JotCast | PHR Live Chat: 11/27/24

PHR Live Chat: 11/27/24

Josh Erickson

1:55

Hey folks, I'll get started answering the plenty of questions in the queue at the top of the hour.

Cbj4life

2:00

What kind of return will we get for our young dman

Josh Erickson

2:01

I'd imagine Jiříček's value has fallen slightly from sixth overall because of how little the Blue Jackets have deployed him. Still, I can't imagine they get anything less than a first-round pick (or equivalently valuable asset) back in return. The sooner they move on, the higher his trade value will be. He loses precious development time in his new environment every week they wait.

entry level deal

2:01

Junior prospect Alex Pharand is a big winger which the Blackhawks don't have many of. If he ends up with about a point per game at Sudbury (which is much better than last year), do you think he'll get an entry level deal ?

Josh Erickson

2:04

Yes, it's a big improvement, but it's also in his second post-draft season. That's usually nothing to write home about if that's where the jump occurs. I imagine it'll likely come down to the wire. I don't see the Blackhawks getting a mid-season ELC done with him. They'll likely wait until sometime between the end of the campaign and the June 1 deadline to sign him. One thing working in Pharand's favor – the Blackhawks still have eight open contract slots.

Slang

2:04

It seems like Ovechkin is recovering quickly for his Fractured Fibula. What's the earliest you think we can see him play?

Josh Erickson

2:05

No hiccups so far, yep. But I also haven't seen anything that suggests he'll be back earlier than his projected timeline. How out and about he's been and the lack of any reported setbacks makes me reasonably confident he'll return at the shorter end of his timeline, though. I'd circle 12/20 at home vs. Carolina.

2:06

That's still 10 games to go without him. Not an insignificant chunk in a tight division by any stretch.

waivers

2:06

When Arvid Soderblom loses his waiver exempt status in a few more games, will he likely be claimed if placed on waivers ?

Josh Erickson

2:09

Yeah, that's something to monitor. Four more appearances before he needs waivers to return to Rockford. The question is whether they'll even need to send him down. Brossoit is over a month past his initial projected return and is still out indefinitely. If it's becoming this much of an issue, it's likely not prudent for him to try and play this season at all. If that's the case, Söderblom obviously sticks around. But with how well he's played and given he's a pending RFA, I imagine they trade a goalie if Brossoit's health forces them into a crunch instead of exposing Söderblom to waivers. .926 SV% in six games on the Hawks is a huge leap forward. Among the 64 goalies to play at least five games this season, his 0.625 goals saved above expected per 60 ranks ninth – higher than guys like Wolf, Stolarz, Sorokin, Saros, etc.

Ranger meltdown

2:09

How do modified no-trade clauses work? Does a player submit a list of teams he can't be traded to before the season starts and if so, can he alter it during season?... or is it submitted just when a teams GM asks for it?

Josh Erickson

2:12

There's no overarching rule; it's on a case-by-case basis. Sometimes, clauses can even change in-season. It's rare, but a player and team could agree to a 15-team no-trade clause dropping to a five-team one in February of a given season when the contract is initially registered, for example.

Usually, though, these clauses go into effect on the technical start date for the given season (July 1). For modified no-trade clauses, players generally have to submit their list on a yearly basis before or on that date, although, again, there's wiggle room there. Generally, for full no-trade clauses and full no-movement clauses, teams can ask at any time if a player is willing to waive them and for what teams.

development

2:12

Isn't it better to develop someone in your own system in the AHL than have him stay longer in college where you have less control over his on ice and off ice situation ?

Josh Erickson

2:15

Arguably yes, in most cases. But if you're a team with a deep prospect pool, there are only so many spots on an AHL roster. Why rush a player receiving top-six or top-four minutes in college over to the pros if you can't give them ample ice time to develop properly?

gmm8811

2:15

Do coaches and GM's have agents like the players? Do they have any type of union?

Josh Erickson

2:16

Yes, it's common for coaches and GMs to have agents, but they can't be certified player agents. It's even dicey to have an agent that works for the same firm as someone else who represents an NHLer. Kyle Dubas got in hot water with the NHLPA for this last year, although I don't believe any discipline was ultimately handed out.

https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2023/05/nhlpa-investigating-kyle-dubas...

2:17

To my knowledge, coaches and GMs aren't unionized. There is, however, the NHL Coaches' Association that provides a lot of union-like support. https://nhlcoaches.com/about/

Rinzel

2:18

I recently read that Rinzel is progressing very well at Minn. especially on the defensive side. If you have seen him at all in your area, do you agree ?

Josh Erickson

2:21

I certainly agree. He'll never be a shutdown dynamo (he was never going to be), but it's pretty clear to me that he's developed enough, at this stage, to be reasonably confident he won't be a deal-breaking liability at the NHL level. I would be okay with him turning pro next spring if I'm Chicago.

