JotCast | PHR Live Chat: 6/26/24

PHR Live Chat: 6/26/24

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Josh Erickson

1:56

Hi folks! Looks like plenty already in the queue, as to be expected with such a busy week. I'll start answering in a few minutes.

Quack quack

1:59

Trevor Zegras, EDM 1st, and Sam Colangelo for Ryan Leonard. Who says no?

Josh Erickson

2:00

Well, wouldn't this be something. Gotta think that's too much for the Ducks to give up, even if Leonard has the slightly superior long-term projection to Zegras at this point.

2:01

I don't think it's wise for the Ducks to deal Zegras this summer at all while his value is at its lowest, for one. Colangelo still has a decent shot of making the show, even if it's not as a high-impact piece. Edmonton first-rounder is late, but it's still a first-rounder.

2:02

If you're making that trade, I do think you need to attach something small to Zegras, but that's more than I'd do.

Alex N

2:02

Now that Utah is settled and Mereulo is out, how soon until we see the Atlanta(?) domino fall and expansion open up for the league?

Josh Erickson

2:02

I'd be surprised if the puck isn't dropping there by 2029-30.

2:03

So, it will likely be announced in two to three years. I wouldn't be totally surprised if it's sooner, though.

John1788

2:03

With Michkov joining the Flyers this season do you see them making their first round picks (11th overall and 32nd overall) available in a trade for a top 4 dman or top 6 center?

Josh Erickson

2:05

I do think it changes their outlook, both short-term and long-term. I think pretty much everybody is listening in this draft – it's gonna be chaos in the next few days. But it'll be tough. Their cap situation isn't great for a team that's not a playoff lock. But they do have most of their roster settled for next season already, and they have a decent chunk of change to spend (~$7MM) with Ryan Ellis back on LTIR.

2:06

We'll see if this rumored OTT/PHI swap shakes out. It may include Chychrun and Laughton, it may not. It's not done until it's done. But I do think if they're making adds via trade, it'll be someone coming out to make way for somebody coming in.

Sharks

2:06

What should Grier’s the plan be for RD this off-season? FA, Trades, neither n let prospects play…?

Josh Erickson

2:07

I mean, the only RD prospect anywhere close to NHL-ready is Ty Emberson, and he's a 24-year-old shutdown guy.

2:08

Trades make no sense unless it's a deal like we just saw for Walman. I imagine there will be at least one major UFA signing (Sean Walker?) to join Emberson and Jan Rutta on the right, with Kyle Burroughs in the press box. Not sure what Matt Benning's availability will be next season after just 14 GP in 2023-24.

Sharks

2:08

Realistic expectations next season?

Josh Erickson

2:09

A very meager point increase. I'd be pretty surprised if they sniff 70 points.

2:10

No matter what Celebrini and Smith are able to do, the state of that defense is gonna be tough to overcome.

UncleMike1526

2:10

As much as I would love to see the Hawks add a big time UFA to play with Bedard I don’t think that’s the way to go. Guentzel will become a liability eventually IMO. I think they need to find a guy who will grow with Bedard rather than a contract that will outgrow it’s usefulness eventually. Forget about Laine so trade is the way to go IMO. Who are some guys that might be available to acquire by trade that fit my criteria? Thanks as always.

Josh Erickson

2:12

Nearly every UFA signing becomes a liability eventually, for one. I get what you're saying about finding someone to grow "with" Bedard instead of providing immediate high-end support, but I bring up the Decade of Darkness in Edmonton as a cautionary tale of that strategy. Putting all your marbles on U-23 players too early often fizzles out. You need at least one guy. Do the Hawks have that already in Taylor Hall? That's why I think his injury last season was so tough. It's hard to gauge what his impact will be moving forward.

2:14

The only one that comes to mind that I think you're angling at would be someone we've already mentioned today in Zegras. While I don't hate the idea, again, having an established defensively-challenged winger as the main support option for your second-year superstar doesn't seem wise to me in the slightest. I like the Guentzel fit there for now, and with how aggressive the cap is expected to rise, I really don't share your concern about how the deal may age.

Phil

2:14

How many 1st rounders do you see being moved between now and end of Friday night? Will gladly hear out any specific trades or teams you expect to be most active! Thanks

Josh Erickson

2:15

Before draft night, I could see one (not sure who) being moved for Rutger McGroarty (+ Ehlers, too? We'll see). Other than that, I think everything else will happen at the event. I'd expect a few pick swaps.

Brandon

2:15

What do you think Byfields next contract is?
long term or bridge

Josh Erickson

2:16

Gut tells me bridge. I think they'll try and keep him south of $4.5MM for now, and if they're only going for two years instead of three, they'll be able to get him for considerably less than that.

mike123

2:16

Is signing mcgroaety better then trad8ng him for the jets? Or what type of return c how much is an extension of ehlers worth?

Josh Erickson

2:16

I don't think it really matters what's better for them at this stage since they've evidently fractured the relationship. There's no rush – if everyone was happy, we wouldn't be talking about a trade.

2:18

Depends on what the return is, but having him enter the lineup within 2 years on an ELC would have been really impactful in helping them extend their playoff contention window over the life of the Hellebuyck/Scheifele deals. Unless he gets a really hefty return, this seems like a blunder from WPG.

Brian

2:18

With the Caps sending Kuemper to the Kings, do they elevate AHL goalie of the year Hunter Shepard from Hershey or do they invest in another seasoned veteran to back up Lindgren?

Josh Erickson

2:19

I'd elevate Shepard. That gives you a goalie tandem that costs under $2MM combined and a rather large chunk of change to throw around to add some impact pieces to the forward group.

Ron Duguay

2:20

Is Ryan Lindgren plus the 30th pick overall enough to move into the high teens or low 20s (Toronto @ #23?), or is that an overpay?

Josh Erickson

2:21

That would seem about right to me considering his injury history and his down year in 2023-24. But I don't think Toronto swings that deal. They're looking for right-side help, not left-side.

2:22

I wonder if that could get you up to 22 in a swap with Nashville, though.

Cheaper McDonagh replacement.

Jeff Skinner

2:22

Where's my next home?

Josh Erickson

2:24

Without much time to conduct negotiations with their rather large crop of UFAs, I expect some serious turnover in Florida. They'd jump out to me immediately, and he'd do well as a Tarasenko replacement. If not, I wouldn't be terribly surprised to see him end up back in Carolina, either. Boston needs a DeBrusk replacement, looks like he's gone. Would be affordable scoring depth for the Leafs, too. He'll have plenty of options.

Glen Sather was still working???

2:24

Hi, Josh. As alternative to overpaying term for Jake Guentzel or bringing back Patrick Kane, what is Frank Vatrano's trade value? Could the Rangers obtain him for Kaapo plus a defensive prospect? What about straight up for Lindgren since their salaries will be similar and Anaheim needs decent defensemen? Thanks.

Josh Erickson

2:26

I do think you could structure something around Kaako + another asset for Vatrano, but not a defensive prospect. They really don't have any of value aside from Drew Fortescue and Matt Robertson, and they're C-tier guys for me. Don't think that does it. Shame they've already sent away all their upcoming second-round picks. I think that may have worked.

2:27

30th overall probably gets you Vatrano straight up. Not sure how I'd feel about it, but I'm just throwing that out there.

Felix the Cat

2:28

Which teams would John Tavares waive his NTC? Would he go to Chicago if Toronto threw in their first rounder and ate some money?

Josh Erickson

2:28

Don't think there's any chance of that, no.

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