JotCast | PHR Live Chat: 9/3/25

PHR Live Chat: 9/3/25

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Josh Erickson

1:58

Hi all, I'll start with questions in a couple of minutes!

1:59

As a reminder, if you submit multiple questions, I'm only going to be able to get to one or two of them.

Phil

2:00

So it looks like the Sabres are rolling with what they have. What percentage chance do you give them to make the playoffs as currently constructed and is there one realistic move they could make that would raise those chances? Thanks!

Josh Erickson

2:02

Based on the total value they added and subtracted plus age-related improvement from their younger players... I think they're set up well to be marginally better than last year. The problem is they finished with 79 points, so marginally better isn't enough for a playoff berth. I'd say around 20 percent. Biggest hole is a top-six forward. If they can pull a Mason McTavish trade out of thin air, that would boost things. I like the reworked defense. Goaltending is high-ceiling, low-floor.

RFA

2:02

Kaiser is taking a while to sign as a RFA. With the depth on LD for Chicago, do you think he may be traded ?

Josh Erickson

2:05

Potentially, but I think they'd prefer to get him signed, and I think the pathway to a roster spot is easier than it looks. Nolan Allan and Ethan Del Mastro are both still waiver-exempt. I don't think Louis Crevier is anything special. You can roll four lefties (Vlasic, Kaiser, Korchinski, and one of Allan/EDM) with Levshunov/Murphy/Rinzel pretty set in stone on the right. Chicago is probably holding out hope he'll take a two-way deal. I think he wants greater assurance that he'll be given a fair shake in camp. The Blackhawks have the luxury of time, and they'd be smart to use it and get Kaiser NHL reps early to either decide he's a part of their future or boost his trade value.

Logjam

2:06

I guess 2 part, one micro and leads to bigger question for macro. Micro: I see 7 Forwards fighting for essentially one slot in training camp for the Capitals. Who gets it, and who gets nacho duty and who goes to Hershey or gets waived: Milano, Frank, Christall, Trineyev, Lapierre, Ilya Protas, Miroshienko (I assume Sourdif guaranteed a job since the Caps for some reason gave up a 2nd rounder for him)

Josh Erickson

2:10

I think you're right on the Sourdif bit. I think you can comfortably take Ilya Protas and Bogdan Trineyev out of the conversation as well. There's a lot of competition, as you mention. Protas' lack of professional experience and Trineyev's lack of offense in the AHL will essentially write them off, at least to start the season. That leaves that 3LW spot open, as you imply, with one or two press box options depending on whether they decide to carry 7 or 8 D (they really should waive Dylan McIlrath and carry 14 F, but whatever).

Best case scenario, that's three spots, and two of the other guys you mention are gone. Most likely, I think that's Andrew Cristall getting time to adjust to the pro game in Hershey and Ethen Frank landing on waivers. Nothing against Frank, I'm just not sure he has much more to offer than what he's displayed. He's going to be 28 this season. I don't see the point in keeping him on the roster when you've got a much more experienced extra F in Sonny Milano.

Ac-avs

2:10

Lehkonen- MacKinnon- Necas, Landeskog- Nelson- Nichushkin, Colton- Drury- Olofsson, Kelly- Bardakov- Kiviranta——- LOC on LTIR to start the year. Will we be making anymore depth signings? Roslovic still available, Kuznetsov ??? on a PTO or 1 year +bonus deal (don’t quite love him hanging with the Chu Chu train though, if both men don’t have the substance abuse in check) Fabbri? Kostin? Or are we set and ready to roll with the Russian on our 4th line after Bednar sees him in camp. This roster is stacked right now and healthy

Josh Erickson

2:13

I doubt there will be any more depth signings. There's a lot of other NHL-serviceable pieces in the organization – that last doesn't include Daniil Gushchin, for example – for cheaper than what a UFA signing like Roslovic would cost. They also don't really have the cap space at this stage ($1.33MM left) and O'Connor won't be out the whole year, so his LTIR placement doesn't really mean anything long term. I don't see a fourth-line fit for Kuznetsov so I don't think he lands in Colorado. I could see a Kostin-type signing for another extra forward, but that's pretty much it. If they want to make another free agent add and feel as though they have the space to do so, Matt Grzelcyk would be a boost as they're short on left-shot D.

