JotCast | PHR Live Chat: 4/2/25

PHR Live Chat: 4/2/25

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Josh Erickson

1:57

Hey folks, I'll get started with questions in a few minutes

ELC

2:00

Is it reasonable for a 6th round pick who projects as a bottom six F like Dominic James of UMD to expect to burn the first year of a 2 year ELC by joining Chicago now ?

Josh Erickson

2:01

It may be in some cases, but not James'. If he was going to, it would have happened by now. Duluth's season has been over for a while now. It's my understanding they still intend to sign him, but the deal will begin next season.

stalemate

2:02

With no cap space to sign Isaac Howard, what do you think Tampa will do ? Tell him to return to Mich. St or trade his rights ? Could they waive someone to clear $1.15 mill and use that money for this season ?

Josh Erickson

2:04

Neither of those options are realistic. They can still sign him to a deal beginning next season. I believe they're waiting to see if an avenue opens up to get him a deal now. They'll have just enough space banked by the final week of the regular season to get him a deal, so they could have him around for the playoffs. If not, they'll get him inked to an ELC that starts in 2025-26 and he can finish the year on a tryout with AHL Syracuse. Howard intends to turn pro, and the Bolts intend for it to be in Tampa.

2:05

They could paper someone like Atkinson down again to get it done now but likely wouldn't be able to have him in the lineup again until the playoffs.

2:05

first impressions on ryan leonard

Josh Erickson

2:07

I liked his game and the situation he was put in. The Leonard-Strome-Protas line had the most scoring chances for the Caps last night by far. I believe he'll be in the Game 1 lineup against whoever they face in the first round.

coaches

2:07

What NHL coaches do you think may be fired in the near future if their season is a big disappointment ?

Josh Erickson

2:10

This doesn't necessarily count as being fired, but I'd be surprised if any of the coaches finishing the season on interim tags (BOS/Sacco, CHI/Sorensen, PHI/Shaw) are brought back next year. The only one I can see having the tag removed and staying in his current role is Shaw. Other than that, I don't expect a ton of movement. There are no coaches on an expiring contract this summer aside from Rick Tocchet, but there's a club option in his deal for next season the Canucks will exercise if they don't have an extension done. They're keeping him, at least for next year. Cronin's done enough this year to keep his job in Anaheim. The only firing I think might be realistic is Peter Laviolette.

Busy body

2:11

Florida, TB, Toronto what's the order at the end of the season?

Josh Erickson

2:12

Toss a coin, there's your answer. I think it will be hard at this stage for the Panthers to win the crown. They're banged up, missing some key guys, and will be saving their juice for the playoffs. At this stage, looks like 50/50 between the Leafs and Bolts. Tampa has the slightly easier schedule, so I'll give them the nod and set the Leafs up for a first-round matchup with Florida. But I think most hockey fans want a division title for Toronto, setting up Battles of Ontario and Florida in the first round.

Anonymous GM

2:12

Washington is having a great bounce back season and yet most sports books still have FLA, CAR and some even TB as favs in the East. What's with the disrespect to a team who might win the Presidents Trophy?

Josh Erickson

2:18

It's not disrespect, it's being informed. Yes, the Capitals have noticeably improved their possession play from last season. They're not dominant at 5-on-5, though. A good portion of their standings points can be attributed to Logan Thompson's outstanding performance this season. He's been good in his limited playoff viewings. But the Caps are also shooting at an INCREDIBLE 13.1% rate. That's the highest since the 1995-96 Penguins shot 13.7%. It's simply not sustainable, and teams with outlier shooting percentages generally don't fare particularly well in the postseason. The teams you mention have far superior raw possession numbers, which tend to be one of the more accurate predictors of playoff success.

2:19

The Capitals have actually generated fewer shot attempts, scoring chances, and high-danger chances than the average team at 5-on-5 this season. Most of their offensive explosion has come from shooting talent/luck, and I wouldn't bank on it continuing in 2025-26.

DStars

2:19

WCF And ECF predictions?

Josh Erickson

2:21

Give me a Southeast Division battle of Hurricanes/Lightning and Vegas/Colorado in the West.

turning pro

2:22

After having a breakout season and already 23, what is the advantage to Aidan Thompson returning to DU for his senior year with the risk of an injury and a less productive year ?

Josh Erickson

2:23

I think you answered your own question with the "already 23" part. You can only have so many guys in the system. With the focus turning toward the present and not the future in Chicago, I'm not sure he signs with them. They may shop his signing rights around or let him walk, but I understand Thompson's point of view if he doesn't see much of an NHL future for himself there.

draft

2:25

On your own list, who do you have as the best 3 -4 prospects in your top tier for the 2025 draft as of now ?

