JotCast | PHR Live Chat: 6/5/24

PHR Live Chat: 6/5/24

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Josh Erickson

1:56

Hi folks! I'll start making my way through the queue of questions in just a minute.

Timed the original post better today, so I won't spend the whole hour just going through questions that were submitted in advance. I have to give chances to the live-watchers, too!

Phil

1:58

Other than Necas, who do you expect to be the top RFAs on the trading block or perhaps considered for an offer sheet?

Josh Erickson

1:59

I think the group of top 10 RFAs is almost hilariously clear in Beniers, Durzi, Hronek, Jarvis, Luukkonen, Mittelstadt, Nečas, Raymond, Seider and Swayman. Not in order, obviously. But who's the best after that... Ryan Lindgren? There's a big drop-off there.

Josh Erickson

2:44

From this list! Beniers, Jarvis, Mittelstadt, Swayman, and Raymond/Seider

Josh Erickson

2:01

So, just taking from that group, I can't see any realistic offer-sheet targets from there, and I can't imagine anyone else getting traded other than Hronek. Beniers has started extension talks, Durzi is Utah's #1 (and will be no matter who they sign in free agency), Jarvis' RFA status is almost the entire reason Carolina is shopping Nečas... and so on. I don't envision particularly testy situations for anyone else.

Swayman's staying put. You could make the case for UPL to be on the move after what's potentially a career year for him and with Levi breathing down his neck, but I don't think it's wise for them to move him without getting a full NHL season out of Levi.

2:02

Mittelstadt is a maybe offer-sheet target with Colorado's cap situation. But still, I'd handicap that at a 2-3% chance of happening.

John S

2:03

Do you think the Canes can sign Jarvis to a 2 year bridge deal to save some cash until they get the longer term situations resolved with Guentzel, Skjei, Pesce, Chatfield, and Teravainen, as well as Slavin up next year?

Josh Erickson

2:04

It's an interesting thought. I can't recall any players of his caliber agreeing to that recently, though. It would save a significant amount of space. I'd imagine a two-year deal comes in closer to $5MM per year... a max-term deal is likely looking in the $8MM neighborhood imo

2:05

Slavin extension seems to be more of a priority for them than retaining any of their pending UFAs, which is... interesting. I've got some thoughts about that, none of them particularly positive. No slight on the player. They just have so many valuable pieces that they're not making enough of an effort to keep. Such is the way of Tom Dundon, it seems.

2:06

But I'd say no. They obviously like Jarvis, and they don't have a recent history of bridge deals.

Unleash

2:06

Do you think the Kraken would be a good fit for Martin Nečas? What would be a reasonable package from Seattle for him?

Josh Erickson

2:07

He'd be an upgrade for sure, and I'd call him their (current) second-best forward behind McCann, but he's not the guy you part with a bunch of assets for. He moves the needle, but not enough to put them in championship contention. I'm not sure I see the point when you could make a push for big-name UFAs without giving up any assets.

2:08

If this was next summer and they had another year of development completed for their above-average prospect pool, I'd entertain it more seriously. But it doesn't make a ton of sense to me, at least not as much as other speculative destinations like Boston and Vancouver.

2:09

I just don't think it makes a lot of sense for the Kraken to be that aggressive this soon, at least for someone who's a good player but not a star.

What do they want?

2:09

What do the Canes want for Necas? Will a 1st and a young roster player get it done?

Josh Erickson

2:10

Depends on where the first falls! If it's top 12, I'd think that gets it done one-for-one. If you're looking at a pick after 20th overall, though, I do think you'd need a B-tier prospect included as well.

Predict It

2:10

Who will be the Rangers’ 1RW on opening night?

Josh Erickson

2:11

Lafrenière. Don't mess with a good thing.

In terms of surprise 40-goal players next season, he'd be high on my list.

They’re still playing games

2:11

Who is the top X factor for each of EDM and FLA?

Josh Erickson

2:12

It's the cliché answer, but I'm struggling to come up with a good reason not to say goaltending for both clubs.

2:13

They were both top-five play-driving teams at 5-on-5 in the regular season... The Oilers were the best in the league.

2:14

So, yeah, if Skinner throws up a SV% in the .920 range like he did against the Stars, it's Edmonton's to lose.

2:15

Both have great special teams, Edmonton in particular. Florida's depth scoring blows the Oilers out of the water. All things considered, I think this is the most equal Cup Final matchup we've had in quite some time, along with COL/TBL two years ago.

Troy

2:15

With Tom Fitzgerald stating he is looking for a 1A goalie this offseason, and Fla having Bob and Knight under contract, does NJD go after Knight, so Fla can free up cap space, to sign their other UFAs, and get Lyons to continue to be the backup, on a cheaper deal than Knight has?

Josh Erickson

2:16

I've gotten no indication that the Devils are comfortable with a "what-if." I love Knight, but he's a "what-if." I could see him moving somewhere, but not to NJ.

Hell, they're not even terribly interested in Saros, it seems. They're going for veterans with track records.

2:18

Also, Lyon signed with DET last summer and is still under contract with them next season. But I would try and keep Anthony Stolarz, who was bar-none the best backup in the league this season, around if they can.

Rich.

2:18

What are the chances Patrick Kane signs with the Hawks if not them. Who

Josh Erickson

2:18

Somewhere between 0 and 50 percent, haha. https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2024/05/blackhawks-havent-ruled-out-br...

2:19

I think a lot of the same teams that were interested over the summer will come calling again. Colorado likely won't be as involved as they'll be capped out with the Landeskog/Nichushkin uncertainties, but I imagine the Bruins, Rangers and Sabres will all place calls, just off the top of my head. I think there's probably a 20-25% chance he just stays in Detroit, too.

Cbj4life

2:20

What are some of the moves that are coming for the jackets ??? New coach ??? Trading the 4th pick ?? please buyout Elvis

Josh Erickson

2:20

I don't envision a scenario in which they trade the fourth overall pick. If they were closer to .500 this season, then maybe, but they're too far away still to justify it.

2:21

And yeah, consider me squarely in the "not a fan" camp on Pascal Vincent. He should've been one of the first names gone in April, but I understand waiting until the GM situation was resolved to make it happen.

I'd like to see Waddell be aggressive there and bring in a guy for development.

2:22

The Elvis buyout is certainly doable, but I wouldn't do it for two reasons.

2:23

One, there's rebound potential. Whether that can happen in Columbus, I don't know. But it's there.

2:24

Second, I'd rather trade him at 50% retention and get him off the books sooner. I don't think many teams would bat an eye at signing him to a three-year, $2.7MM AAV deal if he hit the open market tomorrow. That's what he would cost with max retention via trade, and he'd have suitors.

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