JotCast | PHR Live Chat: 5/28/25

PHR Live Chat: 5/28/25

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Josh Erickson

1:56

Hey folks, I'll start answering questions in four minutes!

Black Ace57

2:00

What do you think is the mistake/trap that rebuilding teams fall into the most that prevents them from a successful rebuild? Is it tearing down the team too much? Rushing the prospects too quickly?

Josh Erickson

2:03

I wouldn't say tearing down the team too much doesn't work. Most of the last multi-Cup winning champs were pretty unwatchable for a couple of years, directly leading to the core that helped them win (TBL, CHI, PIT especially). It's navigating past that stage where teams have trouble. Insulating players as they graduate is a must for proper development. That's where the Sabres have failed the most. They've failed to attract the quality secondary veteran talent that gives their developing players proper support.

2:04

Rebuilds have been ruined both by underutilizing and overutilizing prospects and draft capital. I'd say they happen about the same.

Marco Rossi

2:04

Where do you think he'll eventually land and what do you think the Wild will be targeting in a potential trade return?

Josh Erickson

2:07

I think the offer sheet compensation for a player in the ~$7MM-9MM range is about where his trade value is. That's a first-rounder, second-rounder, and a third-rounder. In a trade instead of an offer sheet, I imagine the Wild are looking for a player in place of the first-round draft choice. Not sure where they're gonna get that from one of the five teams mentioned in our piece today regarding that RG report. Might have to settle for the pick in a Rossi trade and flip it for an NHL-ready asset in a different move. I think the Penguins make the most sense... Malkin can have easier workload on the wing in what may be his final season while Rossi takes over the 2C role behind Crosby.

Pete

2:07

How many years did Darsch get with the Islanders? I read an article saying Barzal could be traded to the Wild for Rossi and a pick any truth to this rumor? Thanks for your good work very interesting and informative.

Josh Erickson

2:11

I'm unsure of the length of Mathieu Darche's contract. It wasn't made public, I don't recall it ever being reported by a reputable source, and I can't find anything to change that at a quick glance.

I haven't heard any Barzal/Rossi chatter from anywhere reputable. The islanders weren't linked to Rossi in that report from RG today, but that's not an exhaustive list of clubs and it's always uncertain just how aggressive those clubs' "interest" is. I'm surprised NYI wasn't listed, though. I feel as though that framework makes sense for both clubs more so than what teams like the Penguins, Flyers, and Blackhawks would have to offer the Wild.

draft lottery

2:11

I thought the draft lottery was to prevent "tanking". Teams like the NYI and Utah who were in the playoff running were not tanking. Is having teams like that move up 9 and 10 spots really what the lottery was designed to prevent ?

Josh Erickson

2:14

Whether we like it or not, this year's lottery proves it works precisely as intended. There's supposed to be no guarantee that engineering a last-place finish grants you the top prospect in the draft. Do I think there should be a more restrictive rule regarding how far a team can move up in the draft order? Personally, yes. But the Sharks and Blackhawks slipping in the order after getting recent lottery wins is precisely the law of averages over time that a lottery system hopes to instill.

Who's Fabio?

2:14

I'm not sure there is anything to this, but I heard Marner to the Penguins based off his Dubas connection. Do you see that as a fit for either side?

Josh Erickson

2:18

It comes down to what Marner's motivation is this summer. Is it winning a championship? Is it being "the guy" for a team? Is it money? Any team with the money to burn will be interested in Marner. Players of that caliber only hit free agency once every five years. How many teams progress past the "due diligence" stage of talks remains to be seen. Aside from those just at the beginning of a teardown, any team would benefit from Marner in their lineup, including Pittsburgh, which will have restocked a decent prospect pool after this year's draft. Until it's clearer what Marner's preferences are, it's hard to say whether it's a mutual fit. My response to any team until that day comes will be "what the hell, sure."

goalie status

2:18

What do you think happens with Brossoit ? Assuming he is healthy enough to play, is he destined for the 3rd goalie at Rockford replacing Weeks behind Commesso and Rowe ?

Josh Erickson

2:21

If he's healthy, I think he's a strong candidate for waivers and subsequent reassignment to Rockford. Keeping him on the roster as a No. 3 does little for the player or the organization, who would benefit from him playing and playing well to increase his trade value. The best chance for him to do that and to get back into playing shape is in Rockford. I can guarantee he won't be that far down their depth chart. He likely gets more frequent starts early to boost his trade value, while the Hawks hope another team will want him as a backup option.

Mike dickinson

2:21

Canes fan here. This series has shown holes in Rod’s system. Can you win a cup with that system? If yes, who is available that is a good fit in the offseason?

Josh Erickson

2:25

Virtually every recent Stanley Cup champion grades out very well in the possession metrics that define the Hurricanes' play style. It's absolutely winnable. The issue is roster construction. The last team to win a Stanley Cup without a point-per-game player in the regular season was the Golden Knights in 2023. They had seven guys producing over 0.7 per game, though. Carolina had two this season, Aho and Jarvis. The issue that plagues them this year is the lack of enough secondary scoring to overcome the lack of a true game-breaking talent.

draft

2:26

Usually the top 2 players selected in a draft do not end up both being the best two players. If Schaefer and Misa are not the best two eventually, who might replace one of them ?

Josh Erickson

2:28

Anton Frondell has been quite streaky over the last two years, but when he's on, he may have the highest ceiling in the class. Porter Martone is somewhat similarly boom-or-bust. I do still believe Misa and Schaefer have the most ideal combination of ceiling and certainty, though.

6/1

2:28

Have you heard of any signing between now and 6/1 of the players whose rights expire then as listed on Puck Pedia ?

