JotCast | PHR Live Chat: 8/7/24

PHR Live Chat: 8/7/24

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Josh Erickson

1:57

Hey everyone! Plenty in the queue already. I'll starting going through questions in a few minutes.

biker4509

2:00

What is the best way for oilers to get under the cap? And what do u think draisaitls new contract will look like once across the finish line?

Josh Erickson

2:01

Edmonton seemingly spent a bunch this offseason, had arguably one of the best summers of any team, and to think they'd be perfectly fine cap-wise without that Connor Brown bonus overage!

2:02

But yeah, they're a few hundred thousand bucks over and are still waiting on new deals for Broberg and Holloway. Neither will be expensive, but it's still a decent chunk of change that will require moving a sizable cap hit in order to have a prayer at having in-season roster flexibility.

2:03

Nurse is the most overpaid player on the team for sure, but he'll be difficult to move. Best way would be to shed Evander Kane, who's got two years left at $5.125MM and has been made expendable with the additions of Viktor Arvidsson and Jeff Skinner. But he has a no-movement clause, and it's hard to imagine him waiving it considering he'd be going from playing with McDavid to playing for a rebuilder taking on bloated contracts.

2:04

So for that reason, it'll almost definitely be Cody Ceci and his $3.25MM cap hit out the door. He's a pending UFA and is cheaper, so won't be as costly to move. Most they'd need to attach is a second-round pick a la Jake Walman, and if they play their cards right, they may be able to get actual value for him.

2:05

And as for Draisaitl, I think the longer this drags on, the AAV will come down a bit. I was thinking it would come in the $13MM range, but as we venture into August, I think there's a better chance of the cap hit being in the high 12s. Eight-year term, of course.

RFAs

2:05

What will Thomas Harley, Matthew Beniers, and Jeremy Swayman get on their next contracts?

Josh Erickson

2:07

Obviously, precedent tells us that shorter-term deals are likely for all three. I think Harley's is the easiest to predict, I'd imagine something around three years and $5MM AAV. Dallas can make that work under the cap.

2:09

Swayman... gosh. For a guy who's never made 50+ appearances in a season, I struggle to see him getting the lofty predictions that some have been commenting recently. Yes, he's a top 10 goalie in the world, but goalies who have never been "the guy" never get paid top dollar. I see this being a short-term deal that walks him to UFA (three years, 28yo upon expiry?) that will come in cheaper than expected for now, but they'll need to shell out in a few summers to keep him around.

2:10

Beniers will be a bridge at this point, and I could see something as short as a two-year prove-it deal. He'll still be only 23 at the end of that one with the potential for a solid long-term deal throughout his prime. $5MM per on that one too? Anything more than that wouldn't leave them with very much cap space.

Robrob

2:10

Laine with 4.35M Merzlikens with 1.65M retension for Gustavsson Gaudreau Johansson a 2026 2nd round pick and one of Lambos, Kumpulainen, or Hunter Haight.
CBJ gets Gustavsson at the same price as Merzlikens and gets a pick and a prospect for the retension.
Fair trade or not?
Getting Laine and Merzlikens out and Gustavsson for a number 1 goalie

Josh Erickson

2:12

I'm not gonna check your math, but that seems to be pretty much money-in, money-out on quick glance.

2:14

Gaudreau's a salary dump for sure, but it's one Columbus would likely be interested in, given his history with Evason. I'd say the framework there is solid if something like this were to somehow cross the finish line between the two teams, and Merzlikins wouldn't need to be their starter long-term anyways. Wallstedt will be their 1A/starter for the last two years of that deal, imo.

2:15

I think it's still a bit too much for Minnesota to give up given Merzlikins likely has negative trade value right now, even with retention. But it's not far off.

Bluejackets

2:15

Do you guys think in the late offseason the Tampa bay lightning will add a more veteran like goaltender over Johansson lr stick with vasilasky and johnanseen?

Josh Erickson

2:16

Kevin Lankinen would be an upgrade there, and if he takes a one-year, $1MM deal, they could make that work cap-wise.

