JotCast | PHR Live Chat: 6/11/25

PHR Live Chat: 6/11/25

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Josh Erickson

1:54

Hi all. I'll start answering questions at the top of the hour.

1:59

I'll put a note in the next chat announcement, but moving forward, let's institute a soft limit of three or four questions per person. I'm starting to notice people submit far more than that per session, and while I greatly appreciate the interest, it's hard to get to everyone if there are that many questions to comb through

cool

1

Ken Holland

2:00

What big move should I make to get this team over the hump?

Josh Erickson

2:02

There are always two ways a team can go: address their weaknesses or improve their strengths so much that their weaknesses don't matter. With defensively oriented teams, it's exceedingly hard to do the former. The Kings actually had fine finishing last season; they just leaned too hard into quantity over quality. Helping create more expected goals, particularly through playmaking, is the key. Mitch Marner would be a spectacular fit there as a result, although considering the salary cap math after an extension for Vladislav Gavrikov, Ehlers might be a more realistic target. Either way, both would dramatically improve their championship chances.

Frondell

2:03

After his impressive fitness testing, what is the highest Frondell may go in the draft ? As he has played some against older guys and is physically mature for his age, would he come to North America right away ?

Josh Erickson

2:05

From what I understand, he's being considered as high as No. 3 overall by the Blackhawks. Their top choice is Michael Misa, but in the likely scenario that he's not still available, their decision is likely between Frondell and Caleb Desnoyers. Frondell isn't expected to come to the NHL or AHL next season. While you're correct that he played against professionals, he did so in Sweden's second-tier league. His club, Djurgårdens IF, won promotion to the SHL for 2025-26, so he'll be playing in a top-flight European league if he stays over for another season, which he hasn't done before. Doing so will ease the transition to NHL minutes. His contract with Djurgårdens also expires following next season.

Chip23

2:05

Are you surprised by the return (speculated) on Kreider?

Josh Erickson

2:08

It depends a lot on what the draft pick is. I think the best-case scenario is that it's the Ducks' 2026 second-rounder. I don't believe a first-rounder is in play here, and Anaheim doesn't have its 2025 second-round pick. They have the Jets, which will fall pretty late at 60th overall. I believe the pick will do more heavy lifting here than Carey Terrance, who I think is a fine prospect but doesn't have much more than bottom-six upside. If it's the 2026 R2 pick coming back, I think that's fine work for New York, considering the injury-plagued season Kreider had. I don't think his contract is all that bad with his legitimate rebound potential.

2:09

Cap dumps are always hard to gauge, though. Positive-value players were getting dumped in exchange for future considerations not too long ago (Max Pacioretty is a nice comparable here). For that reason, I think the return is at least acceptable, even if it's a mid-round pick, not a second-rounder.

rights

2:09

Do you expect any teams to trade signing rights to players before they hit UFA status on 7/1 to salvage something ? How close to 7/1 could they wait ?

Josh Erickson

2:10

I believe the Maple Leafs only go that route with Marner if it's a sign-and-trade. I also think the Jets will pursue a more pure signing rights trade with Nikolaj Ehlers if it becomes apparent two to three days before July 1 that they're not going to be able to come to an agreement. We've seen these moves happen as late as the day before July 1 in the past, so essentially until the last minute, to answer your second question.

Euros

2:11

To entice European plyers to come over, can't teams agree to a European assignment clause where they can return home if they can't make the NHL roster ? Why wouldn't either side agree to that ?

Josh Erickson

2:13

Correct. The majority of those deals do contain European Assignment Clauses. It depends on the role the player anticipates having or was "promised" by the organization he's signing with. It's also not usually as cut and dry as the NHL or Europe. Players with European Assignment Clauses can still be assigned to the AHL, but the clause usually limits how long they can be in the minors without a call-up before the player can trigger a loan to their overseas club. I believe an EAC also requires a valid contract in Europe or the players' signing rights to be held by a European team. If they're a free agent in Europe, there's nowhere to loan them unless the NHL club permits them to pursue a contract.

DStars

2:13

Who do you think are the likeliest options for the Stars head coach job? And how soon will Nill hire one?

Josh Erickson

2:15

I would not expect the process to stretch past draft day. For that reason, I believe an internal promotion is most likely, particularly with the Stars needing to rely on some call-ups and cheap young talent amid their cap crunch. I would label their AHL head coach, Neil Graham, as the favorite for that reason – continuity. Texas has also done quite well over the past few seasons, including a 48-win year here in 2024-25.

robrob

2:16

What are your odds that EP40 doesn't get traded before his NMC becomes effective July 1st?

Josh Erickson

2:17

There's a more affordable and safer option out there now for teams looking for a young center in Marco Rossi, even if Pettersson has a higher ceiling. I would not expect him to be moved in the next few weeks.

Bourque

2:17

If Dallas' Bourque can be given an offer sheet and might accept that within the third round pick comp range, isn't he a likely offer sheet target ?

Josh Erickson

2:19

He is eligible and would likely accept in that range, considering there's almost no chance the Stars can offer him anything greater than that. Frank Seravalli of Daily Faceoff outlined the case for a Bourque offer sheet just yesterday: https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/2025-nhl-offseason-offer-sheet-candi...

robrob

2:20

Would Ottawa consider trading Dylan Cozens in a trade for Marco Rossi, and what additions would the Wild make in the package.

