JotCast | RosterResource Chat

RosterResource Chat - 8/7/25

Jason Martinez

2:02

Welcome to the 1st post-trade deadline RosterResource Chat! Such a fun week. Now here's a reminder that it's never too early for offseason questions.

Shout out to Jon for getting our Platoon Lineups feature up and running ... https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/platoon-lineups/diamondbacks

Still a few more things to add, including "last 6 lineups", but this should be a great resource throughout the year.

Sorpresas

2:03

If Brandon Woodruff keeps dealing through the end of the season (& hopefully into the playoffs) what kind of contract will he be looking at? Four years $100M possible?

Jon Becker

2:05

He looks to be all the way back, but 4/100 still seems pretty aggressive for a guy who will be at under 100 innings including the playoffs after not pitching in MLB for around two years, plus he'll be entering his age-33 season. I think something like 3/63 with an opt out after the first year sounds about right.

Guest

2:05

i have a dumb fantasy reason to keep asking, but what are the chances of just one more Carroll CF start? as you predicted, they went away after Grichuk got dealt. any injury or one-week shenanigan possibilities?

Jason Martinez

2:07

As things currently stand, they can't field an OF without Thomas or Barrosa in the lineup and they would play CF over Carroll. Only way I see it happening is when Pavin Smith comes back and they want to field a lineup with him, Locklear (1B), and Del Castillo (DH). Then Smith would have to play RF and Carroll would play CF. So it's possible.

Chris

2:07

I was curious what Yanks wouldve done if Slater hadnt gotten injured the day before Judge was activated. It seems like they didnt know they were gonna add Caballero when they traded for Rosario, so maybe Amed wouldve been gone?

Jon Becker

2:08

Nah, they wouldn't have traded for Rosario just to DFA him a couple days later. Cashman was sure to point out that Caballero having options available was a reason they went out and got him, so he would have gone to AAA.

Mac

2:08

Bubba Chandler time yet?

Jason Martinez

2:10

The Pirates have a TBD (8/9) listed for Saturday but Chandler just pitched on 8/5. My guess is that they wait at least 1 more turn and then give him 4-5 MLB starts to finish out the season. He's at 93 IP right now and I think they'd be comfortable getting him to the 130-135 IP range.

Warren

2:10

how do you think the blue jays manage their roster when Springer and Gimenez come back? do they DFA Ty France?

Jon Becker

2:12

Buddy Kennedy's the easy one to kick off the roster for one of them since he's a journeyman who just joined the roster, but the other spot is tougher. France is a 1B-only bench guy to begin with, and he's the only hitter on the roster besides Kennedy with a below-average wRC+, so it feels like it basically has to be him barring another injury.

clydethedog

2:13

any chance giants bring up Eldridge before September?

Jason Martinez

2:14

Yeah I think so, especially if they're completely out of the playoff race. I think Posey understands the importance of keeping the fan base engaged and an Eldridge call-up would draw plenty of interest. Still has some things to work on but he's crushing the ball in AAA.

Opifijikl

2:14

Didn't Jarren Duran start out as an infielder? Any ideas why the Red Sox don't try him there again and keep Rafaela in Center Field?

Jon Becker

2:16

Duran hasn't played the infield since he played 20 games in A-ball at 2B in 2018, so it would be a huge ask to move him back there. Rafaela's an elite CF but Duran certainly isn't bad out there, and I think elite CF/maybe-awful-and-definitely-uncomfortable 2B isn't as secure a combo as good CF/solid 2B.

Guest

2:17

What is the plan for Bradish ROS?

Jason Martinez

2:18

He has 3 rehab starts under his belt and got roughed up in 3 innings in his last one. I'd expect 2 more MiLB starts and then activated in late August. That should give him about 6-7 MLB starts before season's end.

Guest

2:19

Mackenzie Gore: injured, team breaks all their pitchers, rough patch, he's just like this, all of the above?

Jon Becker

2:20

I think rough patch is the likeliest answer, but why he's in the rough patch requires some more investigating. I'd be pretty concerned about him tipping pitches if I was the Nats, 60 pitches to 21 batters with just seven whiffs is extremely unusual for a guy with his stuff.

James

2:20

All the players the Astros acquired have several years of control. How do they break the logjam next year? Does Walker or Paredes get traded or does someone have to learn to play 2B?

Jason Martinez

2:23

I think they'll try to trade Paredes. Still 2 years of team control and he had an .829 OPS so value should be strong. But they have to plan just in case there isn't a strong market for him. Moving him to 2B isn't ideal. There will some DH at-bats open if Alvarez is healthy and can play LF (Altuve back to 2B).

