JotCast | RosterResource Chat

RosterResource Chat - 1/31/25

Jason Martinez

2:00

Welcome to the RosterResource Live Chat! We'll get to as many questions as possible. Here we go ...

AL Central Casting

2:01

Any thoughts on where J.D. Martinez winds up signing? There is not a lot of demand for RH DHs so does he end up going to whoever offers him the most at the start of spring training? Maybe with an eye toward getting traded to a contender later? Does he wait for spring injuries to boost his market?

Jon Becker

2:04

Jon Heyman reported just last night that he's planning on playing this year, and it's unsurprising that there hasn't been any reported interest in him (that doesn't mean there isn't any) since he's a DH-only who was just 8% above league average last year by wRC+. He'd still be an upgrade for a bunch of teams but I can also understand those teams not wanting to lock in their DH slot. If he's open to sitting more often (maybe against tough righties?) he'd make a lot of sense for the Diamondbacks, Padres, Royals, and Giants (though the latter two teams don't have good parks to hit in). Marlins also make sense if he's fine playing for a non-contender.

B Turang

2:04

What will the Brewers do with their infield? Move Ortiz, Turang, or neither to SS?

Jason Martinez

2:07

I think it's going to depend on who wins the open infield spot. If Oliver Dunn is the starting 3B, then Ortiz at SS and Turang stays at 2B. If Caleb Durbin is the starting 2B, then Turang moves to SS and Ortiz stays at 3B. Still a few good free agent options, too. I think Jose Iglesias would be a good fit at 2B and Yoan Moncada would be an interesting bounce-back candidate at 3B.

Matt

2:07

Do the Cubs still need a RHH 1B to backup Michael Busch or could Jon Berti do that this season?

Jon Becker

2:09

My guess is they'd be totally fine if it just ends up being Berti. Backup 1B as a more specific role has kinda gone by the wayside since the universal DH — usually the backup 1B was also your top PH, shoutout Daryle Ward and Greg Norton! — and now it's a lot of "we'll give this guy some work in spring training just in case we need him."

2:10

Estevez or Erceg get first crack at closing in KC?

Jason Martinez

2:11

I think it's either Estevez or "no set closer" and it's mostly Estevez with Erceg getting a good share and an occasional save chance for one of the other guys (Harvey, Schreiber, Zerpa). Erceg seems pretty comfortable coming in earlier than the 9th and getting 4+ outs. I can see him getting some 4-5 out saves, too.

Dana Brown

2:12

It seems highly unlikely he will be moved, but what could the Astros get for Framber Valdez?

Jon Becker

2:14

The Burnes deal is going to be my go-to comp for Framber, Cease, and King since they all have very roughly the same trade value. The Astros now are a good comp to the Brewers last offseason in that they'll want MLB-ready talent, probably specifically a LHH OF and a pitcher (starter or reliever, or some kind of hybrid, like DL Hall). Heston Kjerstaad and Cade Povich very broadly fit that mold, just to throw a hypothetical out there.

Kate

2:15

What the heck do you all make of the Dodgers pen at this point? RR makes it look like a big shrug emoji and I'm not sure I blame you. Feels like Scott and Yates prob have a leg up on the rest for saves though, no?

Jason Martinez

2:18

I have it listed as committee right now just because I think Dave Roberts is super confident (maybe even a bit arrogant) about his roster (why wouldn't he be?) and it would be kind of a flex to just have 5-6 different guys getting saves so he can show everyone in his bullpen can be a closer. But Scott/Yates got paid like closers and I'd expect them to get the biggest share.

Rayball10

2:19

Where do you see Rengifo playing mostly in 2025? How many total games?

Jon Becker

2:20

Right now we're allocating him 595 PA, second on the team. Most of that is evenly split between second and third, but Christian Moore coming up sooner than expected would force Rengifo to bounce around more, or just have him take over at third with Rendon on the bench/DHing more.

diadem

2:20

What was Yamamoto's health history in japan? Any red flags?

Jason Martinez

2:22

Red flag is that he throws a baseball as fast as he can for a living. In all seriousness, I think he stayed relatively healthy in Japan. Not even sure if he's had a TJ surgery. Not sure if that a good thing or not since it eventually comes for every pitcher.

Kate

2:23

Is Starling Marte a short-side platoon guy at this point?

Jon Becker

2:24

If he's on the Mets, that's really all that's open for him. They've tried to trade him somewhere where he can get more playing time but they understandably have had a lot of trouble with that since he's making $19 million this year and is really poor on defense now.

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine

2:24

Is there a way to communicate the degree of confidence in listing a team's closer(s), especially where there are multiple candidates (see DET) or unproven ones (see CHW)?

