JotCast | PHR Live Chat: 11/20/24

PHR Live Chat: 11/20/24

Josh Erickson

1:54

Hi, everyone! I'll get started with questions at the top of the hour. I already see about 20 in the queue!

Roger Collins

1:59

I keep hearing names like Bergy and other former players being mentioned...but who do you feel will be the next head coach of the Boston Bruins?

Josh Erickson

2:02

Plenty of Montgomery questions expected today, and for good reason. This one is unique. I don't get the sense that Bergeron is a serious contender for head coach or even a position on the bench staff, although I do think it won't be too long before he's more officially involved with the organization in some capacity.

If they're looking at a former (recent) Bruins player, the answer is Chris Kelly. He's been on staff as an assistant since the 2021-22 campaign. However, I wouldn't be surprised at all to at least see them ride out the rest of the year with Sacco, just to see what they have. I struggle to see a front office that's still fully intent on having their club compete for a championship going with someone without head coaching experience at the NHL level. Sacco had four seasons with the Avs from 2010 to 2013, not an insignificant amount of experience.

2:03

If they decide not to keep going with Sacco going forward, then I imagine they wait until the summer and see who ends up on the market. But as things stand, I'd expect Sacco to remain as interim for the rest of the season.

Nick

2:03

is Stankoven favored for the Calder, and where does Oettinger finish in the Vezina?

Josh Erickson

2:06

Oh, man. My top three for the Calder right now are certainly Stankoven, Michkov and Wolf. Not really sure in what order, though. I think I would give Stankoven the edge because of his even-strength production and better defensive metrics than Michkov, but I have a feeling this one might be down the wire as Michkov continues to settle into NHL play.

I believe Tsyplakov is Calder-eligible by about four days, haha. He's a name to watch, too. I'll eat crow – he's been quite impressive.

2:08

And right now, I'd have Oettinger in the 4-6 range. Certainly having a bounce-back year, but I think guys like Dostál, Talbot, Hellebuyck, Stolarz, Wolf get more votes. Talbot has been absolutely out of his mind in Detroit given how poor his defense has played.

mike18

2:08

Is the old version of ep40 back or have the last few games been outliers for the year?

Josh Erickson

2:10

Eh. I need him to be shooting more. Funny enough, the one game in his last five that he was held without a point (vs. NYI on Nov. 14), he had six shots on goal. He certainly looks more himself, and it'll be interesting to see what happens to his production (particularly assist totals) with Miller out for a bit. I wouldn't call those games outliers – I am an EP40 believer – but I wouldn't say "we're so back" yet. Need a bit of a larger sample size.

position switch

2:11

Even though he had 2 assists last night and is bad on faceoffs, wouldn't it be better to move Bedard back to center and have Dickinson play LW with him ?

Josh Erickson

2:13

Eh, I don't think much of the experiment. Don't blame Richardson for trying it for a couple games just to see how it works out.

But yeah, Bedard is at his most explosive when he's playing down the middle. I understand moving him to the wing for a small stretch to take some of the pressure off him and get some confidence back in his game. That 5.5% shooting rate would be pretty demoralizing for anybody. Needs to work on draws, for sure, but other than that, I don't see this as more than a three- or four-game thing.

2:14

As an aside, I've been really impressed with how Bedard has upped his two-way play when he was still down the middle, and the numbers back that up. Just needs the goal totals to come back.

Took McDavid three years before he was above 45% on faceoffs, btw. Especially for guys coming in at 18, that takes a while.

DuBOSS

2:15

Do you think the Penguins can move anyone of note this year from their highest paid players? (Sid, Geno, Letang, Karlson, Jarry, Rust, Rakell)

Josh Erickson

2:16

There's still no indication that either Crosby or the Penguins' front office is even close to entertaining a move. Most of the quotes thrown out over the past week have named him as the only untouchable, in fact. Let's just quiet that there, and I don't think Malkin will waive his NMC unless Sid does too.

2:17

Not sure there's really much interest in Letang with four years left. AAV is fine, but I don't think there's a team in the league that's signing him to a four-year deal if he hits free agency tomorrow. The PR campaign against Karlsson right now is enough to tank his value. Same thing with Jarry, just too much term left on that deal for anyone to view him as a net positive in a trade.

2:18

I do think Rakell and Rust are probably out the door by deadline day, though. Again, four-year term is tough, but they're still positive value relative to their cap hits at the moment, and the deals expiring at age 36 and 35 are much more palatable than Letang, who's already 37.

goalie

2:22

With Gajan and Commesso both struggling a bit this season, do you think they are in Chicago's long term goalie plans after Mrazek leaves ?

Josh Erickson

2:25

Commesso's track record speaks for itself far more than Gajan's does, although Gajan is younger. Even if Commesso's numbers don't rebound a ton, I still think it would be irresponsible to write him off. Those NCAA numbers and his strong rookie showing in Rockford don't just disappear. I would be a bit more concerned about Gajan, but again, I think you at least need to give him some AHL time until you write him off completely.

draft

2:25

How many years do you think it takes to evaluate a team's draft with many 18 yr olds - 3, 4, or even 5 ?

Josh Erickson

2:26

Four or five, yeah. That's how long it'll be before any late-round picks are sniffing around for spots, and it's a long enough runway for anyone who appears to be a bust at first glance to turn it around (Lafrenière)

Sweeney

2:28

Since I went out and bought the groceries, if things continue like this, will I realistically be given my pink slip in the next calendar year, along with my buddy Cam? (please say yes!) Overpaid FA's and goalie, no impact prospects, poor drafting and typically a "one and done" playoff record the last decade. This has been coming for a while. I just got lucky for a few years there..

