to NC State right now -- 12-9 in the league, No. 28 in the RPI, puts them right in striking range of hosting but not there yet. A strong finish gets them there.
tiger47
12:54
after a tough patch what do y'all think of Clemson
Aaron Fitt
12:56
I kinda think what I've always thought -- those guys have so much mental toughness, and they keep on battling in spite of all these injuries. So well coached, and so even keeled, and they're never out of a game. Ultimately I still don't feel like they have elite pitching, but it feels like Jimmy Belanger has really gotten the most out of the pieces he's got, they have performed well. Aidan Knaack has really come into his own and become a dude as a freshman, and Tristan Smith getting back will be a huge help. They remain an obvious Omaha contender and a strong bet for a top eight seed.
Jeramey
12:58
What are your thoughts on Georgia Tech at this point? Will they make the tournament? How Close is Georgia Tech to being in the tournament projections with an RPI at 60? They have a chance to improve this drastically with series left against Clemson, Duke and Florida State.
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