JotCast | PHR Live Chat: 3/12/25

PHR Live Chat: 3/12/25

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Josh Erickson

1:39

Hi everyone! Will start answering questions at the top of the hour.

1:57

Why not get started a few minutes early?

mike124

1:57

Who's ur top 5 stanley cup contenders in order?

Josh Erickson

1:59

It's the boring pick, but give me a Panthers repeat in my first spot. That top-six is going to be just terrifying if Marchand and Tkachuk get healthy for/in round one. Even without them, they're well-poised for a deep run once Ekblad gets back in the fold. Top three in 5v5 expected goals share and Corsi share with a goalie that's done it before. All the boxes are checked.

2:00

Washington is the real deal and quite deep at every position, assuming no injuries. They've been quite healthy all year aside from the Ovechkin absence. I'm not sure I'd put them as my No. 2 – that's the Stars assuming Heiskanen returns during the first round – but maybe 3. Jets at 4 and Vegas at 5.

Hartford Whalers

2:00

Post deadline, teams do you anticipate being in line for a front office shakeup? Buffalo/Islanders/Seattle have had some tough years, and Rangers/Boston certainly haven’t met expectations but tough to see them moving on from their current GMs

Josh Erickson

2:04

For better or for worse, I think the Islanders respect Lamoriello too much to let him go out on anyone's terms but his own. I do wonder about Kevyn Adams, but there's so much ownership drama/involvement in Buffalo that it's hard to predict. The Kraken are a normal expansion team, can't fault them for that. They've drafted quite well, and although this season is disappointing, the players who are cornerstones for the future are coming along – Wright in particular. I don't see that as enough to cost Francis his job. I disagree with the assessment that it's tough to see the Bruins moving on from Sweeney. Boston made a GM change the last time they retooled, and it was after the first of two seasons they missed the playoffs. I actually think he's the likeliest name to not be in his current post next season out of the five you mention.

John

2:04

Chances Ryan Leonard joins the capitals this year? Is there a non zero chance for Oshie? Haven’t heard a word on him so I assume he’s done.

Josh Erickson

2:05

Pretty good chance on Leonard. I'm not sure if he'll play, but I

2:06

*it's likelier than not he signs and is at least around the team. If BC makes it to the final, the championship game is April 12. Caps have three regular season games remaining after that. Maybe he debuts in the playoffs? Beauvillier wasn't the most convincing third-line add. Oshie is not returning this season.

Avsolutely

2:06

Did Colorado pay too much for Coyle/Nelson/Lindgren? They sent a lot of picks and a couple high prospects out for guys who won’t be on the team after this season (barring extensions).

Josh Erickson

2:09

Avsolutely they did. I like the pickups in theory – they're good fits, but all overpays in terms of the assets they gave up. Reminds me of another team that won back-to-back championships not too long ago. If it works, it works – acquisition cost be damned. I especially dislike the Lindgren pickup so far. He's been a serious drag on their even-strength possession and a non-factor physically. The Coyle pickup saddles them with a tough contract through next season – Mittelstadt's rebound potential is obviously higher. I think Ritchie alone will give the Isles at least a few seasons of the quality of play Nelson has provided this year. Can't blame them for being in it to win it, but the amount of futures surrendered for a team with a bottom-10 prospect pool is really tough to stomach.

DStars

2:10

how far does Mikko move the needle for us? Wouldn’t have Seth Jones pushed it further?

Josh Erickson

2:13

No, not at all. You can break things up by positions however you like, but in the end, you've got five skaters on the ice in front of the goalie. 5v5 structure is more fluid than ever. I liked the Jones fit in theory, that doesn't mean I don't like the Rantanen one a whole lot better. It gives the Robertson-Hintz duo that extra touch of truly elite talent to play with that they haven't had before. Pavelski was awesome, but he's not Rantanen. The entire forward group is a possession menace. Assuming Heiskanen is back, the blue line is in good enough shape with Harley and Lindell rounding out the top half of their talent. I've liked what Bichsel's brought to the table thus far, too. When you have the chance to add a player of Rantanen's caliber, you take it.

trade deadline

2:14

There was a sellers market as players like Beauviller went for a 2nd rd pick. Why do you think Chicago couldn't get an acceptable offer for Donato ?

Josh Erickson

2:15

I don't think it's that Chicago couldn't get an "acceptable" offer for Donat. They weren't absolutely floored by anything they received and were close enough on an extension that they decided they'd rather hold onto him. The rebuild will never end if you trade away every good player.

Anonymous GM

2:15

Do you think the Canes make a big offer for Marner in light of their trade interest?

Josh Erickson

2:17

If he hits the market, yes. But if he has a strong playoff performance for the Leafs, they'll likely write him a blank check whenever their season ends. He's a crucial part of the team, but they obviously can't keep him around if 2025 ends like 2024 did for him. Just too sour of a taste for the room and the market at large. If they were willing to go to $12.5MM for Rantanen on eight years, I imagine they'll be one of multiple teams willing to go to $13MM. I think the Carolina market would be quite appealing to Marner as well – get out of the spotlight a little.

Who's Fabio?

2:17

Does Ovechkin keep playing to 1000 goals? Imagine..

Josh Erickson

2:18

No. I believe he told a Russian paper earlier this week that he doesn't envision re-signing when his current contract expires in 2026 and will retire from the NHL. If he's still healthy, he'll likely play a year or two in Russia before calling it quits.

draft

2:18

Roughly what range will Jake O Brien and Malcolm Spence of the OHL fall in the first round ? 10-15 and 15-25 respectively ?

