JotCast | PHR Live Chat: 8/14/24

PHR Live Chat: 8/14/24

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Josh Erickson

1:56

Hi folks! I'll start combing through the queue in a few minutes.

2:00

Okay, let's get going.

Troy

2:00

With the season rapidly approaching, my question is what is the maximum amount of cap space that can be sent to the AHL, that will not count against the cap, for this coming season?
thank you

Josh Erickson

2:01

The maximum buriable threshold is $1.15MM, as it has been for the last few seasons. The figure will always be equal to $375K above the league minimum salary, which will remain at $775K through 2025-26. So it'll remain there for next season, too.

2:02

So if you're sending down a player with a $1.5MM cap hit, they'll still cost you $350K against the cap when in the minors (= $1.5MM - $1.15MM)

UncleMike1525

2:02

Which Blackhawks that are in their UFA year do you think will be worth trading at the deadline? Hall, Anathesiou, Martinez, Smith, Maroon? Any of them? Thanks as always.

Josh Erickson

2:03

Anyone who can prove they're still an NHLer I'd imagine will be on the move. Assuming he can stay healthy, Hall would obviously garner the highest return, and they can likely move him at 50% retention ($3MM cap hit for an acquiring team) without needing to get a third-party broker involved.

Hawks still have two of their three retention slots opened, FWIW. Only one active is for Jake McCabe.

2:04

Out of everyone, I think Athanasiou and Smith would be the least likely to move. Smith I don't see having much of a role at all, and I don't think the Blackhawks' 4RW would be in demand on deadline day.

2:05

With the offer sheets issued by the Blues breaking the ice so to speak, do you think there's a chance offer sheets become more prevalent in the future?

Josh Erickson

2:06

We have this conversation every time one comes across the wire, and the answer always ends up being no. I don't see why that will change. They're hard to execute in a way that makes sense for the acquiring club.

2:07

True rebuilders don't want middle-aged RFAs, they want to draft and develop their own talent. True contenders don't have the cap space to make an offer. Middle-of-the-road teams like the Blues with a need to get younger and just enough cap space are really the only ones that can ever pull them off successfully.

2:08

If we do see them more often in the future, it'll be shorter-term pacts like the Broberg/Holloway ones. I think everyone has been pretty well scared off by how poorly the Kotkaniemi decision is panning out for the Hurricanes so far.

Landlubber

2:08

What do you think is the hold up in the Kraken's contract negotiations with Beniers? Could the Kraken be testing the waters on other additions (Laine?) or is this just a matter of haggling between the two camps?

Josh Erickson

2:11

I'm not at the point where I'm worried about a holdout yet, but I imagine there's still some pretty serious haggling going on about the AAV. I think Seattle's interest in Laine likely evaporated after the Stephenson signing. They just don't have the cap space to make it work. They've got $6.37MM remaining, per PuckPedia, and as a Calder winner who was second among Kraken forwards in ATOI last year, he'll want most if not all of that space allocated to him, whether it be a short- or long-term deal. Whether he gets it remains to be seen. I think Seattle will try to go longer-term if they're giving him a deal starting with a 6.

DW30

2:11

Do you think the Leaf’s will try to move Tavares now since he’s being stripped of the captaincy? Does a trade with some salary retention back to the Island make any sense?

Josh Erickson

2:12

No to the first one, and an incredibly emphatic no to the second. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a Tavares extension in Toronto before we see one for Marner, to be perfectly honest.

2:13

And even if the Leafs didn't want to extend him, Tavares has a full no-movement clause that he's unlikely to waive. If he did, he certainly wouldn't waive it to return to a fanbase that still hasn't forgiven him for his departure (even if it arguably worked out better for them in the end!)

King Duck

2:13

It seems like the Ducks are going to ride into the season with what they currently have. If they were to make some sort of blockbuster trade (Zegras possibly?), who do you think they would target or who could they get?

Josh Erickson

2:14

I certainly agree, seems like status quo in Anaheim for now. I really thought they'd be more active earlier on, but alas. I do think they're at the point where they should start targeting players in the 23-27yo age range. They have younger help coming/developing with McTavish, Gauthier, Sennecke, Carlsson, etc. The U-23 core doesn't need anymore touching up, imo.

