JotCast | PHR Live Chat: 9/25/24

PHR Live Chat: 9/25/24

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Josh Erickson

1:57

Hey everyone! We'll get started in a few.

Zoe27

2:00

Do you think Ryan Graves will be put on waivers or cut entirely from the Penguins?

Josh Erickson

2:02

There's no chance of that happening, no.

Yeah, he'd likely clear waivers. If they assign him to the minors, it's only minimal cap relief. You can only bury up to $1.15MM of a player's cap hit in the AHL. He'd still cost $3.35MM to play in the minors, essentially, which I'd argue is worse value than still getting NHL games out of him at $4.5MM – even if he's overpaid.

Also, NHL players can't just be cut. The only options for something like that are a buyout during a designated offseason window or a mutual termination, and Graves wouldn't walk away from the $20MM+ he's still owed on his contract.

dji

2:03

I'm seeing all these minor injuries to players is that normal this time of year or is it worse this year?

Josh Erickson

2:04

Par for the course. It's also worth keeping in mind that teams are rightfully being more cautious with minor injuries than they would in the regular season. There's no reason for anybody to play through anything for an exhibition game. So teams and players are more okay with missing games/practices/handing out official injury designations during training camp than during the season.

gmm8811

2:04

If Phil Kessel plays this year, does his ironman streak continue or is it now officially over?

Josh Erickson

2:06

As long as he remains a free agent and doesn't file retirement paperwork, yes, his ironman streak is still active! It only comes to an end if he files retirement paperwork or he doesn't play in a regular-season game that he's rostered for. Even if he doesn't land somewhere until mid-season, I'd imagine a team will sign him to a PTO first to allow him to practice/get back to game speed without having to sit out games as a healthy scratch, ending his streak.

I also know breaking that streak isn't a concern for him – he already has the record and he just wants to play. I don't think it'll be a deciding factor in where he ends up.

The Brink

2:07

Will the Wild carry 3 Goalies? Will they replace Boldy?

Josh Erickson

2:09

They'll carry three goalies, yeah. They've already got a full complement of AHL guys – Troy Grosenick and Samuel Hlavaj under NHL contract, and Dylan Ferguson and Kyle McClellan under contract with Iowa. It's clear they don't anticipate Wallstedt heading back down.

And no, Boldy won't miss enough time to warrant a truly notable corresponding roster move. He may not even be out for their regular-season opener.

DevilShark

2:09

Which teams who have enjoyed a lot of recent success will see their windows closing this season and take a step back?

Josh Erickson

2:14

The Stars will still make the playoffs, but I imagine they take a step back. They're not a true contender in my eyes – at least not right now – with a RD depth chart of Dumba, Lyubushkin, Lundkvist, and Smith. I wouldn't say their window is closing, though, not with so many quality U-25 players and prospects still yet to reach the NHL.

Carolina's window is starting to get tight, IMO. They have a lot of quality young pieces coming too, but their projections are more uncertain. Like Dallas, I think this year will be a tough transition with so many pieces lost to UFA.

Bruins' window will slam shut this year if Swayman misses any considerable length of time. I have no clue what the Kings are doing with this core – they may not be a playoff team, and that's an atrocious time in the "rebuild" to take a step back. Is this their peak? Do they have enough talent accumulated to just do a retool around Byfield/Clarke? They're in a weird spot.

Vegas is the easy answer here. High-ceiling but injury-prone goalie tandem

2:15

And depth scoring, arguably the biggest part of their identity as a franchise thus far, will be hard to come by this year. Will be interesting to see how they adjust.

Darrell73

2:15

It's early but who would be your front runner for rookie of the year celebrini or someone else and who would you pick as a dark horse to make the playoffs in each conference

Josh Erickson

2:17

I've said this before, but I'd bank on Michkov to start for Calder. He's just going to be in a better situation with better teammates and he's already spent two full seasons in a professional league.

2:22

As for the playoff dark horses – East is hard to say. Can you consider the Isles a dark horse? They made it last year, but only with 94 points. I think they've addressed some holes and could be a safer playoff pick.

If we're just interpreting that as teams that missed last season, man, it's gotta be Buffalo, right? That bottom six is just gonna be tough as hell to play against. Malenstyn-Lafferty-Aube-Kubel is already one of my favorite fourth lines in the league and the regular season hasn't even started.

West, no matter how you slice it, it's Utah. A lot of question marks, but that's the point of a dark horse, isn't it? If Sergachev can even improve just marginally away from the puck, that's a playoff-caliber defense. Offense is already playoff-caliber, IMO. The Yotes finished 16th in scoring last season and Guenther only played half the year.

Get it done

2:23

How do you see the Igor Shesterkin contract negotiations playing out? He's said he won't work on a new contact during season. If they can't sign him before Oct 9th what happens? They can't trade him and they can't let him walk for nothing either.