Josh Erickson

2:30

The Hurricanes signed Nikita Quapp yesterday. (https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2025/05/hurricanes-sign-nikita-quapp-t...) That one surprised me. There isn't another name on the list I've heard that's close to a deal.

GM ,coach

2:30

Do you think GMs are more important than coaches as they determine what players the coaches have to work with and develop ?

Josh Erickson

2:31

Yes, and it's not particularly close. The greatest extremes of coaches can overcome bad roster construction or tank good roster construction, but that's exceedingly uncommon. A coach can't develop a winning identity without a foundation, though.

Mikey

2:32

I expect more fringe moves and nothing major, but I have two hypothetical questions:

If the Avs want to make a splash in free agency, what players will they need to move out to create cap flexibility that won't have an overall negative impact to the team? Manson seems like someone they would try to move, but would a guy like Girard fetch them enough value to make the extra cap space worth it? Or forwards like Wood, or on the high end Necas?
Necas moving now might anger the fan base even more given that he was the big return for Rantanen, but if they decided to go that route, what kind of package coming back would be realistic and what free agent would need to be signed to make it make sense?

Josh Erickson

2:37

I agree that you could find a pair of more efficient defensemen than Girard and Manson for their combined cap hit of $9.5MM. I'm not sure what Girard's value would be in trade talks around the league. They haven't shopped him enough in recent years for anyone to get a realistic sense of what he may garner. I do think Girard for two years at $5MM nets you far more in a trade than Manson, who's always a question mark to even play, for one year at $4.5MM. With the lack of obvious cost-effective UFA replacements this summer, I'd advocate for extracting more value out of Girard in a trade than dealing Manson for the cap dump and trying to replace him with UFA pickups.

2:38

I can tell you there's zero appetite to move Necas, who scored at a 77-point pace for the Avs after the trade. They're not finding a better use of that $6.5MM cap hit for next season. There's no scenario in which trading him to make a UFA pickup makes sense.

UFAs

2:39

Do you know if Palmiero and Donato are still actively talking resigning with their respective teams ? At roughly what date do you think they will just wait for 7/1 if still at an impasse ?

Josh Erickson

2:40

I'm not sure if Darche has restarted contract talks with Palmieri yet. Obviously, they ceased when Lamoriello's duties ended. Chicago's plate has been full too with coaching interviews. I'd imagine both those conversations get ignited over the next couple of weeks. I would imagine each player lets things ride until ~June 15-20 before deciding whether to test the market.

Brad T.

2:41

So I have a bunch of money available this summer and my team needs a shakeup, any suggestions?

Josh Erickson

2:44

Two needs, obviously, spreading the wealth offensively and acquiring a true No. 1 defenseman. The former is obviously more easily done than the latter with none available on the open market. They'll have to get insanely aggressive to make it work. It would be a scorched-earth scenario – something like a Morgan Rielly buyout followed by a Marner sign-and-trade with the Islanders that nets them Dobson. That sounds too crazy to be plausible. It probably is. Ehlers will be far more cost-efficient than Boeser or Bennett if the latter's price ends up exceeding $7.5MMish. I'd suggest Ehlers should be their top target as a result before looking for additional middle-six forwards.

Boeser

2:45

What 1 or 2 teams do you think Boeser may sign with as he's apparently not returning to Vancouver ?

Josh Erickson

2:49

I like the Blue Jackets. I think it's fair to say the Marner market will be competitive enough that they don't stand much of a chance. Boeser's a fine fallback option, they have the space, and it would get him closer to home in MN. The Wild are also a strong suitor, too, of course. They need a long-term plan to replace Zuccarello in the top six.

Ron Duguay

2:49

Would the Rangers entertain a trade offer of K'Andre Miller to the Sharks for Ferraro and Dallas' 1st rounder (from the Grandlund trade)? If not, can you see the Rangers and Sabres connecting a big deal including a few of their big name RFAs? Thanks.

Josh Erickson

2:51

I like it for both clubs, but I realistically think the Sharks say no, though. They value Ferraro internally much higher than I do. They've had multiple opportunities to trade him and haven't. I don't think Miller is enough of an established upgrade for them to surrender a late first in addition to Ferraro. I think the latter is more likely.

Monty

2:51

The Leafs can’t score in the playoffs. Yet they keep adding big “defence first”, often “defence only” players to their bottom 6 forwards and defence. Does more grit rather than more goals make sense?

Josh Erickson

2:52

Correct observation. Defensively responsible (i.e. the Panthers' third line) doesn't have to mean "defense only," as you say. More two-way threats are needed, not pure scoring ones or shutdown ones.

Jamie Benn

2:52

Am I washed? And what happened to my team's firepower? Edmonton is not this good defensively.

Josh Erickson

2:54

Wow, I didn't realize it was as bad as three points in 17 games. I will contest the last sentence. The Oilers were a better defensive team at 5-on-5 this season than the Stars by every metric (shot attempts, expected goals, scoring chances, high-danger chances)

based

2:54

Hey Josh, do you have any thoughts on when a team trailing by a goal should pull the goalie for an extra skater. Florida trailing by a goal gave up an EN goal in gm 4 with 2:11 left. Game over at that point. If my team allowed that to happen in the SCF gm 7 I'd be livid.

Josh Erickson

2:56

The analytics advocate for pulling the goalie earlier. Generally, I'd agree. But as you point out, context needs to play a role. There's no shot I'm pulling my goalie down one with more than two minutes left on the clock in an elimination game. You were obviously a good enough team to get to that point. Don't shoot yourself in the foot too early unless you're really dominating play and just can't break through.

Mike

2:57

very likely we see a finals rematch from last year. who do u pick to win?

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