JotCast | PHR Live Chat: 8/28/24

PHR Live Chat: 8/28/24

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Josh Erickson

1:57

Hi everyone! It looks like there are a bunch of questions in the queue already. I'll get started in a few minutes.

Kyle

2:00

With the RFAs that the Blues just picked up from Edmonton, do you see the Blues as a playoff contender now? If so, or if not, why?

Josh Erickson

2:02

Broberg and Holloway are both important adds long-term as contracts for vets like Saad and Leddy expire. I don't think they move the needle a ton this season. But I've liked what the Blues have done this summer as a whole. They largely got more efficient with how they spend their money, particularly re: Joseph and Texier.

2:03

But a bit of regression in goal from Binnington should be expected, and there are very real questions around whether Broberg is ready for the role they'll ask him to play out of the gate.

They'll be in the hunt for a bit longer than they were last season. I wouldn't be shocked if they make it, but it'll be as a wild card. Can't imagine them sneaking into the top three. They have a pretty narrow range of outcomes, I think.

Josh

2:03

What do you think will happen with Raymond and Seider in Detroit? Have heard that Raymond isn’t close.

Josh Erickson

2:04

I still think matching long-term deals in the $7MM AAV range will get across the finish line. It could very well last into training camp, but I highly doubt either will still be holding out when the regular season begins.

Nick

2:04

Point expectations for mikchov this year?

Josh Erickson

2:05

I don't think 70 is out of the question. He'll be given top-six minutes out of the gate.

2:06

That would have made him the Flyers' leading scorer last season, though, which might be a tad optimistic. I'd put him somewhere in the 55-75-point range.

2:07

He did put up 0.87 points per game last season on one of the KHL's worst teams. That's really quite impressive as a teenager in a low-scoring pro league.

Bolts Fan

2:07

First coach fired?

Josh Erickson

2:09

Really, this question should be read as "which playoff team from last season will fall short of expectations early on." I know the Kings just gave Jim Hiller a fresh deal a few months back, but they had a pretty poor offseason. Regardless of how good a coach he actually is, coaches are almost always the first casualty when a front office/ownership pulls the panic lever. I'd keep my eyes on him.

Derek Lalonde is another contender here, too. The Wings didn't make the playoffs last year, sure, but time is up for their rebuild. They need to firmly put themselves in the playoff conversation out of the gate, and if they don't, it's likely the end of Newsy's tenure in Hockeytown.

2:10

Really dark horse here? Love the guy, but Pete DeBoer. The Stars' decimated defense depth does give me concern, especially with Harley still unsigned. If there are major growing pains there, he may take the fall.

Neil from Oregon

2:10

How much is Moritz Seider worth for his RFA contract 8x8? Higher??

Josh Erickson

2:10

I wouldn't pay him that, and I don't think he'll end up commanding it.

2:11

He hasn't been done any favors by Lalonde. Dude has consistently swallowed some of the toughest minutes in the league, especially last season. It's limited what skills he can display on both sides of the puck because he's almost always needing to play catch-up when deployed at even strength.

2:12

Last season was especially difficult for him defensively. It was tough timing, given it was a contract year. It'll put a cap on his earning potential for now.

He's still 23. A six- or seven-year deal allows him to cash in again in his prime.

Troy

2:12

when do you see RFA such as Jarvis and Mercer signing deals? Do the NJD sign Pacioretty, to a PTO?

Josh Erickson

2:13

Jarvis will be the week before camp. It's close I'm sure, but Hurricanes ownership will be Hurricanes ownership and squeeze out every dime they can. I wouldn't be surprised to see Mercer drop in the coming days... if that one's still not done with a few days to go until camp, I'd be surprised.

2:14

I don't think Pacioretty will need to settle for a PTO. A report from Daily Faceoff's Frank Seravalli late last week indicated he was close to landing a deal, but that was five days ago.

https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2024/08/max-pacioretty-expected-to-sig...

2:15

I'm not sure I see a fit for him in NJ after the Tatar signing.

Francois

2:15

What does Shesterkin’s new deal look like 8x $11ish?

Josh Erickson

2:17

I don't think the media is doing the Rangers any favors here. There was a market correction after the $10MM+ AAV deals to Bobrovsky and Price were almost immediate albatrosses. Sorokin signed 8x8.25 just last year, and Hellebuyck signed 7x8.5 soon after.

2:18

Now, you can make the argument that Shesterkin has a better playoff track record than Sorokin and he's younger than Hellebuyck, likely increasing his value above them a bit. But playoff performance doesn't historically factor into deals as much as you may think. He'll cost more than those comparables for sure, if for no other reason than the cap rising. He may even hit the $10MM mark. But I think talk of a Shesterkin extension reaching all the way into the 11s or 12s is unfounded.

My prediction? Seven years, $9.75MM per.

Preds deal

2:19

I realize several Shark top prospects (Celebrini, Smith, Dickinson, Eklund) were off the table. If the Preds held out for Musty or Bystedt instead of Edstrom, do you think SJ would have accepted ?

Josh Erickson

2:20

No, I don't. I think this is a pretty fair deal. A late first-round prospect plus a Vegas pick that's likely to fall in the 15-20 range. Together, those assets equal the 11th-overall pedigree Askarov carries.

Bystedt, maybe. He and Edstrom are a little redundant in their pool, IMO. But not Musty.

Black Ace57

2:21

Do you think the Johansen situation will force some changes in how physicals are done in trades or how injuries need to be reported by players? It seems if the right procedures were in place it would have avoided this situation

Josh Erickson

2:21

I mean, we still don't really know for sure what went down. I'm sure we'll get better details after the grievance is settled, much like we did with Perry.

2:22

But, to me, this is a unique situation that isn't reflective of the norm league-wide. It's a pretty massive departure from standard protocol by either Johansen, the Flyers, or the Avalanche.

2:23

Trades have been reversed due to failed physicals before, and there's a history of that dating back at least 15-20 years. The infrastructure exists to do it. The procedures were in place, they just weren't followed by somebody.

trade candidate

2:23

Any update on Kaliyev and when he may be dealt by LAK ? Do you think a 3rd rd pick would be enough since LA has no leverage ?

Josh Erickson

2:24

Haven't heard anything concrete. That seems fair to me, although I wonder if the Kings feel like they could get more by waiting for a Nick Robertson trade to happen. Those two situations are pretty comparable, and if he fetches a second-rounder or more, L.A. would likely try and garner a similar return for Kaliyev.

other Dach

2:24

Colton Dach, like his brother, was injured a good part of last season. Has his skating improved do you know ? Do you think he can develop into a middle six power forward ?

Josh Erickson

2:26

I do. Middle-six would be a stretch for me, but I do see a path for him as a bang-and-crash third-line left-winger with a bit of a scoring touch.

He's a really interesting hybrid player. He'd fit in on a traditional grind line, but I think he'd be a more effective presence as the primary forechecker on a more scoring-oriented unit.

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