JotCast | PHR Live Chat: 7/30/25

PHR Live Chat: 7/30/25

Josh Erickson

1:53

Hi all, I'll begin answering questions at the top of the hour.

prospects

2:00

Thanks for the writeup on Bedard's Vanc buddy Cristall. Since goalies take longer to develop, do you think there is still hope for Gajan who the Blackhawks took 5 picks earlier ?

Josh Erickson

2:03

I'm not loving Adam Gajan's path, no. Goalies take longer to develop, yes, but that mostly refers to extended baking periods in lower leagues. Gajan has played in three different leagues in the last three years... that's a tough path to gain much traction. Consider that he's had deeply subpar results in two of those last three years, and I wouldn't bet on him being an NHL piece.

Is there still hope, though? Yes, absolutely. It's still borderline impossible to accurately pinpoint the trajectory of a 21-year-old goaltender one way or another.

2:03

Who do you think Dom James will sign with after 8/15 ? Minn or Detroit possibly ? Isn't the only difference between offers type A and B bonuses ?

Josh Erickson

2:05

No, there's still some variability in how much base salary teams can offer on an entry-level contract. Since his signing age (assuming he actually lands an NHL contract) is 23, he's locked into a two-year deal. As a late-round pick who was strong but not overpowering in college, I don't imagine he's in line for any Schedule A or B performance bonuses at all. I would bank on him signing an AHL contract somewhere... I feel like he's the type of player that someone would have traded for already if they wanted his NHL rights that badly.

DStars

2:07

Could you the Stars getting both Robertson and Harley on long term contracts? I feel like with the cap going up 8 million next year and Seguin’s contract off the books in 2 years it could happen

Josh Erickson

2:10

Let's start with the Stars' cap picture for 2026-27: $28MM in projected space with a $104MM upper limit. I doubt Robertson and Harley won't be incentivized to take discounts on long-term deals unless the Stars reach the Final this season. Let's roll with their extension projections from AFP Analytics – 8x10.75 for Harley, 8x11.5 for Robertson. That's $22.25MM combined with six other roster spots to fill. Doable? Yes, but they'd be in the same position as they were this year of likely trying to dumb a contract or two and be limited to free agent signings in the league minimum range.

Cbj4life

2:11

Will the jackets make any trades and for who

Josh Erickson

2:14

The obvious answer is yes – there's the Yegor Chinakhov trade request that's out there. It's still not really clear what the Blue Jackets have deemed an appropriate return for him, Don Waddell has said expressly he won't be moving Chinakhov for the sake of moving him. He needs fair value. Whether that's a change-of-scenery swap for someone like Toronto's Nicholas Robertson or Chicago's Lukas Reichel remains to be seen. They could also include him in a bigger package. I can see them being interested in Rasmus Andersson to add a second top-four caliber right-shot defenseman alongside Dante Fabbro, but he's picky about where he wants to extend. I think the duo of Penguins wingers (Rickard Rakell/Bryan Rust) makes sense and I think Chinakhov would be of appeal to Pittsburgh, but I doubt they're excited about trading – particularly Rust – a top-six forward to a divisional rival.

trade

2:15

If the canes signed KA Miller to an offer sheet at that salary instead of making that deal with NYR, they substitute a 3rd round pick for D prospect Morrow (and still lose a 1st and 2 nd pick). Wouldn't that have made more sense since Morrow is a n NHL ready right shot d man ? Is Miller worth what they gave up ?

Josh Erickson

2:18

That's not correct. If Carolina signed Miller to an eight-year, $60MM offer sheet, they actually would have needed to surrender four of their first-round picks in the next five drafts. AAV for offer sheet compensation purposes is calculated slightly differently than normal AAV – it's total compensation divided by years, but only up to a maximum of five years. That means for Miller, the AAV calculation for his offer sheet compensation would have been $60MM / 5 = $12MM, not his $7.5MM cap hit.

Sign Luke, Get Robo, Ship Palat / Dougie

2:19

The left side of my brain is still focused on the MLB Trade Deadline, which only leaves the right side for hockey ... What does the rest of the offseason have in store for the Devils? I had real hopes they would lock up Luke Hughes by now and hoped they would have acquired a Top 6 forward (Robo is wishful thinking). To do either of the two, let alone both, they need to unload Dougie and / or Palat. It feels increasingly unlikely they will get takers for Hamilton at fair value and moving Palat always felt like a longshot. So what now?