Ac- Avs

2:16

Toews- Makar, Girard- Manson, De Haan- Kylington, Brannstrom- Malinski, The boys are set with 8 non-waiver eligible NHL defensemen. Obviously injuries can occur to shock this depth, but if Sammy G gets put on the trade block with his $5 million, what middle six winger or 4C could they target?? LOC and Lehkonen come back after injuries and surgeries this past summer, lingering Landeskog/Nichushkin questions remain, Mittelstadt needs another solid winger to start the year with. Kovalenko gets a crack no doubt, Ritchie could play 3C if they keep him around, and Colton moves up, but the team is stacked if healthy, Chu will have his contract pro-rated down when he returns in November/December, to about $4 million, so the money is fine honestly, just seems like 1 of 49 or 42 are going to be sent packing to get more scoring up front.

Josh Erickson

2:17

Yep, it's good injury insurance, but depth like that is a luxury the cap-strapped Avs can't really afford to begin the season.

2:18

One point I want to make quickly – Nichushkin's cap hit won't get pro-rated. They'll need $6.125MM available in accumulated space when he returns from his suspension. Not sure where that's coming from.

2:19

But I do agree that leveraging Girard or Manson for an upgrade at forward is likely the way to go here. I'd wonder about Frank Vatrano from the Ducks as a middle-six option. Would save them $1.35MM in space assuming Girard is headed to Anaheim and no other roster players are changing hands.

2:20

Not sure what the Ducks would do with Girard, though. Gotta save some spots for their up-and-comers, and Girard is signed through 2027.

Worth noting – Girard has a nine-team no-trade list, while Manson has a 12-team no-trade list.

Doug

2:20

Patrick Laine has said in the past he would like to play in LA. Do you see any way this could happen? I know LA is tight on money, but with some salary retention it might work.... Thoughts? Thanks...

Josh Erickson

2:22

They'd need to dump a salary to make it work even if Columbus retained half, and there are no clear candidates there aside from players they went out of their way to acquire this summer (Jeannot, namely)

I really like the fit there, but I just don't see who they could/would be willing to move to make it work.

2:23

Not to go on a tangent, but that Edmundson contract was such an unforced error, and we're already seeing why.

DW30

2:23

Do you think the Islanders have done enough this off season to solidify themselves as a playoff contender and do you see any major roster changes coming before the start of the season ?

Josh Erickson

2:24

Nothing about this team has materially changed. Tsyplakov is a gigantic question mark (and an overrated one at that, in my personal opinion). Duclair is a true impact add, but he can't do it alone. Defense and goaltending is the same minus a solid depth guy in Aho. They were a toss-up last year and will be again this year, I'd say.

2:25

If they could find a move for Pageau or Palmieri, it would have been done by now. Only guy who may move is Wahlstrom, and I'm not sure I'd classify that as a major change considering he's only played 67 games combined over the last two seasons.

Blue seats

2:25

What can the rangers do to get over the next hurdle, and to the cup final and win it? They were definitely outplayed against florida.

Josh Erickson

2:27

Get the fancy numbers up. People talk about the Panthers moving away from an "analytics-friendly" style of play to a more gritty one in order to win, and it couldn't be further from the truth. Yes, they got more physical, but they never strayed from their identity as one of the league's best analytical darlings and top possession teams.

2:28

The Rangers were dominant last season, no question about it, but they were too special-teams dependent. The puck needs to be on their stick more often at 5v5.

2:29

I'll throw this out there – Oilers' 5v5 expected goal share last season was 58.2%, best in the league. Florida was fifth at 54%. Rangers were all the way down at 21st with a 49.3% share, per MoneyPuck.

LGD

2:29

What’s going on with Mercer? Is this a sign of a long term deal coming?

Josh Erickson

2:31

His case is so weird. There hasn't been any noise around negotiations there whatsoever, so it's hard to predict.

But since there's been no noise, I don't think there's any real discontent. If there was, I feel like it would leak. I do wonder if a long-term deal is possible here, just because he's a bit older than Beniers. 5-6 years, $5-6MM per?

2:32

I said that before I looked at their PuckPedia page. They don't quite have the room for that. So maybe like four years, $4.5-$4.75MM per

Shaun

2:32

I think Pittsburgh makes a lot of sense for Laine. What better player for a guy in his situation than to play with Crosby?

Josh Erickson

2:35

There is a definite hole in that top six. But again, they'd need to shed a contract to make it work, even if they were picking up Laine at 50% retained. Like LA, hard to pick out a candidate. Columbus won't take four years of Rakell, and guys like Hayes and Lizotte were just signed. Eller, maybe? He costs $2.45MM, has one year left and doesn't have trade protection.

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