JotCast | PHR Live Chat: 9/17/25

PHR Live Chat: 9/17/25

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Josh Erickson

1:42

Hi all, I'll begin with questions at the top of the hour!

1:47

Also, trying something new today with embedding the chat on the PHR site. If this is causing issues for you, please let me know here or in the comment section of that article.

2:00

Alright, let's get started

(Great deal for the Flames on Backlund, by the way)

DStars

2:00

What do you think Vegas will have to do to get back under the cap?

Josh Erickson

2:02

They're actually good to go. The -$7.64MM cap space figure on PuckPedia is a tad misleading. Their exceedance is less than 10% of the cap, so they don't need to use offseason LTIR. Pietrangelo makes $8.8MM. He's ruled out for the season, so the new LTIR rules don't apply to them. There are two ways of maximizing LTIR relief at the beginning of the season -- either get as close to $0 in cap space as possible, or try to exceed the cap by exactly the amount of the injured player. They can take the latter route with Pietrangelo, then send guys down. The downside to doing it that way is they essentially operate with very little flexibility throughout the season since they can't accrue space, but it's what they have to do.

They still have Alex Holtz unsigned. I'd expect them to sign him to a contract with an AAV suspiciously similar to the difference between their current cap overage and Pietrangelo's $8.8MM cap hit.

DStars

2:02

what do you think the point projection ceiling for Ivan Demidov could be?

Josh Erickson

2:03

He and Michkov had similar platform years in the KHL. The 60-70 point range feels right for Demidov.

NYR

2:03

If you were NYR would you have used the 2025 lottery #1 pick or saved the #1 pick for 2026 when you may draft later, but in a stronger draft ?

Josh Erickson

2:05

Even if the Rangers are picking in the 20-25 range next year, which we can agree is an optimistic scenario, I think that's a better pick than 12th overall was in 2025. They absolutely made the right call to let Pittsburgh have this year's pick and keep the 2026 selection.

Bill Guerin

2:05

If I have to trade KK, who would even be able to acquire him, pay him $16m/year, and give me back a palatable package? Ignore the NTC aspect.

Josh Erickson

2:09

I was lightly digging around this the other day. I came across the Lightning. I'm not sure about the trade return (would they want to part ways with Guentzel for a 1LW upgrade? and would he waive NMC?). But they actually have the cap space to do it. $16MM for Kaprizov in 2026-27 would still leave them with nearly $12MM to fill up five other roster spots, and that's assuming they don't ship anyone off the roster. They could straight-up target him in free agency and be successful.

In reality, I think the only team that can really put together a compelling *trade* offer and make an extension work is the Hurricanes. Likely would take two of Svechnikov/Jarvis/Blake/Stankoven, plus picks (of which they have plenty).

Mike dickinson

2:10

The Hurricanes can’t going into the season with Kotkaniemi as 2c, can they? I’d rather have Roslovic!

Josh Erickson

2:11

As far as I'm aware, they are. They don't have anything lined up at the moment. I wonder if they give Logan Stankoven some reps down the middle. He played some center in juniors (and some for Dallas last year as well).

Schwa

2:12

Thoughts on the new NYR captaincy decision?

Josh Erickson

2:14

Can I answer this without answering it? It's always a great sign when your chosen bastion of leadership was traded less than 12 months ago, primarily because of his inability to coexist in an environment with other star talent.

That's not to solely place blame on J.T. for the rift between him and Elias Pettersson, but you would hope a captain can manage that kind of conflict, not be a part of it himself.

prospect

2:14

Is Ryan Mast in a few years possibly a slightly better version of Louis Crevier as a big 6/7 RHD ? Does being a former d pairing with Del Mastro at Sarnia help him ?

Josh Erickson

2:16

I thought he was older than he was. Yeah, at 22, he's still got some runway ahead of him, especially as a shutdown piece. He showed better offensive instincts in juniors than Crevier did. Long-term, yes, I'd argue he could be more valuable, but it's worth noting Crevier had already made an NHL opportunity for himself at the same age (albeit in a much weaker system).

Schwa

2:17

Also, will Artemi Panarin be a Ranger come April 2026?

Josh Erickson

2:20

I'll say no. I think the Rangers are a wild-card team at best. Knowing that re-signing him anyway probably isn't the best option given his age – they'd be better off devoting those resources elsewhere – is this the year to keep him as an own rental?