Josh Erickson

2:23

Yeah, I'm of the mind that with only $6.1MM in cap space, a Luke Hughes contract isn't getting signed until the Devils manage to make a cap-clearing move. That's priority No. 1, so until they figure out what that framework looks like, I think it's too hard to legitimately entertain or project the idea of acquiring a needle-moving top-six forward. From what I understand, they haven't been seriously involved in those discussions as a result. Hamilton is the more useful player, but New Jersey would at least be dealing from a position of strength and has both Seamus Casey and Simon Nemec ready for more minutes to soften the blow of his departure. I know Hamilton has some injury issues piling up, but 3x9 seems like a reasonable contract for someone who's finished top seven in Norris Trophy voting in three of the last six years.

They might not be able to get *full* value without retention, but he should still net a significant return – depending on which teams are on his 10-team approved list should he waive his NMC, of course.

NHL Fan 76

2:23

Are we still basically waiting on a team or two like Pittsburgh to see anything else really happen this offseason or is there anything else still worth keeping an eye on transaction wise before the season starts?

Josh Erickson

2:25

Yeah, in terms of truly big storylines that could realistically amount to something, the options are limited. There are the two PIT wingers, there are the two top unsigned RFA centers in Mason McTavish and Marco Rossi to watch, but that's it. Depends on what you think about the Chinakhov trade request... and there are still some teams trying to clear cap, but aside from Dougie Hamilton, I don't think that involves any names to really get excited about.

King Duck

2:26

What blockbuster trade could you see the Ducks still making? Even if not likely. What would you do if you are GM?

Josh Erickson

2:27

I could see a trade with the Sabres centered around Bowen Byram and Mason McTavish's signing rights. McTavish wants opportunity... he might be Buffalo's 1C if he ends up there, and Byram is a mobile, high-ceiling succession plan to the aging Radko Gudas and Jacob Trouba. Likely? No, but it's more feasible than a lot of other ideas I've heard, and it's something I'd seriously think about on both sides.

Monty

2:27

If Dubas had replaced Marner with 3 depth guys (at best), he would be getting killed by Leafland. But the present “Snot and DNA” GM is generally being praised. What gives? Dubas should have used silly labels to titillate the press.

Josh Erickson

2:31

I wouldn't call Matias Maccelli a depth guy "at best." He was at a 63-point pace on the Coyotes as a 22-year-old. There's something there. Yes, he's more risk in a top-six position than a team with championship aspirations like the Maple Leafs should be willing to take after losing a player of Marner's caliber, but there is at least some magic beans potential there.

Could Treliving have done better? Maybe. I think it's more worth pointing out that he didn't make any external acquisitions with a cap hit of more than $3.5MM, and none of them are under contract for more than three years. It's clear that spending flexibility is paramount to whatever he's planning – not just this summer, but for the next few years as well. If that was his primary objective this summer, he's achieved it. They suddenly have $24MM in space for 2026-27 with only six roster spots to fill and no big-name FAs aside from Maccelli, if you want to call him one.

82ndTrooper

2:31

Do you think the Canes have any other moves ahead?

Josh Erickson

2:34

I could see them sniffing around for an impact right-shot D... I'm not sure how they (or I) feel about Jalen Chatfield and Sean Walker as their only two NHL-caliber RD options. I imagine Gostisbehere plays on his off side to balance things out. But I wouldn't be surprised to see a team that values its blue line so highly kick the tires on guys like Rasmus Andersson and Erik Karlsson. At forward, I don't see a realistic fit. I don't think the centers "available" (Nazem Kadri, Tomas Hertl) are really out there for them. I don't think they're in a position to give up what Minnesota or Anaheim wants for Rossi or McTavish, and they don't have the picks anymore to make a realistic offer sheet unless they want to give up four first-round picks for one of them.

People complain about their goaltending. I don't get it. It's totally passable.

Phil

2:35

Hearing rumours that NYR kicking tires on Mactavish… do you think this is legit? What would you expect return to be? Do you think Mika would be following Kreider out west as part of the deal?? Thanks!