Jason Martinez

2:28

You can ask me here, social media, or email me at rosters@fangraphs.com. Always happy to discuss my thinking behind any roster or playing time projection. Most of the closer projections that show a co-closing situation or committee fall somewhere between "multiple good candidates" and "zero good candidates". Tigers have multiple good ones and showed last season that they weren't afraid to go with different guys. White Sox have zero good candidates.

Rayball10

2:28

What sort of role(s) do you see Eiberson Castellano in for the Twins to keep him up all year?

Jon Becker

2:29

He's going to have to show he can be really useful as a multi-inning reliever, because he's buried on the depth chart for starters. Even if Varland is a full-time reliever he's still behind López, Ryan, Ober, SWR, Paddack, Festa, and Matthews for starts, at minimum.

Guest

2:30

Is Zach Neto expected to be healthy for Opening Day?

Jason Martinez

2:33

Not a lot of info available at this time. We just know that he's "questionable". A lot of those with "questionable" status will start becoming clearer once Spring Training begins because the manager or GM start answering more questions frequently and they have a better idea on player's health once they actually show up and start doing baseball activities. I suspect they'll be cautious with Neto. Seems to be a very important part of their team so they need him at 100%.

Kate

2:33

What are the odds Brendan Rodgers lands somewhere with a (close to) everyday role?

Jon Becker

2:34

I'd say a pretty good chance, since he doesn't steal bases nor does he play anywhere besides second base, so he's a very tough sell as anything but a starting second baseman. Yankees have reported interest, and speculatively he'd make sense as a White Sox stopgap or Brewer (if they want to re-rearrange the infield and go with Turang at short and Ortiz at third).

Alec

2:35

Does Curtis Mead get another run at a major-league roll sometime this year? Does he seem like a trade candidate after the Kim signing?

Jason Martinez

2:37

Not really a path to playing time, at least not heading into 2025. If things go really bad, Yandy Diaz and Brandon Lowe will almost certaily be on the trade market and that would open up some playing time for him. Aside from that, I think a trade would be his best bet. Not sure his value is where the Rays would want it to be, though. Might need to put up some big numbers in AAA to draw interest.

Alec

2:39

Is there room for Ryne Nelson in the crowded rotation/bullpen in Arizona this year? He has some really strong outings in the second half of last year

Jon Becker

2:39

The rotation looks unlikely as things sit, but I'd like to see them try him out in the bullpen. He had that one Sunday Night Baseball start against the Astros where he was throwing 97-99 in the early innings, and if he can do that on every fastball as a reliever, he'd be a real weapon.

2:40

Will Kike Hernandez be in the Dodgers plans this year? Do they have to release Chris Taylor to make it work?

Jason Martinez

2:42

There is room right now. Andy Pages would begin the season in AAA, though. I think they'd be open to releasing Taylor at some point in 2025. Just not before the season begins. Always a chance he figures something out and is a lot better than the last couple seasons.

Dan H

2:43

The Giant's have two stated goals that are seemingly at odds, given the state of their farm and roster. One is to trim payroll, and the other is to compete. We've seen moves signaling both of these (e.g trading Rogers for cash relief, signing Adames to a huge deal), but currently it seems like they're stuck in the middle. Who do you see as realistic targets for them to pursue to accomplish each of these goals, knowing that outside of Eldridge they don't have much to deal? I'd love a Flaherty signing to open up a trade of a young pitcher, but that feels unlikely at this point.

Jon Becker

2:45

I'm not sure these are inherently at odds, since we estimate they have $30M to work with before hitting last year's payroll, so they could still cut payroll (just by a smaller amount) while, say, signing Flaherty or Pivetta. I think not reinvesting the Rogers cash would be a mistake with their clear needs (bullpen could use some help and they might want one more bat); I know Posey said they like their roster where it's at but that could very well be posturing. Baseball ops heads don't want to come across as desperate.

2:46

ETA on ZIPS integration into FGDC? Thanks!

Jason Martinez

2:47

Last year, I asked immediately after Dan finished his last team because I'm not very patient. He still had some things to do after that before it could be mixed into the formula so it took at least a few more days. So hopefully sometime next week.

scuffy McGee

2:48

What non marquee free agent are you surprised hasn't signed yet

Jon Becker

2:49

This is a very lame answer, but there aren't really any that surprise me. If players haven't signed it's because there's a disconnect with what they want (whether that's money or playing time or location) and what's out there, and with any given free agent, elite all the way on down, that can be the case. It just takes longer for some guys to either lower their asking price or get a team to up its offer.

Jason Martinez

2:50

Jose Iglesias. Mr. OMG.

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