Josh Erickson

2:29

I mean yeah, if the Bruins stay hovering around .500, it's over for them. I think a lot of it hinges particularly on whether Elias Lindholm and Nikita Zadorov can figure it out. Those are some long-term gambles that are not at all paying dividends yet, and easily could be the longest-lasting part of their failures to continue icing a Cup contender more than failing to land an impact prospect.

2:30

I wouldn't say they got lucky. Elite goaltending is one of a few ways to build a playoff team, and they were the best at identifying that for a while. But failing to identify goaltending as the main reason for success and not properly addressing the holes elsewhere in the roster as a failsafe, given how volatile netminders are, is absolutely a stain on Sweeney.

Dblek

2:32

What is the Pens next move? Fire Sullivan? Made a huge trade involving a superstar? Or just keep trading off players and sitting at the bottom of the league?

Josh Erickson

2:37

Simply put, this team's biggest problem is goaltending. Firing Sullivan won't fix that.

The Penguins are above water in terms of shot attempts (52%) and high-danger chances (51.7%) at 5-on-5. Their PK is above average by about three points and their PP is below average by less than one point.

One issue to point out: shots without scoring chances. They're getting a good amount of high-danger looks but too many low-danger ones. Not enough medium-quality chances. That could be a coaching thing, could be a luck thing, hard to tell. They're shooting 8.7% as a team, have to imagine that will regress up to the 10.6% league average regardless of whether they can Sullivan.

Questions about morale are legitimate, though. If Sullivan's lost the room, it kind of doesn't matter what the analytics are. No team with in-fighting is going anywhere. As I said, I don't think the groundwork is there (yet) for a flashy trade. There may be next year. I think you shop the depth pieces, deal MPettersson

No use hanging onto Marcus if you're headed for a rebuild. He'd probably net you the biggest return out of anybody.

rogueraceseries@gmail.com

2:37

Do you predict Derek Lalonde will be fired as HC of the Red Wings?

Josh Erickson

2:39

Always did, still do. They're still getting demolished at 5-on-5. A 32% PP with a bottom-five offense? That's tough to imagine, but it's the truth in Detroit. The fact that they're below .500 despite Cam Talbot tossing up a .920 should make the decision pretty easy.

injury

2:39

AA was injured at AHL Rockford and is projected to be out over a month ad miss a lot of games. Can he be placed on LTIR and have the remainder of his salary taken off the Blackhawks' cap in addition to the $1.15 mill already not charged ?

Josh Erickson

2:41

Great question. No, they can't call him up just to place him on long-term injured reserve. Players can't be sent between the NHL and AHL while injured, and obviously, they'd need to call him up for an LTIR placement.

It also makes no sense for the Blackhawks to use LTIR, given they have over $5MM in current space. Teams don't accrue cap space when using LTIR, so they'd severely limit their ability to take on contracts/retain salary at the trade deadline.

CapsFanInNC

2:42

What do you make of the Ovechkin injury? Seems (as always) that we won’t get any prognosis on recovery time beyond week-to-week, nor specifics on what the problem is. Thoughts?

Josh Erickson

2:42

I wouldn't say that. The week-to-week announcement was after an initial evaluation. He's undergoing further tests this week, so the prognosis isn't complete. Whether they update his timeline with those results remains to be seen, but the team doesn't have a complete picture yet.

Cronin

2:43

Any chance Anaheim offers Montgomery the head coaching job for 2025-26 and beyond?

Josh Erickson

2:45

I would. I saw this question in the queue and did a little bit of digging, still not sure how long they signed Cronin for but I can't imagine it was for much longer than two years. Not sure if he needs an extension. He's not working out as a development coach. Would still like to see Cronin in a different NHL environment. But as of now, can't imagine Anaheim bringing him back whenever his contract is up. Would imagine Montgomery and David Carle would be the two guys at the top of their list.

Joe D

2:46

do you think the red wings be the next team to make a coaching change? and is there any chance steve yzerman’s job is in jeopardy?

Josh Erickson

2:47

Yes and yes. The Yzerplan is in year six and they're still one of the worst possession teams in the NHL, despite his drafting tendencies indicating that's how he wants to construct the roster. It's not working at all.

Tim

2:47

The Red Wings seem to be in the middle of no man’s land right now with some of their contracts almost immovable like Chariot, Holl, Compher, and Copp. The continue to draft players that they term 200 ft players but have no goal scores in their so called deep prospect pool. Are there any trades out there that they can make to improve this team or are we looking at a serious regression from the end of the year excitement by missing the playoffs in a tie breaker?

Josh Erickson

2:51

I don't think this season is salvageable, but I certainly think 2025-26 is.

Chiarot only has one year left. Buy him out, it's a cap hit of less than $2MM each in 2025-26 and 2026-27. I can't imagine a universe where they don't.

I'd be a little more patient with Compher and Copp. I know Compher is off to a slow start this year, but I liked what he brought in 2023-24. Pending UFAs Kane and Petry will be addition by subtraction given their possession numbers. One thing for Detroit to hang their hat on – Simon Edvinsson certainly looks like he'll be the real deal. He's really impressed me and could certainly be a top-four guy on a playoff team in 2026.

Brett

2:51

Can the Rangers sign Shesterkin already…. What is your guess on what it will take and when?

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