Aidan

2:21

Early predictions on who is a buyer/seller for the trade deadline:

Josh Erickson

2:25

I'll give you this list... teams that I think will be buyers that also project to have more than $2MM in deadline cap space, enough to make a legitimately significant add with 50% retained: WPG ($11.9MM), DAL ($6.6MM), TBL ($4.8MM), VAN ($2.5MM), VGK ($5.3MM), FLA ($2.5MM), COL ($4.6MM if Landeskog doesn't play), NYR ($2.8MM), LAK ($10.2MM), NYI ($9MM)

2:26

Toronto will try to add a center, but the financials are just too early to suss out with so many injuries right now. The Rangers won't be sellers. I'm not hearing it. If they're dealing Kreider and Trouba, it's for younger (or simply more cost-effective) immediate help.

draft

2:27

Even though it's still early, in order to get a potential top line F, as of now do you need to draft in the top 3 in 2025 or top 5 would suffice ?

Josh Erickson

2:30

Top four, because I'm confident at this stage that defenseman Matthew Schaefer will go in the top three and push one of Porter Martone or Michael Misa to fourth overall. Fifth would be a stretch. I'm not ready to call any other forward in this draft a bona fide top-line piece. Honestly, after the first few players, I've been overall disappointed in this class. Still early, as you say, but there's quite a large dropoff here from the 2024 class in terms of talent available in the 5OA-20OA range

BB-STC

2:30

Will Kaprizov stay in Minnesota? What will his next contract look like?

Josh Erickson

2:32

They've got to get it done, and I think they will. I have a hard time seeing a $13MM AAV at this stage unless he manages to hit 115-120 points this season, which, at the rate he's going, is entirely possible. On pace for 138 in 81 games (already missed one due to injury). Realistically, I'd bet on 8x12.5.

2:33

They're essentially gaining $13.1MM in space this summer with the Parise/Suter buyouts diminishing.

Blue Note

2:35

With the coaching change, will the Blues make any trades (Saad, Faska, Leddy, Suter...) or do they feel they have the team to get them to the playoffs?

Josh Erickson

2:38

I don't think the coaching change is enough to get them into the playoffs, although it's awfully ironic to say that about the Blues.

I feel for Bannister, but if they're hell-bent on playoffs this season, he wasn't going to get them there. Only controlling 46.4% of scoring chances at 5v5 won't get you there unless you have elite finishing (which they don't) and a stud goaltender (which they haven't gotten out of Binnington yet).

Penalty kill is meh. Power play is bad. Let's see what the new coach bump brings, but they were trending toward possibly even being a bottom-five team, IMO. Bottom 10 for sure.

I do imagine they'll flip a couple of those guys you mentioned, but for the purposes of selling/retooling as compared to trying to leverage them for big-name help right now.

Pens fan

2:38

How much longer will the Pens employ Sullivan? Any chance 1 or 2 of the big 3 waiver their no trade clause?

Josh Erickson

2:42

Letang, maybe, but I don't think it matters. He's got four years left on that contract, and I don't believe that's moveable, no matter how much they retain.

Not really surprised that Sullivan isn't gone. I believe the Penguins front office puts the primary blame for their record on themselves (i.e. goaltending) rather than the coaching staff, which I'll buy. The Penguins haven't been elite by any stretch, but their possession numbers are fine. Special teams are average. The expectation was middle-of-the-pack and fight for a wild card position, which they'd be in if it weren't for goaltending and continuously horrid finishing. Again, that's more of management failure than a coaching one.

Joe

2:42

It seems the issues with the Rangers start with the GM. Waiving Goodrow, trying to trade Trouba in the offseason, negotiating with Igor in the press, now trade rumors for Touba, Kreider, Miller and Lindgren. Is it time to fire Drury?

Josh Erickson

2:47

If Goodrow, Trouba, etc. are telling the truth, he still has quite a lot of respect from his players even if the fans may disagree with how he conducts business. I won't insert my opinion into that, just putting it out there.

Regarding roster construction, this team should be better than it is – full stop. They're really starting to get caved at even strength, which I'd normally say is a coaching issue, but this isn't an anomaly. They had pretty meh possession numbers last year and still won the Presidents' Trophy. Now, they're below-average enough that it's becoming unable to be ignored, plus Shesterking being good, not great.

TLDR: Can't complain about how the roster looks on paper, coaching has been underwhelming, but at some point it falls on Drury as well to make changes and listen to what the data is telling him. He either didn't do that or failed to address it properly.

paul

2:47

Assuming Ovie comes back healthy in 5 weeks. What additional trades should Caps make? And who moved out? And When. Pucing on Eller early was smart. I can see Milano and Vrana and McIlrath and Alexev as tradeable but not going to get much in return. Any thoughts on trade targets?

Josh Erickson

2:48

Yeah, it's probably time to cut bait on Alexeyev. I think he's a serviceable No. 7/No. 6 guy that should draw some interest given his first-round pedigree, but you're certainly not getting a first-round pick back.

2:50

Defense is full, performing well, and not to be touched. Wonder if you could package some assets along with Milano and Vrána (won't have much trade value, just to make contract/money math work) for an upgrade at wing in the middle six, though.

Uncle Lou

2:50

Odds of me trading Nelson and Palmieri closer to the deadline? What can I get for each one if I retain 50% salary?

Josh Erickson

2:51

Still pretty low. I think the Islanders have done enough without Barzal/Duclair/Pelech etc. to keep them in the fight. The lead-blowing is becoming laughable but that's gotta turn around at some point. They won't sell unless they have no other choice, and I do still think they'll be a legitimate wild card contender come deadline day.

Rob

2:51

What is a fair offer for David Jiricek by the Wild?

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