Josh Erickson

2:25

I wouldn't be worried at all. Reports over the past couple of days already indicate the Rangers are willing to pay him over Price's $10.5MM cap hit and make him the highest-paid goalie in NHL history. If that's a starting point, I'm sure they'll find a common ground.

2:26

He's been so consistent, I'm not sure how much Shesterkin can boost his value this season over what it already is. If they're reasonably close on a deal before the start of the regular season but it's not quite done, I wouldn't lose sleep over waiting to April/May to put pen to paper. Relationship is amicable and both sides want it done.

I'd put the risk of him walking at less than 10%.

DevilShark

2:26

Projection for Holtz this season? Where does he play in the lineup and how does he produce?

Josh Erickson

2:27

Camp rushes indicate to me that he'll start the season as 3LW. Luckily for him, Vegas is going with the "spread everybody out to forget the fact that we lost Marchessault and Amadio" approach, which means he'll have Tomas Hertl as his centerman.

2:30

Dude managed 112 SOG last year while averaging 11:38 per game. I think his shooting percentage comes down a little. I wouldn't bank on him hitting 20 goals, but I wouldn't expect a step back from 16. Somewhere in that 17-20 range seems about right. His assist total should climb wayyyy up if he's really seeing time with Hertl at EV. Believe he'll be getting PP2 time as well to start. I'd guess 18-20--38 if he stays healthy, and I feel that may be a bit conservative.

Jacob

2:30

The Pittsburgh Penguins will trade Ryan graves

Josh Erickson

2:30

Doubt it. They're not prepared to give up the assets it'll take to unload his contract on somebody.

2:31

Also, there's five years left on a six year deal, people! Let's take a breath and at least give the guy a chance, lol. Reports of his demise this early on in the deal are likely greatly exaggerated.

Sharkie

2:31

Over/Under: Sharks win 30 games.

Minnesnowta

2:32

Over/under 10 starts for Jesper wallstedt this year?

Josh Erickson

2:32

Sorry, internet gave out for a sec!

2:33

@Sharkie - smash the under. The Blackhawks won 23 games last year with better defense and goaltending than the Sharks have now. I thought Blackwood was pretty admirable for SJ last year, but that defense is still something out of a horror film. Ferraro-Ceci top pair??

2:34

@Minnesnowta - take the over here. I'd imagine it ends up being a 30-30-20 split, assuming everyone stays healthy. I'd think Fleury is the No. 3 in that scenario – after all, he'll be 40 in November.

The Brink

2:35

Which are your Top 5 remaining UFAs and where do you see them fit in?

Josh Erickson

2:37

I'm gonna assume you don't want me to include PTOs here, nor players who are signed overseas/AHL. In that case, it's a pretty slim list.

Justin Schultz
Kevin Shattenkirk
Phil Kessel
Mark Giordano
Cal Clutterbuck

In that order.

2:39

I'd like to see Justin Schultz in Dallas. They really need RD help, as I said earlier. Wonder if Winnipeg would take a swing on either him or Shattenkirk now with Heinola's long-term absence.

2:41

Kessel... man. He's a toughie. As I said, he's fine to take a No. 13 forward role somewhere. He just wants to play. Columbus probably has another spot open. Pittsburgh... I'd love to see it, but I'm not sure that I can. Too many other roster hopefuls for him to contend with (Puljujarvi, Puustinen, McGroarty, Bemstrom, Poulin, etc.)

2:43

Giordano could be pretty much anywhere as an extra D. I could see Clutterbuck maybe ending up in TB... they lost Austin Watson.

Free Agents

2:46

Where will Justin Schultz and Kevin Shattenkirk sign now that Kevin Lankinen and James van Riemsdyk have signed with new teams? Bonus question: Will Justin Schultz and Kevin Shattenkirk sign PTOs or contracts?

Josh Erickson

2:47

To answer your bonus question! Contracts for both. PTO for Phil the Thrill.

HockeyTalk

2:47

Two-part Q: 1) Any chance Conor Geekie makes the opening night roster? He's looked really good so far, but they don't need to rush him. 2) Feel like if the answer to #1 is yes, best place to start him off is with Hagel-Cirelli and have him play on the wing, 2 terrific two-way players and even-strength linemates who can shelter him a bit as he breaks in. Thoughts?

Josh Erickson

2:48

There's plenty of opportunity for him, absolutely. I'm not sure it's the best thing for his development, but I'm not sure what Mitchell Chaffee or Jesse Ylönen do that warrants them needing to be in the lineup every night. Geekie can easily take one of those spots, and I'm with you, I'd like to see him in that 2RW spot with Hagel and Cirelli. Allows Cam Atkinson to slide down to a much more comfortable bottom-six role.

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