At least at the NHL level, haha. How'd it end up that all the Avs' NHL D except for Toews/Girard are righties but they only have one righty ticketed for the minors?

draft moves

2:15

Which makes less sense by the Blackhawks: trading the 5th pick in the 7th round of 2025 for Florida's 7th round pick in 2026 or drafting Parker Holmes in the 4th round ? Thanks

Josh Erickson

2:17

Haha. For practical purposes, seventh-round picks are of equal value no matter where they fall in the draft order. I'd doubt most players still available at that stage are on more than two or three teams' draft lists. That's not really a miss or a weird move. Using a pick on a forward who has one point in 21 career OHL games and only had 10 points in 51 junior 'A' games the year prior, though... yikes

Logjam 2

2:17

Is there enough talent to field a competitive expansion team? There seem to be a lot of good talent still unsigned. NO #1 or #2 C or D but lots of general talent.

Josh Erickson

2:21

I'm all for growing the game. I haven't been a huge proponent of the talent dilution argument in the past, at least as 30 expanded to 32. I don't think the NHL should be the first of the Big Four leagues to test the water in expanding past that number, though. There's a reason everyone else has 30 or 32. At some point, you are going to dilute the pool. I don't think the league with the least viewership of the four can be the one to afford to take the risk in figuring out what happens operationally once you get to 34 or 36.

Money talks, though. The league is seeing unprecedented financial growth. It makes sense they want to capitalize on it. But be aware that's the primary motivation. The lack of big free agent deals this summer and teams' propensity to retain their own talent given the newfound spending flexibility is evidence, at least to me, that teams want to retain the depth they had because it's getting harder to find quality options that fit their system.

Berkly Catton

2:22

What is the percent chance you would give him of making the Kraken roster out of camp this year?

Josh Erickson

2:25

Depends entirely on if they want to use him on the wing, which I have no solid read into. There's really no mobility for him to see time at center to start the year unless there's an injury. Beniers, Stephenson, Wright, and Gaudreau are locked in.

Even then, I don't like his chances. Their top nine wings are set. None of Schwartz, Kakko, McCann, Eberle, Marchment, or Tolvanen should or will be playing on the fourth line. Kartye and Nyman/Hayden's wing spots are the ones up for grabs. I don't think it does Seattle or Catton any service for him to start there. Unfortunately, given the way this AHL-CHL agreement alteration news is trending, I imagine it'll be back to juniors for Catton unless an injury opens up a job.

Bruins

2:26

Do you think Soderstrom can avoid returning to the AHL by beating out Peeke for the 3rd RD pair when the Bruins extended Jokiharju on 6/30 right before he became a UFA (after Soderstrom had signed a 2 way deal) ?

Josh Erickson

2:28

It would take some shuffling of the pairs, but I could see it. Remember he'd have to essentially beat out Jordan Harris, too. I don't think Soderstrom is strong enough defensively to be a good fit on the third pairing alongside Mason Lohrei. If they were to bump Lohrei up with Charlie McAvoy and have Hampus Lindholm and Nikita Zadorov as the lefties on the second and third pairings, I could see Jokiharju slotting in with Lindholm and Soderstrom slotting in with Zadorov while Peeke or Harris sits in the press box.

DStars

2:30

Could you Leonard playing top 6 minutes out of the gate for Washington? Already has played in a few playoff games

Josh Erickson

2:32

Not really. Aliaksei Protas and Tom Wilson were just so effective in those RW roles last year that I don't think it makes much sense to mess with a good thing. Leonard didn't look terribly confident to me in his NHL time last season, either, although I'm sure a full offseason to prepare, knowing what the environment is like, is beneficial. Regardless, I think a third-line role for him out of the gate is best for everyone involved.

DStars

2:33

Who do you think is the likeliest head coach to get fired first?

Josh Erickson

2:34

Andrew Brunette. Nashville's gonna be hungry after the commitments they've made. A similar start to last year just can't happen again. I'm surprised he got as long a leash as he did.

Trades

2:34

Which order are these DMen moved. Andersson, Hamilton, Karlsson and Q. Hughes

Josh Erickson

2:37

Andersson, then Karlsson, then Hamilton, then Hughes. Let me add that I don't think Quinn is getting moved. Put me in the "nothing ever happens" camp. Marner's departure was foreseeable from a mile away and Toronto has another star RW to fill in his shoes. Hughes is a captain, Vancouver's incredibly invested in him, and the fact that they managed to keep Boeser while extending Demko and Garland as well shows the internal messaging this offseason has been quite strong. People are committing. They have plenty of time to talk about a deal. I think he's a Canuck for life.