Josh Erickson

2:26

It's all very tough calls right now. I'm not as bullish on Matthew Schaefer as most are, and I have him third on my board right now. Ahead of him are Michael Misa (1) and Anton Frondell (2), and just behind him are James Hagens (4) and Porter Martone (5).

slang1987

2:30

What kind of projections do you see for capitals prospect Ryan Leonard next year?

Josh Erickson

2:31

I could easily see him scoring in the 45-to-60-point range. More than that would surprise me, partly due to the overall offensive regression I expect from the Capitals in 2025-26. But he should be given consistent top-nine and power-play deployment with Andrew Mangiapane looking unlikely to return.

Brennan McClain

2:31

Hey Josh

Josh Erickson

2:31

Avs fan

2:31

Any chance Nelson resigns with Colorado or are back looking for a 2C next season?

Josh Erickson

2:35

I believe Nelson rejected a three-year, $7MM AAV offer from the Islanders. I would imagine he's willing to take less but wants more term. A four-year, $6.5MM AAV deal could get it done, although I imagine maybe it's closer to $6.75MM. If it's in that range, I think it's feasible, although it would mean the rest of their offseason additions would be at or near league minimum. A $6.5MM cap hit on an extension for Nelson means they have $2.2MM in cap space next season with another 3-4 roster spots to fill. It would be tight sledding, probably too tight. I wonder if they go super long on term to get the cap number down a little bit, maybe five or even six years (a la Chris Tanev in Toronto last year). Either way, if they make re-signing him a priority, it's clear they won't have the space to bring back Jonathan Drouin.

Tommy Hawk

2:38

Should the Hawls trade from their young D core this offseason to upgrade their F core, or should they wait another year and let it play out in hopes they'd get a better return once guys get more established?

Josh Erickson

2:40

No, they have plenty of spending money to upgrade their forward core by being aggressive in free agency. If they miss out on landing an impact player or it proves to not be enough juice by the end of next season, then you maybe consider it. But I'd only be trading away future draft picks for now, not prospects/young roster players. They're another year or two away from being in a position to do that unless it's a change of scenery move for somebody.

STL fan

2:42

Does this St. Louis season feel like 2019?

Josh Erickson

2:45

The two teams made coaching changes at similar times, so I feel it's fair to directly compare their total-season results. This year's Blues are not nearly as adept at preventing high-danger scoring chances against, nor are they better at preventing them. St. Louis was a strong defensive team all year in 2018-19 that was torpedoed early on by poor goaltending. The coaching change helped jumpstart their offense, and Binnington righted the ship. Do I think they can upset a division champ and win a series? Sure. But I don't see the team's possession play on the whole as strong enough for a WCF/SCF Cinderella run.

2:46

*nor are they better at generating them, I meant to say

Al Arbor

2:47

isn't it about time for islanders ownership to jettison both Roy and Lamoriello - playoffs were a dream, but if they wildcarded in -out in the first round - Lee, Palmieri, Pageau and others should have been traded - at this point sit em and play the youngsters more - this team is inept

Josh Erickson

2:51

Inept and, I would add, directionless. But there are simply too many anchor contracts on the books to do a teardown, so I don't place the blame on this year's decision to keep everyone aside from Nelson. Teams interested in Lee and Pageau found more affordable options. Extending Palmieri, I'd argue, increases his value when you do decide to trade him in the next year or so – assuming it's a favorable extension.

There is a counterpoint to this – at what point do you blow it up for the sake of blowing it up? Even if your assets aren't valuable, there's no path to contention with the core as constructed. I understand and hear the argument for jettisoning players for underwhelming returns simply to open up flexibility and rebuild through the draft. There obviously needs to be a new front office in place for that to happen, though.

Lane Hutson

2:51

In what universe am i not the obvious calder winner this year?

Josh Erickson

2:53

He wouldn't be my pick. I'd argue for Dustin Wolf. It's close, but it's not toss-up close to me. 13.4 goals saved above expected behind a defense featuring Joel Hanley in a top-four role is insane work as a rookie.

Blue seats

3:00

In the off season, is there a team interested in Mika Zban, and would he accept a trade somewhere?

Josh Erickson

3:00

He would, but it's my understanding the list of teams is very limited and I'm not sure what they are. If it could have happened, I think it would have happened in-season.

3:01

Alright folks, that's all the time for today. Hope everyone has a great rest of their week!

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