JotCast | PHR Live Chat: 11/13/24

PHR Live Chat: 11/13/24

Josh Erickson

1:57

Hi folks! Plenty of questions in the queue today. I'll start answering at the top of the hour.

rating

2:00

On an average team would you consider Kirby Dach a top six F or a middle six F ?

Josh Erickson

2:02

Middle six, for sure. I still absolutely think he has second-line upside long-term, but I'd be hesitant to ever forecast him in an everyday first-line role, at least on a club with consistent playoff aspirations. I get this season isn't going the way he wants it to, but he's shooting at 3.4%. Give him a bit of time, the point totals will climb. Year-over-year, he likely averages around 55 points per 82 games in his prime. Perfectly serviceable second-liner, but with the way scoring is trending, not sure that's an everyday first-liner any more.

CapsFanInNC

2:02

Personally, I love the Eller reacquisition, but what are your thoughts? The 3C spot has been (by far) the weakest link and neither Lapierre nor Sgarbossa has grabbed the reigns. On the surface, “the tiger” will fill that role, eat some PK minutes, and shore up the third line with Mangiapane and Vrana (whom are already familiar with one another from the 2018 Cup run). A lot

Josh Erickson

2:04

I'm with you. Eller has been quite good this season – seven points, 46.5 CF% at even strength despite some pretty disadvantageous deployment. He's certainly seeing fewer OZ starts than he did at any point in Washington. Veteran presence, knows the organization, still managed 31 points last year. Really like that pickup, and good on the Caps' front office for rewarding their team.

Darrell73

2:04

Are the Winnipeg jets for real do you think they will eventually have to address the need for a legitimate second line center can hellebuyck win both the vezina and hart that would be pretty incredible I mean kaprizov is right up there and finally kudos to jets fans for roasting oettinger that was pretty amusing

Josh Erickson

2:07

Yeah, I can't see Vladislav Namestnikov hitting the 62 points he's on pace for, haha. Things will cool down in Winnipeg – looking at you, ridiculously unsustainable team 14.5% shooting rate.

They're absolutely a playoff team. I still thought they were despite the losses in free agency. But there are some concerning numbers. Even if Hellebuyck keeps this level of play up (and I think he will to an extent), the Jets are only controlling 45.5% of high-danger chances at 5-on-5. That's a gigantic red flag and something they'll need to clean up while not getting too confident with their record.

And yeah, Hellebuyck absolutely deserves both awards right now. What a start.

prospect

2:08

Do you recall roughly where (what round) you had Martin Misiak ranked on your own 2023 draft list ? His stats have been underwhelming at Erie so far and he was the pmiary return from NYR for Kane.

Josh Erickson

2:11

Had him in my third. Certainly thought the Blackhawks reached a bit with the pick, but not by a ton. He's taking steps forward this season. I get the point production isn't quite what some were expecting, but I also think he's an effective enough forechecker that his game is pretty translatable. People viewing Misiak as a potential top-six piece were misled, IMO. Still think he's got it in him to be a valuable bottom-six winger, though.

production

2:11

Didn't you expect more offense from Ilya Mikheyev in Chicago based on his prior track record ? His numbers are trending down the last few seasons. Is it more likely age-related or attitude related (didn't want to be traded to Chicago after playing for 2 Canadian teams)?

Josh Erickson

2:13

Could be age-related, he's 30. Don't have the time in this medium to do a deep dive, but the lack of shots on goal are certainly concerning. He's got 20 through 15 games... 1.33 per game compared to 1.88 last year (in slightly more ice time, no less).

2:15

I think a great deal of it is how he's being deployed. From what I can tell, at even strength, he's being started almost exclusively in shutdown situations (many more DZ starts than in years past). That'll do it.

slang1987

2:15

What do you think of the Lars Eller trade to the Capitals? Do you think Lapierre will return to the minors now?

Josh Erickson

2:16

Gave my piece about Eller, but I will say I do think it's probably beneficial to leave Sgarbossa up as the extra F and let Lapierre go back to Hershey, even if it's just for a short time. He doesn't have much more to prove, but it would be nice for him to have a few weeks to get his confidence back, at least.

Mike

2:16

Love this chat. So i was wondering why someone like Jiricek is constantly a healthy scratch and not sent down to play. Seems like a waste of potentially 2 years of NHL action. And I thought he would get his chance and then they go and pick up Fabbro? What is going on with the club and their plan for him.

Josh Erickson

2:19

I feel like I've been getting asked this question for years, and I'm no closer to coming up with an answer. He needs to play, it's as simple as that. Saw this the other day from the venerable David St-Louis over at Elite Prospects, who distills it pretty well: https://x.com/DavidSt_Louis/status/1856406886205296768

Rags Fan

2:20

I know this isn't an easy question to answer.... but what fixes do you think the Rangers need to be a true contender?

Josh Erickson

2:26

Step 1: stop flirting with breaking up the Miller-Fox pairing. They've been among the most dominant in the league this season. Among pairings with at least 50 minutes together, they're sixth with an xGF% of 67.3, according to the good folks over at MoneyPuck. Let Lindgren ride with... whoever. Schneider's been good. I'm not too worried about the defense.

I am worried, however, about the Kreider-Zibanejad-Smith line. The point totals are there, I guess. Nine in 14 is nice for Smith after the year he had in Pittsburgh last season. But they're not grading out well at all defensively and in my eyes, it's a net negative right now.

