JotCast | PHR Live Chat: 11/6/24

PHR Live Chat: 11/6/24

Josh Erickson

1:58

Hey folks! I'll start answering questions at the top of the hour.

Medic Mike

2:00

When speaking of goalie development, would you say it’s more the mental or physical aspect that takes longer than the other positions?

Josh Erickson

2:03

Mental, for sure. And I don't mean that as a synonym for maturity, although that is undoubtedly a part of any player's development, not just goaltenders. The most significant difference from the NHL to other leagues isn't just the skill – it's the speed. The processing time players have in their minds to make decisions is so much shorter. For skaters, it's an easier transition. They have four other teammates on the ice to bail them out. But goaltenders are on their own. Athleticism certainly takes some time to develop, and the lack of footspeed required for the position often lends itself to goaltenders being more effective than skaters later in their careers. But things like puck-tracking, fighting through traffic... that's a huge change from NCAA/CHL ranks and even the AHL, to an extent. Plus, as I said earlier, it does take a more mature personality to be able to bounce back from mistakes and avoid the hockey version of the yips.

Nick

2:03

Dallas making any calls on defenders? Fowler, Provorov or maybe even Arber Xhekaj, which would require the most in a return and which one with the least

Josh Erickson

2:07

Fowler and Provorov, haha. Didn't the Stars already hit their quota of declining defenders making a name for themselves based on how good they were five years ago when they signed Dumba?

In all seriousness, I don't see them going after any of those names. I see no indication that the Canadiens are willing to entertain offers for Xhekaj. Let's be honest: Does he move the needle for a contender in the slightest? He's younger, but at the moment, I'm not sure what he provides that a guy already in-house like Brendan Smith doesn't.

Although I think you're on the right track of them acquiring a left-shot defenseman to allow Heiskanen to return to his off-side with Harley on the top pairing. Dumba with Heiskanen just really hasn't worked. I think Heiskanen's been underwhelming defensively so far this season, but with Harley there, at least that pairing has far more juice offensively.

Ed Snider's Ghost

2:07

Who will be first to go Briere or Tortorella? There has to be a better way... why are the Flyers so bad?

Josh Erickson

2:09

Yeah, it's been rough for the Flyers, and it's not just goaltending. Let's look at some 5-on-5 numbers:

Shot attempt share: 52.1% in 2023-24, 46.0% in 2024-25
Scoring chance share: 52.9% in 2023-24, 45.6% in 2024-25
High-danger chance share: 53.3% in 2023-24, 38.5%(!!!!!) in 2024-25

2:10

Last season, the Flyers played like a half-decent team. Really, it was admirable. But they were sunk by subpar goaltending (Ersson was overtaxed) and they shot at nearly two points below the league average. Their record (38-33-11) certainly makes sense given those two caveats.

***half-decent playoff team

2:13

You can place blame on Fedotov's and Kolosov's performances as backups. They haven't been good. But they're not the only issue. The team simply isn't controlling play like they were last year. The good news – Couturier's defensive numbers are back where they usually are. I'd like to see a little more offense, but he's playing like a top-six center again. Konecny extension looks like a great deal so far. But players who had very good defensive impacts last season, namely Tyson Foerster and Nick Seeler, haven't been able to replicate them.

At least Ersson's taken a step forward? But yeah, it's quickly becoming apparent that some players' success under Tortorella last season was fluky.

ice time

2:13

Is Matt Woods' transfer to Minn affecting Oliver Moore's ice or PP time on their hockey team which is reducing his offensive output ?

Josh Erickson

2:15

I'd have a little patience with Moore. I do think his ice time has been cut a little, but I wouldn't point directly to Wood's addition. They've got a much deeper offensive group overall than last year, in my opinion, and head coach Bob Motzko is taking full advantage. They've pretty much been rolling four lines and have talent spread out. It's been affecting Snuggerud's production too, to some extent.

Cbj4life

2:16

Who do you think the jackets will target in a trade .. hopefully not a bad player with a lot of money on his term

Josh Erickson

2:18

I mean, if it helps you gain assets, why wouldn't you? The young core is at a point where they're exciting/proficient enough to draw attention on their own, and at least early on, they appear to have emerged from the lowest levels of the league's basement. But the prospect pool isn't quite where it needs to be to shift into ascension mode out of the rebuild – just needs a few more pieces. If taking on a bad contract for 1-2 years (CBJ have indicated they aren't willing to do 3+, we covered this recently) helps them do that, I don't see that being an issue at all.

lineup

2:19

Even though Reichel is doing well with Smith and Maroon on a 4th line, is it a good idea to keep him there permanently or would it be better to move him up to the 3rd line and see what happens ?

Josh Erickson

2:21

Depends on what you mean by permanently. He's shown to me this season that he still has fringe top-six upside. I'd give him a longer run in his current role since he's obviously confident there – maybe even for the rest of the season – but yeah, he should be seeing third-line usage at minimum come 2025-26.

If he can't handle that, it might be time to cut bait there and move him to a different environment. Likelihood of him popping if he's not ready for those minutes at age 23 is pretty low.

rating

2:21

If you were to grade Kyle Davidson as a GM so far, what would you give him ?