2:15

Zegras is expendable, but I doubt Verbeek trades him. His value is at an all-time low, and Anaheim holds the leverage. They're better off hoping for a hot start and trading him mid-season.

2:16

They're one of the very few teams that makes any modicum of sense for Laine. He's a bit older, but I wonder if they'd be in on Nik Ehlers, too.

LGD

2:16

% chance Mercer gets offered sheet? Do you think this lights a fire under GMs to get their RFAs wrapped up?

Josh Erickson

2:18

Unless someone thinks he's worth more than $7MM/season, the Devils would absolutely match, I think. Anything over $5MM would put them over the cap, but there are moves they can make to compensate and contracts they can dump if need be. It wouldn't be prohibitively difficult. Even for a team with a ton of space, that $7MM+ AAV would be a really high-risk deal for a player coming off a healthy 33-point campaign.

2:19

I think there may be a greater sense of urgency to get lower-profile RFAs dealt with, but probably status quo for the big-name ones that will command a lot of cash. I don't see any offer sheets out there that would make sense for them.

Bolts Fan

2:19

What's left on the Lightning off season agenda? Very worried about the backup goalie situation. The entire system has zero goalie prospects. One injury and they're screwed

Josh Erickson

2:20

Yeah, but I feel like it's been that way for a while. Who among us remembers Louis Domingue's brief run as Tampa's starter?

2:21

The best backup left is Kevin Lankinen, who wouldn't cost more than $1.5MM on a one-year deal. I think I've mentioned him in here before as a good candidate for Tampa if they're uncomfortable rolling with Johansson and Tomkins as the No. 2 and 3 options again. They should be able to make Lankinen work under the cap, although it would be a tight squeeze.

Pawtucket

2:21

What sort of season does Vegas have? They lost some big pieces and didn’t replace them with much

Josh Erickson

2:23

The worries about the lack of depth scoring and a pair of injury-plagued goalies are real. But one of the league's best defenses is now even better with a full season of Noah Hanifin, who's a real difference-maker. I still expect them to make the playoffs, but given their top three forwards all have lengthy injury histories, I wouldn't be shocked if they miss.

2:25

It'll really all just be about health there. If the team doctor has a calm next few months, I imagine they'll still comfortably be in a divisional playoff spot.

oily mess

2:25

How do you think Bowman will handle the two offer sheets ? (Placing Kane on long term IR won't solve it for long). If he only matches one, which offer will he likely match ?

Josh Erickson

2:26

I'd match Holloway and let Broberg walk, which is what I think he'll do. You can be reasonably confident that Holloway will provide fair or even positive value for a $2.3MM cap hit next season if you utilize him properly. Broberg, meanwhile, may never be worth the $4.58MM AAV he's now owed, let alone next season.

He had absolutely no impact on the Oilers' regular-season success in 2023-24, playing all of 12 games or whatever it was. It's a no-brainer to let him walk.

top line

2:26

Who would you put with Bedard on the top line, both Bertuzzi and Teravainen, or just one leaving Kurashev as the other winger ?

Josh Erickson

2:28

Bedard did what he could last season, but stretching him so thin gave him some rough-looking possession numbers. I'd say it's pertinent to stick him between a pair of established wingers with a good track record of coming out on top in terms of shot quality. Maybe down the line you can reconsider sticking Kurashev up there to get him going, but I'd have Bedard mostly between the two new vets.

broken glass

2:29

Even though he hasn't panned out as a former 6th overall pick, isn't Glass worth more than the minor leaguer they received ? Why would the Preds do this and also add a draft pick ?

Josh Erickson

2:30

The trade really wasn't about Glass, it was about the Predators becoming cap-compliant. They only had about $500K in space before the move with no room for extras, and Marc Del Gaizo, Juuso Parssinen and Philip Tomasino are still RFAs. They likely weren't going to be cap-compliant on opening night without a trade or getting lucky with a waiver claim.

2:32

Glass only played in 50% of Nashville's games last season and cost $2.5MM against the cap. I thought they'd be moving a blue liner instead (perhaps Fabbro), but Glass works too.

biker4509

2:32

What the lower cap limit and what are the ducks going to do about it?

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