Don't touch the bottom six. It's been pristine. That's extremely promising come playoff time.

Clayton Keller

2:26

A.month into the season, who do you think (who was expected to compete for the playoffs) should be worried about how they've played and their potential playoff chances?

Josh Erickson

2:30

Detroit. Thought they'd take a step back from last season, and so far I'll pat myself on the back there. The fact that they're not over .500 despite a .926 SV% from Talbot should be all you need to know. I don't think the offense is this bad. Obviously, Raymond won't keep shooting at 4.3%. But they're still not anywhere close to controlling play at 5-on-5 and the depth scoring just hasn't been there at all. Likely ticketed for another bottom-10 finish.

John

2:30

Can you tell me what The Ducks are trying to do? Is it me or do they look worse than last year? Seems like all their prospects, rather than take a step up, have taken a step back. Mintyukov, Carlsson, Zegras, McTavish. But gotta give Dostal credit.

Josh Erickson

2:33

I am a little concerned about Mintyukov, mainly about how he'll develop under Cronin. He's at his best when he's allowed to make plays. Having his dZS% at 65.4 compared to 50.9 last year does absolutely nothing to accomplish that. I get wanting to develop his all-around game but making him a shutdown player? Not gonna work. Why would you want to? That's not what they drafted him for.

So I wouldn't be concerned about him in a vacuum, more about the coaching.

2:36

Carlsson's been okay. His linemates have been kind of snake-bit. His assist totals will climb here, I think. McTavish has been banged up, it looks like.

Zegras is just a head-scratcher. You can make an argument that he's been their least effective forward. No, he won't keep shooting at 3.8%. But he's shown no demonstrable improvement anywhere in his game for two years now. I'm willing to discard last season because of his injuries, but my concern level is certainly highest with him.

And oh yeah. Dostál's the Vezina runner-up right now.

HockeyTalk

2:36

A) Preds have been nothing short of abysmal, but the stats don't seem to back it up. They'll turn it around eventually...right? And B) if it somehow doesn't, do they sell (Nyquist, Tomasino, etc.)?

Josh Erickson

2:38

They'll turn it around, for sure. Whether they turn it around enough is the question, and I see no reason to hold onto Nyquist, even if they're *kinda* in the race at the deadline. He's not in their future plans. He's been an admirable stopgap, truly, and given them far more than what they expected. But I see no reason to hold onto him. I don't think their record dictates what they plan to do with Tomasino. I'm still puzzled there. Either trade him now or play him more, at least to get his value up. I would be surprised if he's still in Nashville next season.

Mike

2:41

At the time, Drysdale seemed like a good return for Gauthier. Understand Drysdale is hurt again, but is he ever going to live up to any of the expectations? Seems like he is not a great fit under Torts.

Josh Erickson

2:42

It's not just the length of time he's missed due to injuries, it's when. 2022-23 was his D+3 season... that's a toughie to have to sit out almost entirely. I'

I'm not sure if that's recoverable. He might be what he is.

2:43

And that was a reasonable concern at the time of the trade.

draft opinion

2:43

What do you think of Ivan Demidov' s season so far ? Do you still think long term he should have been drafted before Fs Sennecke and Lindstrom (who is still out) ?

Josh Erickson

2:45

Oh, absolutely. 19 points through 27 KHL games is even a tad better than what I was expecting from him, and I thought he was the clear-cut No. 2 prospect in the draft. He's got some things to iron out as any 18-year-old does, but he'll be a star. No doubt.

Montreal

2:46

What do the HABS' need to take the next step? Lots of good pieces but figure should some as not everyone will have a spot - i.e on D. And been following Fowler. What a goalie!!!! reason for future optimism. Maybe he will sign after this college season.

Josh Erickson

2:48

Get a defenseman. Literally any defenseman. I get the urge to blame St. Louis for how awful they've been at preventing chances against, but the roster isn't set up for success in that regard. Should they be a little bit better than they are? Maybe. But expecting Matheson and Hutson to control their minutes without better help is futile.

I get help is coming in the pipeline, but you need stop-gaps for development. They haven't gotten any out of fear of boxing young players out of a job, but they need to face competition for those spots. And when they make the team, they need help.

waiver claim

2:49

Fabbro's salary was why he lasted on waivers until Columbus ? I also though a few earlier teams could use a young RHD who was a former #1 pick.

Josh Erickson

2:51

Not really. Other teams ahead of them had cap space, although not quite as much. Still, it wouldn't have been a mitigating factor. It's more about the fact that he's 26 – how much time left is there for a resurgence? He's also not playing nearly as physical as he was a couple of years ago. I think that's detrimental and likely made a few teams shy away.

Briere

2:51

I know he got off to a similarly slow start last season, but is Foerster playing his way out of regular minutes or does Torts have a bit of a longer leash for him?

Josh Erickson

2:54

Foerster also had some of the best relative possession impacts in the league last season, something that likely gave him a longer leash. He hasn't replicated that this year. I understand that his minutes have been slashed a little in favor of Michkov. He needs to be shooting the puck a lot more, though. Again, that's harder to do when you have it less, which is why I tend to stress possession play so much. He's somehow shooting less and hitting less on a per-60 basis. That's not good.

Alright, a couple of questions left here until the top of the hour!

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