Nate

2:23

Do you have an understanding/can you explain a little about how the Astros luxury tax works now after adding Correa? I've heard mixed things as far as if we managed to stay under it or not with the money the Twins included...but that seems mind boggling to think about

Jon Becker

2:25

The intricacies require more explanation that I have time to provide in this chat, but if you want to chat you can find me on X or Bluesky or email rosters@fangraphs.com and I can give more detail! The TLDR is that I've currently got them at juuuuuuuuuuust a little bit under the CBT line, about $2M from hitting it, which is such a small amount that they very well could go over, especially with all the injured players they've had to pay.

Phil

2:25

If the playoffs started tomorrow, would Yoshida be on the postseason roster? What if they start when they're actually starting?

Jason Martinez

2:28

Yeah he'd be on the roster. Whether he'd start or not is the question. He's been in the lineup vs RHP and I think they're trying to figure out if he can regain his previous form. He had a 135 wRC+ vs RHP in 2024. Currently, you can make the argument that having Romy Gonzalez in the lineup at 2B and moving Rafaela to CF (Duran in LF, Anthony at DH) is their best option. Same deal if Marcelo Mayer is healthy.

Guest

2:28

Do we think Ben Joyce comes back at full strength next year? What is his expected role?

Jon Becker

2:30

We never got many specifics on his injury other than that he tore his labrum, which is certainly a bad injury, though we don't know how bad a tear. As best I can find, there's no clear timetable either. IF he's back to 102-105 mph and IF the Angels don't sign a Proven Closer (they probably will), he'll be a front-runner for the closer's job. But shoulder injuries are even more finicky than elbow injuries so I'll be eager to see how he bounces back.

Oaktown Blues

2:30

Do you think the A's will keep Darell Hernaiz in the bigs when Wilson comes off the IL?

Jason Martinez

2:32

Yep. Wilson has a fractured forearm so I'm not expecting him back anytime soon. And they'll have an extra bench spot in September. No reason to prioritize at-bats for pending free agents like Urias and Urshela so I'll assume they'll get a good look at Muncy, Hernaiz, and Gelof regardless of whether Wilson comes back or not.

Ben from DC

2:33

Any predictions for Tucker's contract?

Jon Becker

2:34

He's having a weird season. Been really good, of course, but the power hasn't been there to nearly the extent it should be. Some of it is the wind at Wrigley, a lot of it is the finger that he injured on the slide a couple months ago, which is impeding his ability to grip the bat the way he likes. Still a super high floor because of his base running skill and OBP but I think $400M could be close to his ceiling unless the power comes back down the stretch. Still a lot of time to mash and get a half a billion.

Jose Caba-where-o

2:34

Caballero's playing time has plummeted in NY. Should we assume this is the norm going forward?

Jason Martinez

2:37

He was brought in as a utilityman who plays mostly vs LHP. And that hasn't changed. He is good vs LHP and none of their lefty bats (other than Bellinger and Wells) have been good against LHP this season.

Twins Pitching

2:37

Do you think Taj Bradley, Mick Abel, or both will pitch innings for the Twins this year, or will they leave both in the minors and have them compete for jobs next spring?

Jon Becker

2:38

I think they'll each get a handful of starts at minimum, yeah. They're not actually going to stick with the Ureña/Ohl bullpen games 40% of the time for the rest of the season, they just wanted to get Bradley and Abel acclimated to the org before (probably) calling them up soon.

Guest

2:39

What does the Twins opening day lineup look like next season, with Keaschall back and other top guys getting close?

Jason Martinez

2:43

I'll predict that "Walker Jenkins possibly making the Opening Day roster" will be an interesting topic but it won't happen. Same with Emmanuel Rodriguez. I think their current options are good enough to allow the Twins to be patient. Therefore, this is what I'd guess if just using the current options ...

Luke Keaschall, 2B
Matt Wallner, RF
Byron Buxton, CF
Kody Clemens, 1B
Ryan Jeffers, C
Trevor Larnach, DH
Royce Lewis, 3B
Brooks Lee, SS
Alan Roden or James Outman, LF

Guest

2:43

What are the chances of River Ryan cracking the Dodgers rotation next year?

Jon Becker

2:45

Pretty low, at least to start next year. Tommy John rehab tends to be closer to 18 months than 12 these days, and 18 months would put him at late February. Even if his rehab goes great and he's full go next year, they might want to start him off in a more controlled environment to monitor his innings. No big need to rush him with Snell, Yamamoto, Glasnow, and Ohtani all assured of spots, with Sasaki likely to have one, Kershaw having an open invitation to return, etc.

Opifijikl

2:45

I was looking back at an article from spring about how Texas tried to rebalance its production by essentially replacing Lowe with Barger/Pederson and trading some OBP for SLG. Obviously plans don't always work out, but do you think the process/idea behind this kind of rebalancing makes sense?

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