Josh Erickson

2:23

I think that's a good call on O'Brien, although I personally have him in my top 10 and wouldn't be surprised if he goes in the 6-8 range. Spence is likely more solid 15-20 than all the way down to 25, but I have him later in my first.

Anonymous GM

2:23

Can we please get the Leafs winning the Atlantic and a first round matchup with the Sens. Been a while for the battle of Ontario playoff

Josh Erickson

2:26

Toronto's gone four-for-four in playoff meetings against the Sens, although it's worth noting they've now lost four in a row against them in the regular season. I like the way the Leafs have played better than their expected goals metrics indicate – they're creating a lot of chances now that have historically been undervalued or hard to capture by xG models. I'm not sure I'd take them over TB or FLA but would certainly give them the edge against Ottawa. Still the better possession team and better goaltending. Ullmark's great, but Woll has matched his level of play and Stolarz has been a tier above him.

rights

2:26

If Victor Soderstrom remains in Sweden for now, how long do the Blackhawks retain his signing rights ? Is it until he reaches UFA age at 27 ?

Josh Erickson

2:27

Great question, and you're correct. They have until July 1, 2028 to sign him.

Make SENSe

2:28

Who are your picks for 7/8 in each conf at the end of the year?

Josh Erickson

2:33

In the West, Minnesota basically has WC1 on lock. Not sure they catch back up to Colorado – I'm not betting they will, so pencil them in there. I think Calgary and Utah are the likeliest bets for WC2 in a vacuum, but the Blues have the easiest remaining schedule. Hell, they have three games against the Predators! I think New Jersey can hang onto third in the Metro. I wouldn't call Ottawa a lock for the first wild-card just yet, but they're pretty confidently in the picture here for me. I'd pick them to end up as WC1. All the other East teams have really tough schedules the rest of the way. Tossup between the Rangers and Blue Jackets. Columbus has the slightly tougher schedule, and there's still a lot of time left. I'm taking them, but it's very close.

Ekblad

2:33

Suspension aside, does the trade for Seth Jones and his $7 mill salary likely mean that Ekblad will not get an extension in Fla. and become an UFA ?

Josh Erickson

2:37

The Panthers have $19MM in projected cap space next year, with seven open roster spots. Their only notable RFA is Mackie Samoskevich. AFP Analytics projects a two-year deal at $2.5MM AAV for him. Let's pencil that in, leaving $16.5MM in space. Bennett is projected at $6.3MM on a six-year deal, and Ekblad is at $6.85MM for seven years. Assuming those terms are agreeable all around, they could manage to retain both. That leaves $3.35MM for four spots (on a full 23-player roster, which they could choose not to roll out of the gate). They can fill those with six-figure guys and stay right at the cap.

Brian

2:38

Colorado gave up way too much for Nelson, but it won’t matter if they win the Cup, could that actually happen? Looks like they will play Dallas in the first round and have never beaten them in the playoffs before.

Josh Erickson

2:40

Yeah, DAL/COL feels like a 60/40 series to me with the advantage in the Stars' direction. If they get out of that series, they likely draw the Jets in round two. I know they handled them last year, but Winnipeg's a better team this time around. They're a strong team, and I think they have a better chance of getting out of the "tough" division than their East comparables in Tampa and Toronto do. I'm not picking them to win a round because of their matchup, but I wouldn't be surprised if they make a run.

Whats the Yzerplan

2:40

Maybe you'll have a better explanation.... because I've been scratching my head... Can you explain Detroits need for Mrazek? And lack of improving for a playoff push?

Josh Erickson

2:42

I don't. I understand not wanting to pay what market prices were this deadline with how difficult their remaining schedule is – I actually think that's smart on Yzerman's behalf. They were trending downward heading into deadline day and are more than one pickup away from making a serious challenge, especially with Copp done from the year. I think he'd rather wait to do more extensive roster surgery until the summer. But I don't understand the Mrázek move in the slightest, especially since he's signed through next year. Lyon's clearly out the door, except he's been the far superior of the two goalies this year. Really don't get it.

Rags Fan

2:43

I wasn't overly disappointed with the moves Drury made... albeit I don't think they moved the needle much. Do you think Drury trades Krieder, Zib and/or Panarin over the summer? With about 10M left and needing to sign Cullye and KMiller... they need to do something, no?

Josh Erickson

2:45

They absolutely do. There's a serious offer-sheet risk for either Cuylle or Miller, particularly the latter, if they don't. Kreider is the only player of the three you mention who stands a reasonable chance at moving. He's the only one without a full no-move clause in his contract, and he carries the cheapest cap hit at $6.5MM. He's signed for two more years – one more than Panarin, but far less than what Zibanejad has remaining. Right now, that Lafrenière extension looks really ugly, doesn't it?

Ryker Evans

2:46

What do you think is a reasonable expectation for his next contract?

Josh Erickson

2:48

Pending additional sell-offs, Seattle doesn't have much cap flexibility next season. They have $20MM in space, not a ton of guys on expiring deals, though. Kakko needs a new deal as well. For that reason, I imagine they go short-term with Evans while keeping their free-agent and trade options open. Expect something in the $3-4MM range on a two- or three-year deal.

GMRF

2:48

What path do you think is more likely for the Kraken this offseason: a continued retool with selling off more veterans, or flipping some of their picks for immediate contributors? Or perhaps a bit of both?

Josh Erickson

2:50

3rd option is likeliest. Some of those contracts are just dead weight – Burakovsky's in particular. I don't imagine they'll modify the defense much. I also don't think they envision still needing two first-rounders in both 2026 or 2027, so some of those picks will start to move pretty soon.

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