Blue seats

2:21

I Y O, What is a realistic finish for rangers this year. And could you see a big trade at deadline or before. Reading all this Kaprizov trade scenarios, any way this happens, lol.

Josh Erickson

2:22

In the 90-point range. I don't think they're good or bad enough to warrant a big in-season move. The more significant retooling of this roster will wait until next summer. I don't think they're in any place to surrender the trade assets it would take to acquire Kaprizov – and I don't think the Wild are listening to offers unless they absolutely have to – but they could compete for him on the open market.

Connor Ingram

2:24

Prediction for where he lands?

Josh Erickson

2:26

His availability is enough of a concern that the teams eyeing him are ones with backup uncertainty, not starter uncertainty. I could see him as a No. 2 in Calgary to Dustin Wolf. Neither Devin Cooley or Ivan Prosvetov inspire a ton of confidence as full-time backup options. Seattle would make sense if they decide to bury Grubauer in the minors, although they did already sign Matt Murray. The Wild could be interested if Jesper Wallstedt struggles in camp.

Jackets

2:27

What does Waddelll expect to get for Chinakov when the F is a malcontent who wants out ? As you noted, Reichel for him would be a fair swap of change of scenery 1st rounders, but have heard rumors of who Waddell is pursuing in return ? Thanks.

Josh Erickson

2:28

Chinakhov has reported to camp. He's indicated he feels the Blue Jackets are trying to honor his trade request in good faith. That means there isn't a whole lot of urgency for Waddell to get this done because he will continue to report and play for them until a deal gets across the finish line. How long that olive branch from Chinakhov continues to be extended remains to be seen. I would imagine Waddell is hoping to use him as a trade chip for a bigger pickup, not as pure change-of-scenery fodder.

MikeJ

2:28

What is up with Jack Roslovic?
Is there no pllace for him, or he's just looking for too much money?

Josh Erickson

2:31

I don't know, man. Not seeing him settle for a PTO yet when Matt Grzelcyk has is a little unexplainable.

Anthony Stolarz

2:31

Sounds like an extension with the Leafs could come soon. I feel like the AAV will be higher than people think. I know there's a lack of track record/health concerns, but on a rate basis Stoly is a top goalie in the league. That's gotta be worth north of $5MM per year, no?

Josh Erickson

2:32

Everything I've seen in the past few days indicates the opposite (a little under $5MM on a three or four-year deal. The Leafs have the luxury of Joseph Woll. Yes, he's injury-prone, but so is Stolarz. They can afford to set their price and let him walk if he doesn't like it.

Kuntzebrink

2:33

Is a Sebastian Aho for Kirill Kaprizov Swap possible?

Josh Erickson

2:33

Nope. The Hurricanes don't have the center depth to sustain Aho's loss without getting a top-end center back in kind.

Rags Fan

2:33

Does Kuznetsov make sense for the Rangers? Not that I've seen or heard anything.... and what do you think they Rangers bottom 6 looks like?

Josh Erickson

2:35

It's funny you mention that. I was talking with Josh Cybulski as he put together the Kuznetsov piece we published today, and I told him the Rangers were one of the only places I could think of that made sense for him. He wouldn't be completely buried. He'd surely slot in as their third-line center. While certainly imperfect, he's a much more capable option than Jonny Brodzinski or Juuso Parssinen. If they end up having someone like Gabe Perreault or Brennan Othmann in a third-line role, playing them with Kuznetsov gives them a more offensively capable linemate.

SpeakOfTheDevils

2:35

What do you see ultimately happening with Luke Hughes contract?

Troy

2:36

With the looming Luke Hughes contract extension coming, what does Fitzgerald do next? Stand pat with the lineup and use LTIR, trade a player like Palat, or is Hamilton the guy who may bring back the best return

Josh Erickson

2:38

I still think it's long-term in the end. Probably in the low $8MM range annually. Obviously, that puts them over the cap for this year. If Kovacevic is going to miss at least 10 games/24 days to start the season, they can kick the can down the road, but if not, they need to make a cap-clearing move immediately. There's been so much talk about Palat that if they could have moved him, they would have already. They risk needing to attach a significant asset to dump him or trade a mid-tier salary (Siegenthaler, Mercer, Glass, etc.) to get back under. I don't think the market is there for Dougie Hamilton yet, either; three years left on the deal probably scares some teams off

Happy Birthday Ovie!

2:40

What do you predict for Ryan Leonard's rookie season. End of year stat line?

Josh Erickson

2:41

25-20--45

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