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Reds Outlook '23
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Anthony Franco
10:00
Good morning everyone, hope all is well!
Excited to talk Reds
Jonah
10:01
Who are some right handed hitting OF the Reds could make a play for?
Anthony Franco
10:02
Robbie Grossman seems like the best fit there. He's made a career off hitting LHP. Randal Grichuk could work
Bader hits lefties pretty well but I think someone will give him an everyday CF job that isn't available in Cincinnati
Jonah
10:02
Is there a legit top tier starter available on the trade market?
Anthony Franco
10:03
The Milwaukee guys might be but it's tough to see an intra-division trade. Shane Bieber's more of an upper mid-rotation guy at this point. Dylan Cease is possible, if unlikely
10:04
The Blue Jays could see low on Alek Manoah, who has the potential to be a top-tier starter but was unplayable this year
There are upside plays but I don't see a true #1 starter who has a greater than 50% chance to be dealt, no
Todd
10:05
What to do with India? He clearly doesn’t have a middle infield spot in the future and doesn’t have a consistent bat to be a DH, but without him in the lineup, there was a clear clubhouse leader missing.
Anthony Franco
10:07
Yeah they're in a tough spot. I expect they'll keep him, in large part because the trade value isn't what it once was. He looks like a fine player but hasn't built off the rookie season where he seemed like a franchise building block. The market generally devalues bat-first second basemen
10:08
He still has some value, to be clear, but if they're floating his name and getting offered #4/5 starters in return, it's probably best to hold him. He seems beloved in the clubhouse, maybe the injury contributed to the down second half. Could keep him at second in case one of McLain, Marte or Elly gets hurt or struggles out of the gate next season
Matt
10:08
What about a possible Sonny Gray reunion? He's a free agent and liked playing for the Reds. I loved his grit.
Anthony Franco
10:10
Yeah it makes a lot of sense. It'd require the largest free agent deal they've given out in a while. I think he's in the $80MM range, I know Steve Adams expects him to get nine figures. That's a bold thing to project given the way the Reds have managed payroll the last couple seasons
10:11
But he's a good starting pitcher, which is the biggest need. They have a ton of payroll room at this point and it's time to start spending again. The familiarity with him is a nice bonus. I think they should be in on Gray, just not sure they will be
Kurt
10:11
Which prospects would the front office be willing to part with in order to bring a ‘big’ return back in the form of a front line starter, etc. thanks
Anthony Franco
10:13
Trading for a true "front line starter" with multiple seasons of control probably requires a guy they wouldn't give up. Marte, McLain, someone like that. When the Reds dealt a season and a half of Luis Castillo, they got Marte and Edwin Arroyo. High-end pitching is expensive
10:14
Arroyo or Cam Collier seem like potential candidates for the next tier of arm down, though. They've got a ton of MLB infield depth. Seems more palatable to move one of those guys than, say, Rhett Lowder
Guest
10:14
Where do you think Spencer Steer will play? Defensive metrics didn’t rate him well at any position this year, do you see him sticking to one position or still being moved around like last season?
Anthony Franco
10:15
I'd rotate him through the corner outfield spots and first base. Even if the defense is just ok at those spots, you can live with it for the bat
Guest
10:15
Odds of reds paying snell and/or hader?  Man they would look good in Cincinnati red!!
Anthony Franco
10:16
Can't see it, especially Snell. They could accommodate Hader but it'd be easily their biggest FA signing ever, which probably isn't a great use of resources for a reliever
Tyler
10:17
Do you think Kenta Maeda would take a one-year deal to prove he's back? He would seem to be a nice innings eater for the young rotation
Anthony Franco
10:17
I think he's getting two years, also a chance the Twins make him a qualifying offer that he accepts
Guest
10:17
Hunter Greene is no ace.   And watching him throw straight stick fastballs are gettin old.  Would someone like the rangers part w one of their up and coming young outfielders for him and reds can work the FA market or trade blocks for a starter?
Travis Myers
10:18
Do we trade Lodolo or Green? Simply because neither can stay healthy for a full season.
Anthony Franco
10:20
Tough time to sell either of those guys. I share the first questioner's concern about Greene's fastball shape -- think he's always going to be homer-prone, especially in that park -- but they're controllable mid-rotation arms on a team that needs them
Ryan
10:20
What outfielder do you see the Reds go after? Do they try to reunite with Hunter Renfroe after he had a down year or do they try to go a bit higher end like Canha or Pederson?
Anthony Franco
10:20
Canha could work if they aim a little higher than a platoon guy for the corner OF. I don't think Joc's a great fit as a left-handed platoon DH on a team that already has Benson and Fraley
Blue Man Group
10:21
If Joey Votto retires right now, is he a hall of famer?
Anthony Franco
10:21
I think he gets in, yeah. I'd vote for him if I had a ballot
JOHN
10:21
Whats the potential of Elly, becoming a right fielder?   It seems like a natural move to keep McClain at SS, Marte at 3rd and India 2B.   Also, With very little money on the books.   Whats the chances of signing a stud pitcher?
Anthony Franco
10:22
I could see this happening a few years down the line but Elly's biggest immediate MLB value is that he can play the left side of the infield well enough
10:24
The strikeouts become a lot more concerning if he's in a corner outfield spot. The average right fielder hit .250/.322/.432 last season. Elly would need a pretty significant step forward in the contact skills to even get to that level by next season
Yellow
10:24
Jacob  Hurtubise hit .390/.537/.460/.997 in 136 AAA plate appearances. Can think of anyone successful in MLB with such a profile? A strictly 0 power hitter with an extreme contact rate?
Anthony Franco
10:25
Yeah this is a crazy one. Hurtubise has been doing this since college and he keeps it up even as the pitching gets better
10:26
Not a profile you really see in the majors though, especially in left field. Myles Straw has made a living as a low-end regular with 20 power, but that's in large part because he's an elite defensive center fielder
Guest
10:27
The problem for the Reds was injuries, not lack of talent with their pitching.  As it stands now, they have quite a competition for starters next year with players on the roster.  Lodolo, Green, Ashcraft
Anthony Franco
10:27
If you could guarantee that a starting five of Abbott, Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft and Williamson would stay healthy, it'd be an above-average rotation
10:28
But that never happens. There are usually one or two teams per years that get through a season relying on even six or seven starters. You need to be seven or eight deep in serviceable starters or you'll burn through it really quickly
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