Josh Erickson

2:23

I think the premise of the trade is dead in the water for multiple reasons. The Senators just parted ways with someone they once viewed as a core piece to acquire Cozens, for one, and he produced at a 62-point pace for them down the stretch. Rossi's next contract is also projected to be slightly higher than Cozens' $7.1MM AAV if they go long-term. Considering I don't believe there's a huge difference in actual impact or trade value between the two, I see no reason why Ottawa, a team with some cap issues of their own this season, would pursue that deal without some guarantee they'd be saving cap space in the process. In addition, I don't think there would be a need for Minnesota to add assets to Rossi in the deal even if it were feasible.

robrob

2:23

Your best (most likely) destination in your opinion, if Robertson gets traded by Dallas?

Josh Erickson

2:27

He's suddenly emerged as a viable backup option for teams that miss out on Marner, and many would even view him as preferable to signing Nikolaj Ehlers in free agency, even with a potential arbitration hearing looming next summer. If Marner passes over lucrative offers from the Blue Jackets and Ducks to pursue a deal with a more established playoff contender, I could see them both being trade fits for Dallas. Nearly any team in a position to give up an NHL-ready player on an entry-level contract or otherwise cheap deal, something Dallas will look for in return to keep them competitive yet cap-compliant, is a fit. Columbus and Anaheim, likely to be among the most aggressive teams this summer, both fit that bill (although the CBJ likely has more desirable assets for the Stars – Kent Johnson, maybe?)

Draft

2:28

Who are the teams most likely looking to move up/down in the first round this year?

Josh Erickson

2:31

The Ducks are certainly signaling their intent to exit the rebuild. They seem like a good candidate to trade down from No. 10 overall as a result. I don't foresee much other movement in the top 10 aside from the Islanders potentially being aggressive enough to acquire a second pick in that range for a chance at both Matthew Schaefer and James Hagens. I imagine the Red Wings and Canadiens are both fine with moving down for a piece that helps them now. I don't think Columbus is interested in purely moving down because they're shopping their pick in a bigger move. It would hurt their ability to do so if they slipped from No. 14. Chicago likes to be aggressive on draft day; I wonder if they try to move up from the second pick they own at No. 25 overall.

HMT

2:31

IF the Panthers do it again...Conn Smythe pick? (Asking re Florida because there's little doubt who'll be taking it home if Edmonton wins.) Seems like Bennett and Bobrovsky are the favorites at this point (I'd lean towards the latter).

Josh Erickson

2:32

I would lean in Bobrovsky's direction as well. He's been fantastic yet again, I'd argue measurably more so than the 2024 run in which he had a legitimate argument for MVP honors.

2:33

Bobrovsky has saved 11.7 goals above expected in the 2025 playoffs, per MoneyPuck. He "only" posted 7.0 GSAx last year.

robrob

2:33

If Kaprizov signs an extension, does it stay under 14M AAV?

Josh Erickson

2:34

No. I think that ship has already sailed with the rising cap. If it hasn't yet, it will when there's a whole new set of comparable contracts doled out in free agency this summer. I do think he signs an extension, I think it's eight years, but I do believe it will be in the low $14MM range, not below it.

Schaefer

2:35

Since he turns 18 in Sept and missed most of last year, as good as he is, I don't see how Schaefer is ready for the NHL As the Isles also need help up front, wouldn't trading down a few slots for more assets and taking LI native Hagens possibly make sense considering the got the top pick solely based on luck ?

Josh Erickson

2:36

No, purely because I can't remember a case where trading down from No. 1 has ever worked out for the team that did it. If there's a draft where it makes sense to do it, I think it may be this one since it's so even among the top few picks, at least in my view. I don't believe there's a huge gap between Schaefer/Misa and the rest of the upper echelon like most do.

robrob

2:36

What would an extension for Filip Gustavsson look like. The Wild get by with a 5 year 7M a year offer?

Josh Erickson

2:36

That seems about right. May need to up the term on it, but that's not far off.

Panthers

2:37

Although Ekblad is a lifetime Panther and wants to stay there, couldn't they let him leave now that Jones is there even though Ekblad is a better overall D man ? They could better use the money elsewhere ?

Josh Erickson

2:39

I'd agree with that. I don't think it's what they do, but it's the better play to continue providing elite depth at every position. Injury concerns are very real for Ekblad, much more so than for Jones. The latter has five years left at $7MM, which I think is the best case for Ekblad, even with a slight discount. All things equal, Jones is the better value.

King Duck

2:40

After the Kreider trade, what is one more trade or signing in free agency you would like to make if you were the GM? At least the most realistic transaction you can see happening?

Josh Erickson

2:42

I do think Marner is realistic. I believe the reports that they'll field him the most financially lucrative offer. I'd like that more than a Robertson trade if for no other reason than the fact they need more right-shots than lefties at forward.

slang1987

2:42

Who do you think the Capitals will target in a trade this summer?

Josh Erickson

2:44

They need some middle-six wingers. I think they re-sign Beauvillier, or at least attempt to, and let everyone else walk. They still need another. Peterka is likely going to be prohibitively expensive for them under the cap on his next contract. I would wonder about a name like Vladimir Tarasenko or, if they want just another cheap name with upside, they maybe contact the Blackhawks about Lukas Reichel.

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