Josh Erickson

2:23

I'd hand out a B. I really liked his 2023 draft, not so much his 2024 (although I still thought it was fine, just not what I was expecting). But the pool is pretty well stocked at every position, he's done well to insulate his club with serviceable veterans on short-term deals, and their record this season is finally starting to show it (I told you all a few wins would come!). I still think they're on target to hover around 70 points this season, a pretty demonstrable step forward from the last two years.

Shark attack

2:23

Does the return of Celebrini significantly help the Sharks or is he too young and inexperienced to make a difference ?

Josh Erickson

2:26

I mean, it's kind of early to make a call on that after two NHL games, haha. If nothing else, it helps the Sharks by allowing guys like Granlund, Zetterlund, and Wennberg to have some focus taken off them. But I do think we'll be talking about Celebrini as a legitimate impact piece for them by this time next month.

Whether he makes much of a difference to their record remains to be seen, but that's more an indictment of the rest of the roster than Celebrini.

prospect

2:26

Do you think Gavin Hayes can develop into a bottom six nhl forward given his shot and size or is his skating still an issue even for the 3rd and 4th lines ?.

Josh Erickson

2:28

Fairly certain I've talked about Hayes in here before, but yeah, I like him as a bottom-six guy. Feel like he'll be someone you'd rather have as your 4LW but could play 3LW if needed.

draft

2:28

As of now, how many forwards are in the top tier for the 2025 draft including Hagens ?

Josh Erickson

2:29

I haven't seriously started paying attention to the 2025 class yet this year... I usually wait until closer to New Year's for a large enough sample to really start formulating opinions. But I think it's fair to say that Hagens, Martone and Misa are all options for first overall at this stage.

Big Al

2:31

You seemed really down on the Kings, but their holding their own so far without Doughty and he should be back be late December. The oilers window is closing because once they extend McDavid they will have to fill the roster with players making under a million. Thoughts on the Kings and the future of the Oilers.

Josh Erickson

2:32

I was, and so far, mea culpa. That record's despite subpar goaltending, which is a step back from last year. It's legitimate team improvement under Hiller so far – no real anomalies.

2:34

For one, this is the Brandt Clarke I thought they were getting and the one who I had ranked first overall for most of his draft year. He's so dynamic back there, and I'm really glad to see him getting his flowers. But overall, Vladislav Gavrikov has just been an absolute unit – controlling 55.6% of shot attempts, +10 rating, 31 blocks... the point totals haven't been there, but he's been invaluable.

2:35

Also... where the hell did Alex Laferrière come from? Team-high eight goals, and while his 24.2% shooting rate will come down, it's not *completely* cracked. His 64 shot attempts are tied for third on the team. Legitimate top-six forward there, at least so far. That one really came out of nowhere for me.

2:37

And the Oilers will be fine once they figure out a way to get out of the Nurse contract. The cap will be rising so quickly here that I don't think they'll be as limited as people think.

Darrell73

2:40

Play gm and say which player or players the oilers should make a move on before they fall further out of the race and since Delia has been lights out in Bakersfield should they consider giving him a look over Pickard and finally what going on with the special teams they have been pretty stinky thus far

Josh Erickson

2:43

Special teams will have some positive regression here. Delia's last NHL chance was so disastrous, as was his run in AHL Manitoba last year. Need to see more than four games from him before giving him another NHL chance.

2:44

Like in past seasons, I think the best medicine for the Oilers is to just wait. They've been dominating 5-on-5 play. J. Skinner will start shooting more than 7.5%.

2:45

But the depth scoring is what's concerning me. Would like to see them go after a piece like Morgan Frost out of Philly if they decide to move him.

So sleepy

2:46

Just woke up from watching the NFL trade deadline and wanted to know why they are so cheap when it comes to rentals and why playoff bound NHL teams are forced to pay a premium? I would think winning a Super Bowl would drive teams to pay a higher cost than those competing for a Stanley Cup, but it is just not the case...plus NHL trade deadline generally a lot more exciting for their fans. Your thoughts?

Josh Erickson

2:47

Funny you say that. NHL trades are just so hard to predict. Jake Guentzel didn't land a first-rounder while Sean Walker did.

Clayton Keller

2:48

is it weird we are seeing players benched or healthy scratches so early in the year?

Josh Erickson

2:49

No, not at all. In fact, this is normally the time when it happens in an effort to jumpstart guys' game rather than waiting until January. Get the resets and any potential bad blood out of the way early so disputes/issues have more runway to resolve themselves before the stretch run.

Rags Fan

2:49

Do the Rangers give in to Sheterkins alleged demands? If not, do they sign long term and how much? Also... who ultimately ends up as the odd man out on D..... Jones, Mancini, Lindgren Trouba via trade??

Josh Erickson

2:50

I would. As long as they keep playing the way they are, Shesterkin may be worth more than what he's already asking for. This core has yet to really dominate 5-on-5 play since their post-COVID resurgence... he's the most valuable goaltender in the league, IMO. They'd be in a very dangerous place without him.

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