Andersson could be gone tomorrow, for all I know. Karlsson... trade deadline. Hamilton probably stays a Devil for the season and they re-evaluate next summer based on how L. Hughes' season goes and where Simon Nemec and Seamus Casey are in their development.

Landyn

2:40

Does Sam Dickinson make ONR for the Sharks?

Josh Erickson

2:42

He's... He's gotta. I wonder if they step up their efforts to shop Mario Ferraro. I imagine they don't want to move him until they can add a bit more salary. I think everyone realizes Dickinson simply can't go back to juniors, though. There's no encore for what he did last year.

Landyn

2:42

Tampa has failed to make it very far in the playoffs the past few seasons, could they move a player like Nick Paul to a team looking for a 2C to add to their playoff push?

Josh Erickson

2:43

Don't think there's a universe in which that happens. They've already done a fair amount of roster overhaul in the past few months and refreshed their depth in free agency. Having full seasons of Bjorkstrand and Gourde will help.

And is there really any shame in losing to the eventual Cup champions two years in a row?

Army

2:44

Would it be reasonable for the Blues to sign Matt Grzelcyk to say a couple years (maybe one or two) at a reasonable price to play with Mailloux on that 3rd pairing instead of Tucker? Tucker plays 7th defenseman and then Kessel gets sent down or you roll with 8 defenders.

Josh Erickson

2:46

I don't see the fit. He's not taking top four minutes from Broberg or Fowler, and I think he's just about the worst possible partner for Logan Mailloux. He needs an anchor. Grzelcyk isn't that. We might get some all-time bad defensive results out of those two if they're put together.

I like Tucker as a partner for Mailloux in that regard. Unless you can upgrade on him with a player who has a similar archetype, I don't think there's a move that should be made.

Magnus

2:48

Lets say a player has a 10-teams NMC. When does the player have to decide thoose teams, and how often can he change? And Who knows about it?

Josh Erickson

2:50

I know it's not a fun answer, but the answer is it depends. Those terms can all be defined in the scope of the contract. Some NTCs update at the beginning of the new league year, some update March 1 before the deadline, some can be modified whenever. It's up to the team and player to decide those specifics in negotiations.

It's rare, but the scope of NTCs can also change in-season. I think Evander Kane's dropped from like 15 to 10 teams in February last year or something like that.

Mike

2:50

Who do you think will be the top 5 players that will be targeted at the trade deadline?

Josh Erickson

2:52

You can write in Pittsburgh's trio of Karlsson, Rakell, and Rust if they're still in a Penguins uniform by then. I don't think Rasmus Andersson stays a Flame that long so I'll come up with two others. If the Rangers are out of the picture again... I see no reason why they wouldn't shop Artemi Panarin. Same with Seattle and their pending UFAs (Schwartz, Marchment, etc.)

Army

2:54

Binnington a Blue For Life?

Josh Erickson

2:54

Too early to say that, but for the foreseeable future, yes. He's been the guy before. They're still in playoff contention and likely will be for a bit here. He's the cult hero behind the franchise's only championship. There's not a lot of reason to move on from him.

Phanatic

2:55

Flyers last five years have been horrible [25, 25, 31, 38, and 33 wins] is this season the last of the streak? Is Comcast Spectacor ownership structure the ultimate problem? How many teams are corporate owned with a the company's CEO serving as the "Governor"? Is there a model that works best to support success?

Josh Erickson

2:57

I don't see a ton of forward progress, no. The forward moves were interesting, I'll give them that. They should be more fun to watch. Maybe in the 85-point range. But the defense just isn't up to par and the goaltending... Vladar is better than Fedotov and Kolosov, but he's not the answer. I could see like 10-12 point improvement. Unfortunately, that won't be enough.

I'm not going to pretend to know enough about front office dynamics to answer the back half of your question

Jet Greaves Bench Chair

2:57

How many times will he sit on me in games before he gets the net full time? Or will I have to watch Elvis and his 890 save percentage for most of the season.

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