Josh Erickson

2:37

I would classify it as speculation, not rumors. There's certainly more than enough grounds for it to turn into something more, though, considering those two franchises' recent trading history with one another. It's clear at this point that Zibanejad is not going anywhere; he doesn't really want to waive his no-movement clause, and the Rangers don't seem excited to put him in that position. It would more likely be Alexis Lafrenière involved if discussions did advance to give the Rangers cap space to actually sign McTavish, which they don't have unless they move out a significant salary.

82ndTrooper

2:38

Odds that Suzuki makes opening day roster

Josh Erickson

2:39

Assuming you mean Ryan in Carolina, haha. There's a lot of competition. I wouldn't bet on it, mostly because I don't think they'd be too worried about being able to pass him through waivers. It's probably a three-way battle for that 14th forward spot between him, Tyson Jost, and Bradly Nadeau.

Sas

2:40

Does Mercer get moved by the Devils

Josh Erickson

2:41

No. He provides good value for his contract and doesn't really make enough to move the needle for them outside of likely smoothing a long-term deal for Luke Hughes. Mercer still has growth/rebound potential and they don't have enough established middle-six/bottom-six depth to make him a cap dump.

Monty

2:41

Do you feel Marco Rossi is too small be a #2 centre? Some of the media make it sound like he is a little elf.

Josh Erickson

2:43

I don't. Yes, hockey is a team sport and intangibles matter. That also means context matters. I understand why some teams would be hesitant to entrust a 5'9" center with a long-term top-six role if they're already concerned about his size. But if he can be properly insulated – which was always going to be a need – he can easily be a high-end 2C or even first-line piece. I do not understand Minnesota's distrust. He still managed 60 points in a difficult offensive environment for them last season. Is he worth a long-term deal in the $7MM range like he's asking for? Not sure, but I would still be happy with him as my second-line anchor – provided I had enough size elsewhere in my forward group to help with that element.

Phil

2:44

Anything realistic the Sabres can still do this off-season to help get them over the hump or more of just hope and pray all the youngsters put it all together at the same time?

Josh Erickson

2:46

They can continue to dangle Byram for an impact top-six forward, preferably a center. I do think that would help, even if it's an older name like Bryan Rust coming back (although I'm really liking that McTavish idea I threw out). Would probably help Owen Power develop too. Do I trust them to do it? Not in the slightest.

Lee

2:48

After a quiet Red Wing summer, it looks like we are no longer a top destination for free agents. This would most likely mean we need to make a trade for someone with a NMC? Thoughts on trying to pry Byram from Buffalo...Danielson, Berggren and a 2026 number 2 draft pick??? Thanks

Josh Erickson

2:49

The Sabres aren't moving Byram without getting an established top-six forward in return. The Red Wings don't have any to spare. I'd nix that one from the get-go.

Wind Surfer

2:51

What’s the single most important decision Pat Verbeek has to get right in the next 12 months to ensure the Ducks avoid becoming the next Buffalo or Ottawa—teams stuck in perpetual rebuild limbo?

Josh Erickson

2:51

I think he already made it with his coaching change. Other than sticking the landing and finding a good succession plan for Gudas/Trouba, I've liked his offseason far more than his past summers.

Slang

2:52

Do you think Ovechkin Signs a new deal and plays beyond this season for the Capitals?

Josh Erickson

2:52

I doubt it. Probably 75/25 that he goes home to Russia. I've always been under the impression that it's meaningful for him to do that while he's still near the top of his game – after breaking the goal record, of course.

StlBlues26 fka StlBlues25

2:53

StL will likely enter training camp as a fringe-playoff team which is not unfamiliar territory. What needs to happen for the Blues to take the next step into WCF contention? Do the Blues give Dvorsky time at center this season or could he play on the wing?

Josh Erickson

2:54

I remember seeing a quote from somebody – possibly Doug Armstrong – that they're open to playing Dalibor Dvorský on the wing if they deem NHL playing time is what's going to be best for him. It's too early yet to pencil him into the opening night lineup, he obviously needs to have a strong training camp, but they'll put him there if that's the best marriage between his development and team success.

Next step? Stay healthy. The tools are there for them to make a run, but they're not built out yet to the point where they can afford an injury to somebody of Dylan Holloway's caliber like last year.

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